感恩節(jié)就是一個(gè)很大的考驗(yàn),。11月29日，美國(guó)零售聯(lián)合會(huì)將發(fā)布各大商家在“黑色星期五”周末的業(yè)績(jī),。但很多人預(yù)測(cè),，今年“黑五”的業(yè)績(jī)不會(huì)有什么亮點(diǎn),。波士頓咨詢(xún)集團(tuán)（BCG）最新調(diào)查也預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)民眾在接下來(lái)的幾周之中將“緊縮和節(jié)儉”。BCG高級(jí)合伙人邁克?希爾維斯滕認(rèn)為，“在今年的假日購(gòu)物季中，消費(fèi)者在購(gòu)物時(shí)將表現(xiàn)得更為謹(jǐn)慎和節(jié)約,。據(jù)預(yù)計(jì),，今年‘黑五’消費(fèi)支出的同比增長(zhǎng)速度最多能達(dá)到4.5%,，可謂是不慍不火,。”

比如,，梅西百貨,、蓋普等零售商目前已是步履維艱,，而感恩節(jié)毫無(wú)起色的業(yè)績(jī)可能會(huì)讓人們進(jìn)一步質(zhì)疑這些企業(yè)的健康狀況。受此影響,，尤其是考慮到消費(fèi)支出在美國(guó)GDP中的比重正在日漸加大這一事實(shí),，人們可能會(huì)重新審視“經(jīng)濟(jì)正在好轉(zhuǎn)”這一說(shuō)法。

Thanksgiving will be a big test of that. On Sunday, National Retail Federation will report how stores did on Black Friday weekend. And many expect sales this year to be lackluster. A recent survey by Boston Consulting Group predicted that Americans would be “tight and frugal” in coming weeks. “This holiday season, consumers are going to be cautious and frugal. Expect at best a 4.5% increase in spending over last year and a tepid Black Friday,” says BCG Senior Partner Michael J. Silverstein.

Poor Thanksgiving numbers may lead some to further question the health of a number ofstruggling retailers like Macy’sor Gap Inc.. It also may cause some to rethink the idea that the economy is improving, especially given the fact that the U.S. GDP is increasingly composed of consumer spending.

但是,，多位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示,，這種過(guò)于看重“黑五”數(shù)據(jù)的做法是不正確的，尤其是在今年,。首先,，11月零售額占到了全年總額的20%，這實(shí)際上也反映了一年其余時(shí)間零售額的比重,。如果一年中所有的零售業(yè)績(jī)呈平均分布狀態(tài),，那么11-12月購(gòu)物季的銷(xiāo)售額理應(yīng)占到總額的約16%。因此,，一個(gè)業(yè)績(jī)相對(duì)溫和的假日購(gòu)物季,，并不一定會(huì)對(duì)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)造成很大的影響。

此外,，高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)公司（High Frequency Economics,，HFE）在本周的研究紀(jì)要中寫(xiě)道，盡管“黑色星期五”周末的業(yè)績(jī)得到了不少關(guān)注,，但歷史上人們對(duì)于整體假日銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jī)的預(yù)測(cè)卻是頻頻出錯(cuò),。例如，NRF在去年的“黑五”調(diào)查中預(yù)測(cè),，消費(fèi)支出將同比下降11.3%,。然而，去年的假日季銷(xiāo)售總額卻上升了4.1%,。另一方面,，在2010,、2011和2012年，黑五調(diào)查對(duì)零售銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jī)的預(yù)估卻大大超出了實(shí)際表現(xiàn),。HFE首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家吉姆?歐蘇利文寫(xiě)道,，“總體來(lái)說(shuō)，我們認(rèn)為,，人們過(guò)于夸大了假日購(gòu)物季對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)的影響力,。”

今年,，這一點(diǎn)可能更加明顯,。到目前為止，汽油價(jià)格的超低位走勢(shì)已經(jīng)持續(xù)了一年有余,，消費(fèi)者手頭理應(yīng)會(huì)變得更為寬裕，然而,，2015年的零售業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)卻一直低于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期,。

But a number of economists suggest reading too much into Black Friday’s results would be a mistake, especially this year. For one, the fact that 20% of all retail sales occur in November actually shows just how much of our shopping we do the rest of the year. If all shopping were spread evenly throughout the year, we’d expect about 16% of sales to happen during the holiday shopping months of November and December. So a relatively “tepid” holiday shopping season doesn’t necessarily have to have a large effect on the economy as a whole.

What’s more, High Frequency Economics wrote in a research note this week that while Black Friday weekend results get a lot of attention, its track record of predicting how overall holiday sales will do is “abysmal.” Last year, for instance, the NRF’s Black Friday survey suggested a 11.3% drop in spending from a year ago. Yet, holiday sales actually rose 4.1% last year. In 2010, 2011, 2012, on the other hand, the Black Friday survey significantly overstated the strength of retail sales. “In general, we believe the importance of the holiday shopping season for overall economic trends is greatly exaggerated,” wrote HFE’s Chief U.S. Economist Jim O’Sullivan.

And that may be even more true this year. Retail sales growth in 2015 has been weaker than economists were expecting, especially when considering how cheap gas prices—which should put extra spending money in consumer’s pockets—have been for more than a year now.

然而，零售業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)的放緩實(shí)際上并未拖累整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),。12月1日,，鑒于企業(yè)投資和住房修建的增加,，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局上調(diào)了對(duì)第三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)估。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家堅(jiān)信,，今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速至少會(huì)與去年2.4%的增速持平，而這有助于略微提振明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速,。他們之所以能有此想法,，其中的一個(gè)原因便在于商業(yè)投資的增長(zhǎng),。大蕭條之后經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的特點(diǎn)之一便是商業(yè)投資的異常疲軟，但生產(chǎn)力和薪資的增長(zhǎng)卻需要商業(yè)投資來(lái)拉動(dòng),。

市場(chǎng)研究公司Renaissance Macro Research經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)部負(fù)責(zé)人內(nèi)爾?都塔指出,，歷史證明,，在經(jīng)歷了緩慢增長(zhǎng)期之后,，資本市場(chǎng)往往會(huì)出現(xiàn)反向的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。他在上周寫(xiě)給客戶(hù)的研究紀(jì)要中提到,，“如果過(guò)去是一個(gè)序幕,，那么我們應(yīng)該能夠預(yù)見(jiàn)到,，商業(yè)投資支出的增速將在2015年的基礎(chǔ)上有所加速,?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

But this slow down in retail sales growth hasn’t actually dragged down overall economic growth. On Tuesday, The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised up its estimate for third quarter economic growth, helped by increased corporate investment and more home building.

This uptick in business investment is one reason why some economists are confident that economic growth will at least match last year’s rate of 2.4% and help power the economy to slightly faster growth next year. One of the traits that has defined the recovery following the Great Recession is very weak business investment, which is needed to fuel productivity and wage growth.

But as Neil Dutta, Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro Research points out, history shows that following periods of slow capital growth, a reversion to the trend usually happens. “If past is prologue, we should expect business investment spending to accelerate from its 2015 pace,” Dutta wrote in a research note to clients last week.

Not only will increased business investment boost GDP growth, it could also accelerate wage gains through productivity growth. And if wages rise, we could begin to see retail sales rise from the mediocre levels that has characterized 2015.