談到全球化的前景,，企業(yè)經(jīng)理人通常都是一片樂觀，也確實(shí)合情合理,。全球化讓世界各地的聯(lián)系越來越密切,，每年全球范圍內(nèi)交易的商品與服務(wù)超過30萬億美元，企業(yè)投資規(guī)模突破1萬億美元,。信息技術(shù)和交通的進(jìn)步為全球化推波助瀾,，將發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家與發(fā)展中國(guó)家聯(lián)系在一起，已經(jīng)幫助約4億人脫貧,。

世界各國(guó)通過全球貿(mào)易與投資密切關(guān)聯(lián),，潮流滾滾向前,。相應(yīng)地,，企業(yè)經(jīng)理往往將全球化視為不可避免的強(qiáng)大力量而敬畏不已——說得好像是一項(xiàng)科技突破,，如果跟本公司扯不上就說全球化會(huì)改變世界未來潮流。他們常常自認(rèn)為是全球化的佼佼者,，就像發(fā)掘和征服千里之外的處女地任務(wù)的探險(xiǎn)者,。

對(duì)于全球化能給所在公司帶來多少盈利，企業(yè)經(jīng)理人也非常樂觀,。他們渴望兩位數(shù)的銷售增長(zhǎng)潛力,。只要將業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移海外就有望將降低至少一半成本的機(jī)會(huì)也實(shí)在吸引人。于是,，他們率領(lǐng)公司踏入了全球市場(chǎng),，尋找無盡的財(cái)富。

然而,，機(jī)會(huì)跟現(xiàn)實(shí)往往不是一回事,。雖然全球化會(huì)帶來希望，但也艱險(xiǎn)重重,。管理者常常發(fā)現(xiàn)不了風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，有時(shí)則會(huì)忽視。遺憾的是,，在這個(gè)奉行全球戰(zhàn)略的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)世界,，企業(yè)很難將潛在收益轉(zhuǎn)化為實(shí)際盈利。大部分公司沒能調(diào)整好自身定位,，無法充分利用全球化的優(yōu)勢(shì),，不少公司還在全球化探索之路上遭遇慘敗。

中國(guó)就是個(gè)全球化探索時(shí)要警惕的地方,。這個(gè)國(guó)家擁有13億以上的人口,，市場(chǎng)潛力也是億萬級(jí)別規(guī)模，開拓中國(guó)市場(chǎng)足以令任何一位經(jīng)理人兩眼放光,。中國(guó)的潛力看似是無窮無盡的,。

可要是進(jìn)一步調(diào)查就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，西方企業(yè)在中國(guó)遇到的挑戰(zhàn)巨大,。

第一道障礙來自經(jīng)濟(jì),。自1979年向全球貿(mào)易和投資開放國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)以來，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)取得長(zhǎng)足進(jìn)步,，但中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的發(fā)展仍然落后于西方,。

第二道障礙在文化方面。例如中國(guó)消費(fèi)者和西方消費(fèi)者的偏好很不一樣,，西方企業(yè)想取悅中國(guó)消費(fèi)者就有點(diǎn)困難,。

第三道障礙源于政治層面。中國(guó)的地方和全國(guó)政治網(wǎng)絡(luò)錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜,，西方企業(yè)想處理好各方關(guān)系并不容易,。

鑒于所有這些因素,，通用電氣的首席執(zhí)行官杰夫?伊梅爾特得出這一結(jié)論：“中國(guó)市場(chǎng)是很大，但很難下手,?！?/p>

沃爾瑪就在征戰(zhàn)中國(guó)的過程中收獲了慘痛的教訓(xùn)。自從1996年在深圳開設(shè)首家超市以來,，沃爾瑪一路困難重重,，體現(xiàn)出沃爾瑪壓根不了解中國(guó)的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和文化環(huán)境,。

首先,，沃爾瑪就不了解中國(guó)消費(fèi)者和中國(guó)文化。和美國(guó)不同,，中國(guó)每個(gè)城市的消費(fèi)者的需求差別很大,。所以，沃爾瑪在25個(gè)省117個(gè)城市很難找到適合當(dāng)?shù)氐漠a(chǎn)品組合,。因此,，沃爾瑪只能在全中國(guó)銷售統(tǒng)一的核心產(chǎn)品組合，結(jié)果壓力很大,。

而且,，沃爾瑪沒能處理好同全國(guó)和地方政界的關(guān)系，卷入了各種糾紛,。中國(guó)政府還曾因違反地方和全國(guó)法規(guī)對(duì)沃爾瑪處以罰款,，甚至迫使其因所謂的產(chǎn)品違規(guī)而暫時(shí)關(guān)閉店面。雖然認(rèn)為這些指控毫無理由,，沃爾瑪也被迫認(rèn)罰,。

沃爾瑪面臨最大挑戰(zhàn)還是經(jīng)濟(jì)方面。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施并不完善又問題多多,，沃爾瑪?shù)搅酥袊?guó)最大的一項(xiàng)優(yōu)勢(shì)沒法發(fā)揮出來：技術(shù)先進(jìn)而且效率極高的供應(yīng)鏈,。沃爾瑪沒能預(yù)計(jì)到，原本的商業(yè)模式在中國(guó)會(huì)面臨諸多問題,。其磕磕碰碰的中國(guó)征途凸顯出,，將高效的供應(yīng)鏈，也就是物流的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)應(yīng)用于一個(gè)技術(shù)不成熟,，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施又不完善的國(guó)家有多么困難,。

過去好些年，中國(guó)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資在全球名列前茅,，但除了上海,、北京、天津,、廣州,、深圳等大城市,，其他地區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施依然有很多問題。中國(guó)地域廣闊,，航空,、陸地和鐵路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施均未達(dá)到發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家標(biāo)準(zhǔn),，在各地區(qū)之間高效運(yùn)輸商品就成為一大挑戰(zhàn),。有鑒于此，沃爾瑪在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的業(yè)務(wù)難以盈利,，坐擁規(guī)模巨大盈利前景很好的市場(chǎng)卻一直表現(xiàn)不佳,，并不令人意外。

沃爾瑪在中國(guó)遇挫的教訓(xùn)就是,，企業(yè)經(jīng)理人在考慮全球化時(shí)不是一般的樂觀,，多數(shù)時(shí)候是樂觀得過分了，他們經(jīng)常高估全球化的收益,，又小看要付出的代價(jià),。在評(píng)估全球化的機(jī)遇時(shí)，管理者經(jīng)常只看到機(jī)遇的一面,，把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)拋在腦后,。然而，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與機(jī)遇如影隨形,，管理者卻沒能準(zhǔn)確考慮到進(jìn)軍全球市場(chǎng)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。

企業(yè)經(jīng)理人常常為了一舉贏得全球市場(chǎng)做出危險(xiǎn)的假設(shè)。他們自以為有了在本國(guó)成功盈利的商業(yè)模式,，只要全盤復(fù)制到其他國(guó)家就能收獲同樣的盈利水平,。這些經(jīng)理人根本沒考慮國(guó)家之間的明顯差異，以及差異導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能對(duì)業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)生怎樣的負(fù)面影響,。不幸的是,，他們最終在艱難的全球化中了解到，即使是最完美的全球化方案,，也無法克服國(guó)家差異帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。沃爾瑪這樣的巨頭也不例外。

為了提高全球業(yè)務(wù)水平,，更好地制定全球擴(kuò)張的決策,，企業(yè)經(jīng)理人需要更深入了解想要開展業(yè)務(wù)的國(guó)家，把握當(dāng)?shù)氐慕?jīng)濟(jì),、政治和文化環(huán)境,。他們必須理解國(guó)家之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治和文化差異,，以及各種差異會(huì)增加多少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（和成本）,，然后結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素重新考慮現(xiàn)有的戰(zhàn)略和財(cái)務(wù)決策模式,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者羅伯特?所羅門在紐約大學(xué)斯特恩商學(xué)院任國(guó)際管理全職教授，從事全球化和全球戰(zhàn)略研究將近20年,。本文節(jié)選自他的作品《全球視野：企業(yè)如何克服全球化陷阱》（Global Vision: How Companies Can Overcome the Pitfalls of Globalization）,。該書由出版商Palgrave Macmillan出版，獲得授權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)載,。

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

Managers tend to speak optimistically about the prospects of globalization, and for good reason. Globalization has fostered an increasingly interconnected world, with more than $30 trillion in goods and services traded and more than $1 trillion in corporate investment each year. Advances in information technology and transportation have helped facilitate globalization—connecting developed and developing worlds, lifting some 400 million people out of poverty along the way.

Nations are now inextricably linked through global trade and investment. There is no turning back. Accordingly, managers often view globalization as a powerful and inevitable force, and they tend to treat it with reverence—speaking of it as if it were a breakthrough technology, the wave of the future that will change the world, if not their companies’ fortunes. And they tend to think of themselves as the champions of globalization, akin to explorers embarking on a mission to discover and conquer far-off, unexplored lands.

Managers express their optimism for globalization in terms of the profitability it can generate for their companies. They salivate at the potential for double-digit sales growth. They are seduced by opportunities that promise to slash costs by half or more, simply by shifting operations overseas. And they lead their companies on journeys to global markets in search of untapped and untold riches.

However, opportunity and reality do not always coincide. Although globalization certainly holds promise, it is also rife with hazards. It presents risks that managers fail to appreciate and that they often overlook. Sadly, in the high-stakes world of global strategy, companies regularly fail to convert potential into profits. Most companies are poorly positioned to capitalize on globalization’s potential, and many are spectacularly unsuccessful in their attempts to globalize.

China provides the setting for a classic cautionary tale about globalization. Given a population of more than 1.3 billionpeople and the market potential that goes hand in hand with a consumer base of that size, the prospect of expanding to China is enough to make any manager’s eyes light up. The potential is seemingly limitless.

But on further inspection, it becomes clear that China poses tremendous challenges for Western companies. The first obstacle is economic. Though China has made tremendous strides and enjoyed incredible growth since opening its markets to global trade and investment in 1979, the development of its economic institutions and its infrastructure has lagged behind that in the West. The second obstacle is cultural. Chinese consumers, for example, tend to be very different from those in the West, which makes it difficult for Western companies to appeal to local consumer tastes. The third obstacle is political. Western companies struggle to skillfully navigate China’s complex web of local and national political organizations. All of these factors led G.E.’s CEO Jeff Immelt to conclude: “China is big, but it is hard.”

Walmart has learned these lessons the hard way. Walmart’s ongoing troubles in China, since opening its first superstore in Shenzhen in 1996, reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of China’s political, economic, and cultural environments.

The American retailer has struggled to understand Chinese consumers and Chinese culture. Chinese consumers, unlike those in the U.S., differ widely from city to city in their needs. Walmart therefore struggles to find the right product mix to offer in the 117 cities and 25 provinces in which it operates. This makes it challenging to sell a core set of products nationwide.

Walmart has also suffered from troubled relationships with politicians—both local and national. The company has had its fair share of run-ins with the law. On one occasion the Chinese government fined Walmart for violating local and national laws and even forced it to close stores temporarily for purported product violations. Walmart paid the fines, even though the company believed the claims to be unfounded.

Yet the company’s greatest challenge remains an economic infrastructure that is problematic and underdeveloped. China simply cannot accommodate one of Walmart’s greatest strengths: an ultra-efficient and technologically advanced supply chain. The company did not anticipate that scaling up its business model there would present so many problems. Walmart’s struggles highlight the difficulties inherent in transferring a competitive advantage rooted in supply-chain efficiency—that is, logistics—to a country lacking a sophisticated technological and physical infrastructure.

Although China has led the globe in infrastructure investment over the past several years, outside of its largest cities (e.g., Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen), its infrastructure remains more than problematic. The efficient transport of goods from one region to another is a challenge because of China’s sheer physical size, and because its air, ground, and rail infrastructure does not meet developed country standards. Not surprisingly, Walmart’s China business has struggled to generate profits, and it has consistently underperformed in this huge and potentially lucrative market.

The lesson in all of this is that, when it comes to globalization, managers are not just optimists; all too often, they are unbridled optimists. They habitually overestimate the benefits of globalization and underestimate its costs. In evaluating globalization opportunities, managers often forget the other side of the opportunity equation: risk. Risk goes hand in hand with opportunity, and managers fail to accurately account for the risks they face in global markets.

Managers often make dangerous assumptions about what it takes to succeed in global markets. They tend to assume that their current business model, one they successfully and profitably exploit in their home country, will translate simply and effectively to other countries, yielding similar levels of profitability. These same managers fail to account for real and salient differences between nations, and fail to consider how those differences generate operational risks that may negatively impact their business. Unfortunately, they end up learning the hard way that the risk borne out of cross-country differences can overwhelm even the best-laid globalization plans. And Walmart is no exception.

To improve the practice of global business and to make better global expansion decisions, managers need a more sophisticated understanding of the economic, political, and cultural environments in the countries in which they intend to operate. They must appreciate how nations differ economically, politically, and culturally, and how those differences manifest as increasing risks (and costs). They then need to incorporate those risks into their existing strategy and financial decision models.

Robert Salomon is a professor of International Management and Faculty Scholar at NYU’s Stern School of Business and has researched globalization and global strategy for nearly 20 years. This article is excerpted from his book, Global Vision: How Companies Can Overcome the Pitfalls of Globalization. Published by Palgrave Macmillan; reproduced by permission.