萬豪國際集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官蘇安勵(lì)即將迎來職業(yè)生涯中一場(chǎng)重大考驗(yàn)，接下來的幾周內(nèi),，不知他將如何破解這一難題,。實(shí)際上，我們已經(jīng)見過許多類似情形：萬豪集團(tuán)打算收購另一家公司——喜達(dá)屋酒店與度假村集團(tuán)，后者已經(jīng)同意萬豪的收購邀約,，這筆收購原定今年年中就能達(dá)成,。但中國安邦保險(xiǎn)集團(tuán)突然橫空殺出，向喜達(dá)屋拋出一個(gè)更高的收購價(jià)格,。蘇安勵(lì)該怎么辦,？

目前看來，喜達(dá)屋臨陣倒戈的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是很高的,。盡管無論是從客戶數(shù)量,，還是從營收來看，萬豪都是目前全球最大的酒店公司,，但即便對(duì)于財(cái)大氣粗的萬豪來說,，這項(xiàng)收購也是一筆舉足輕重的大交易。2014年萬豪集團(tuán)的年收益約為138美元,，而萬豪收購喜達(dá)屋的要約價(jià)格也達(dá)到122億美元,。

蘇安勵(lì)面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí)問題是：天價(jià)收購有可能無法給股東帶來價(jià)值，這可能出于多種原因,，比如兩家企業(yè)整合不暢,、文化沖突、戰(zhàn)略瑕疵等等,，但最常見的原因也更加世俗,。那就是收購方出價(jià)太高。倘若如此,，這筆交易就無可救藥,。而出價(jià)過高，恰恰是目前情勢(shì)創(chuàng)造的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。

下面來說一下為什么,。安邦已經(jīng)顯露出一個(gè)非理性收購者的跡象，有可能以極高的價(jià)格競(jìng)價(jià),。2014年,，該公司同意以19.5億美元的價(jià)格收購曼哈頓“地王”華爾道夫－阿斯托利亞酒店。在這之前,，另兩家中資公司剛剛收購了紐約另兩座地標(biāo)性酒店——皇冠假日酒店和卡萊爾酒店,。

就在上周，安邦集團(tuán)剛剛同意斥資65億美元,，收購百仕通集團(tuán)幾個(gè)月前剛剛出資40億美金買下的多家豪華酒店資產(chǎn),。在收購喜達(dá)屋的問題上，安邦愿意全部以現(xiàn)金收購,，而萬豪集團(tuán)主要用股票,。安邦之所以愿意高價(jià)收購喜達(dá)屋,，還可能是因?yàn)樗朐诤Ｍ馐召彶糠钟操Y產(chǎn)，以避免人民幣進(jìn)一步貶值,。另一種可能是,，安邦CEO吳小輝試圖將一些個(gè)人財(cái)富轉(zhuǎn)移到海外，就像許多中國富豪現(xiàn)在正在做的那樣,。而萬豪集團(tuán)則沒有這些動(dòng)力,。

我們現(xiàn)在還不知道蘇安勵(lì)的出價(jià)底線是多少。不過,，如果安邦集團(tuán)成功競(jìng)購喜達(dá)屋,，相對(duì)于萬豪而言，喜達(dá)屋仍是一個(gè)規(guī)模較小的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,，萬豪仍將保持世界最大酒店業(yè)公司的地位,，同時(shí)還能獲得一筆高達(dá)4億美元的“分手費(fèi)”。另外,，美國或其他國家的監(jiān)管部門也不一定批準(zhǔn)安邦對(duì)喜達(dá)屋的收購案,。

在安邦有意收購喜達(dá)屋的消息公開后，萬豪集團(tuán)的股價(jià)反而有所上漲,?；蛟S是因?yàn)橥顿Y者們認(rèn)為萬豪也能從這筆交易中有所斬獲，要么就是覺得萬豪的收購價(jià)已經(jīng)太高了,，放棄收購喜達(dá)屋或許是更好的選擇,。

更有趣的是，根據(jù)現(xiàn)有協(xié)議,，喜達(dá)屋與其他收購意向者接觸的期限在3月17日截止,。喜達(dá)屋和萬豪的股東將于3月28日就這筆交易進(jìn)行投票表決。

總之,，蘇安勵(lì)正面臨著其CEO生涯中最大的一個(gè)難題,。且看他如何破解。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

It’s crunch time for Marriott CEO Arne Sorenson, and we’ll get a close-up view of high-stakes leadership over the coming weeks. In general terms his situation is one we’ve seen many times. He has a deal to buy another company, Starwood Hotels and Resorts, which was agreed to last fall and set to close mid-year. Now a surprising newcomer, China’s Anbang Insurance, has made a higher bid. What should Sorenson do?

The stakes are high. This would be a big deal even for Marriott MAR -0.73% , creating by far the world’s biggest hotel company by number of rooms and by revenue. The money is significant; Marriott would spend about $12.2 billion for Starwood HOT 0.29% , while its 2014 annual revenue was about $13.8 billion.

And here’s the real issue for Sorenson: Big mergers can fail to deliver value to shareholders for many reasons – botched integration of the two businesses, cultural wars, unwise strategy – but the most common reason is more mundane. The buyer pays too much. In that case, nothing can rescue the deal, and paying too much is precisely the danger the current situation creates.

Here’s why. Anbang shows signs of being a possibly irrational buyer that might be willing to bid way too high. In 2014, the company agreed to pay $1.95 billion for the Waldorf-Astoria in Manhattan, a trophy property, after other Chinese buyers had bought two other New York trophy hotels, the Plaza and the Carlyle. Just last week, Anbang agreed to pay $6.5 billion for a collection of luxury hotels that Blackstone Group had bought for $4 billion only four months earlier. And Anbang is offering all cash, while Marriott’s offer is largely stock. Other potential motivations for Anbang: It may want to buy hard assets outside of China before the yuan loses more value, and it may be a wish by CEO Wu Xiaohui, reportedly a billionaire, to move some personal wealth out of the country, as many wealthy Chinese are doing. Those motives wouldn’t apply to Marriott.

We can’t know the bottom line on Sorenson’s financial calculations. Among the factors: If Anbang buys Starwood, then Starwood remains a smaller competitor while Marriott remains the world’s largest hotel company, and Marriott would collect a $400 million breakup fee. There’s no assurance that regulators in the U.S. or elsewhere would approve an Anbang-Starwood deal. When Anbang’s bid became public on Monday, Marriott stock rose. Either investors think Marriott may also be in play, or they think Marriott was already paying too much and would be better off if the deal doesn’t happen.

And just to add some excitement, under the existing deal, Starwood has only until Thursday to talk to other bidders. Starwood and Marriott shareholders are scheduled to vote on the deal on March 28.

Sorenson faces some of the most important decisions of his CEO career. Watch and learn.