一個(gè)時(shí)代可能即將終結(jié),。

iPhone橫空出世革新手機(jī)行業(yè)已近10年，現(xiàn)在的問題是智能手機(jī)是否已經(jīng)進(jìn)化到極限,，因?yàn)榫瓦B蘋果公司都把4英尺小屏幕的老款手機(jī)拿出來當(dāng)新品炒,。

行業(yè)專家相信，智能手機(jī)的創(chuàng)新已經(jīng)不再局限于掌上設(shè)備本身,，而是各種各樣的新設(shè)備上作為軟件或服務(wù)出現(xiàn)的手機(jī)功能，從智能汽車,、智能冰箱,、智能手表到智能首飾等等創(chuàng)新節(jié)奏都在加快。

分析師和產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)師指出,，就屏幕尺寸,、電池壽命和網(wǎng)絡(luò)容量而言，目前智能手機(jī)硬件已經(jīng)接近承受極限,，很難再有新突破,。

克里斯蒂安?林德霍爾姆曾發(fā)明老式諾基亞手機(jī)上的快捷輸入鍵盤，這項(xiàng)發(fā)明讓諾基亞手機(jī)成為歷史上最暢銷的移動(dòng)設(shè)備,。林德霍爾姆說：“現(xiàn)在手機(jī)領(lǐng)域的所有改進(jìn)都是漸進(jìn)的,，稍微快一點(diǎn)兒，稍微大一點(diǎn)兒,，存儲(chǔ)空間稍微多一點(diǎn)兒,，或者分辨率稍微高一點(diǎn)兒?！?/p>

這牽涉到大量經(jīng)濟(jì)利益,，因?yàn)槿ツ甑资澜缟献畲蟮娜疑鲜泄尽O果、谷歌和微軟的未來可能會(huì)取決于誰能率先實(shí)現(xiàn)突破淘汰手機(jī),。

許多公司都在探索新的互動(dòng)方式,，幫助消費(fèi)者通過觸覺、視覺和聽覺與外界溝通,。

方法之一就是通過聲音激活個(gè)人助理設(shè)備,，比如嵌入微型麥克風(fēng)的“智能”項(xiàng)鏈以及可按照語音命令工作的微型耳塞。

全球的頂尖科技公司都在智能設(shè)備領(lǐng)域進(jìn)展迅速,，Google Now,、蘋果Siri、微軟的Cortana和亞馬遜的Alexa現(xiàn)在都能為用戶閱讀文字或電子郵件，回答實(shí)際問題,，操作手機(jī),，進(jìn)行基本通信或者查找地圖。

獨(dú)立金融分析師理查德?溫莎認(rèn)為：“就總的發(fā)展趨勢來說,，智能設(shè)備正在成為連接用戶數(shù)字生活的新渠道,。”

林德霍爾姆經(jīng)營的公司叫KoruLab,，主要為可穿戴設(shè)備開發(fā)簡潔但極為高效的軟件,。在他看來，智能手機(jī)的功能有兩類,，一類屬于能提供豐富娛樂體驗(yàn)的大尺寸產(chǎn)品,，另一類則屬于更注重實(shí)際生活的小型可穿戴設(shè)備，比如日程提醒,，健康水平監(jiān)測以及購買商品或服務(wù)等,。

瑞銀金融分析師估算，今年智能手機(jī)廠商的收入將超過3230億美元,，同比下降1.4%,。研究機(jī)構(gòu)Strategy Analytics預(yù)計(jì)，蘋果一家就會(huì)占據(jù)50%以上的收入和75%以上的利潤,。

為扭轉(zhuǎn)iPhone銷量下滑的趨勢,，蘋果最新推出了一系列新產(chǎn)品，包括更便宜的4英寸iPhone SE,。

谷歌的收入幾乎全部來自各類網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)中的廣告,，而不是安卓系統(tǒng)，盡管世界上約80%的手機(jī)都在使用這個(gè)系統(tǒng),。

谷歌對移動(dòng)廣告的收入規(guī)模諱莫如深,。但分析師估算，2015年谷歌披露的750億美元收入中,，約四分之一到三分之一來自移動(dòng)廣告,。

微軟收購諾基亞手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)后毫無建樹，還損失了76億美元,，去年微軟已全面撤出手機(jī)市場,。微軟的策略正逐漸轉(zhuǎn)向出售云服務(wù)，通過后臺(tái)移動(dòng)軟件賺錢,，目前云服務(wù)已經(jīng)成為微軟增長最快的業(yè)務(wù),。

手機(jī)就像電子時(shí)代的瑞士軍刀，但它們最吸引人之處已經(jīng)從搶眼的閃亮屏幕和光滑的邊角變成了其中運(yùn)行的軟件和服務(wù),，而且往往是存儲(chǔ)在云端的聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù),。

鮑勃?奧唐納是加州福斯特城咨詢公司Technalysis Research的消費(fèi)電子行業(yè)分析師兼總裁,。他說：“移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)正逐漸將所有設(shè)備連結(jié)起來?！?/p>

無論將來哪個(gè)平臺(tái)可能取代手機(jī),，都需要解決電池續(xù)航這個(gè)無法擺脫的問題。隨著消費(fèi)者看視頻越來越多,，增加待機(jī)時(shí)間也變得越發(fā)急迫,。

下一代設(shè)備還需要更加柔軟而且能在不同亮度下工作的屏幕。幾十年來,，移動(dòng)設(shè)備的狂熱粉絲們一直在急切盼望,，但多年來三星和LG等知名行業(yè)龍頭一直無法實(shí)現(xiàn)平價(jià)量產(chǎn)可彎曲屏幕。

理查德?溫莎認(rèn)為,，可折疊或者平鋪時(shí)可達(dá)10英尺甚至14英尺的柔軟屏幕將使手機(jī)突破屏幕尺寸的概念,。他說：“平板電腦是什么？為什么還要用平板,？平板電腦市場可能會(huì)在一夜之間就消失了,。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

It could be the end of an era.

Nearly a decade after the iPhone broke the mold for mobile phones the question is now being asked whether the evolution of the smartphone has finally come to an end as even Apple now treats older, smaller 4-inch screens as something new.

Industry experts believe innovation in smartphones is giving way to phone functions popping up as software or services in all manner of new devices from cars to fridges to watches and jewelry rather than remaining with handheld devices.

And analysts and product designers said fresh breakthroughs are running up against the practical limits of what’s possible in current smartphone hardware in terms of screen size, battery life and network capacity.

“Everything in the phone industry now is incremental: slightly faster, slightly bigger, slightly more storage or better resolution,” said Christian Lindholm, inventor of the easy text-messaging keyboards in old Nokia phones that made them the best-selling mobile devices of all time.

The financial stakes are high as the futures of Apple AAPL 0.70% , Google GOOGL -0.28% , and Microsoft MSFT 0.48% , the world’s three biggest listed companies at the end of last year, may now turn on who gets the jump on making handsets redundant.

Many firms are experimenting with new ways to help consumers interact with the wider world through touch, sight and sound.

These include voice-activated personal assistant devices dangling from “smart jewelry” necklaces with tiny embedded microphones or tiny earpieces that get things done for us based on our verbal commands.

The world’s biggest tech companies have made real progress in this arena with Google Now, Apple Siri, Microsoft Cortana and Amazon.com‘s AMZN 1.18% Alexa now able to read texts or emails for users, answer practical questions, control phone features, handle basic communications or read a map.

“The way the whole thing is evolving, the device itself is becoming just another way to provide access to a user’s digital life,” said independent financial analyst Richard Windsor.

Lindholm now runs KoruLab, developers of compact, ultra-efficient software for running wearable devices. He sees smartphone functions splitting into two camps—big-screen devices for rich entertainment and compact wearables for more transactional activities like keeping up with one’s calendar, health or fitness monitoring or paying for goods or services.

Financial analysts at UBS UBS -0.65% estimate smartphone makers will generate more than $323 billion in revenue this year, a 1.4% decline from last year. Apple alone took in half of that revenue and more than three quarters of all profits, according to research firm Strategy Analytics.

Seeking to reverse declining iPhone sales, Apple announced a range of new products including a cheaper 4-inch screen iPhone SE.

Google generates virtually all of its revenue from advertising sold alongside its wide variety of Web services, rather than from its Android software, which drives roughly 80% of the world’s phones.

It is cagey about how much revenue comes from mobile advertising, but analysts estimate this contributed roughly a quarter to a third of its $75 billion revenue reported in 2015.

Last year Microsoft pulled back from the handset business, writing off $7.6 billion for its fruitless acquisition of Nokia’s handset business. Increasingly, its strategy has become to make money off the back-end of mobile software, through selling cloud-based services, now its fastest growing business.

For while phones are now the Swiss Army knives of the electronic age, their essential appeal to consumers has shifted from their eye-catching shiny screens and sleek bevelled edges to the apps and services running on the phones, often as Internet-based services hosted in the cloud.

“Mobile networks are moving to connect to all these other devices,” said Bob O’Donnell, a consumer electronics analyst and president of Technalysis Research in Foster City, Calif.

Whatever platform might displace the handheld phone also will need to resolve nagging questions about battery life, which have become more pressing as consumers watch more and more video.

The next big device also needs more flexible screenscapable of working in different lighting conditions. That’s a decades-old dream of gadget enthusiasts that has eluded recognized market leaders Samsung SSNLF -2.44% and LG of Korea, which have struggled for years to mass-produce flexible screens at anything close to mass-market prices.

Richard Windsor said flexible displays that could be unfolded or unrolled to up to 10 or 14 inches would set phones free from being defined by screen size. “What is a tablet computer?” Windsor asks. “Why would you bother having a tablet? That market would just evaporate overnight,” he said.