無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)的優(yōu)點(diǎn)之一,，就是據(jù)說(shuō)它比有人駕駛汽車(chē)要更安全,。根據(jù)全美公路交通安全管理局的統(tǒng)計(jì)，在所有車(chē)禍中,，有高達(dá)94%的比例是由人為失誤導(dǎo)致的,，這些人為失誤包括酒駕、超速,、分心和疲勞駕駛等,。

不過(guò)近日的一份研究報(bào)告顯示，無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)不論進(jìn)行多少小時(shí)的測(cè)試,，都不足以確定其安全性,。

該報(bào)告來(lái)自美國(guó)著名智庫(kù)蘭德公司。報(bào)告稱(chēng),，無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)恐怕需要經(jīng)過(guò)“幾億甚至幾千億英里的路試”,，才能獲得足夠的信息來(lái)比較出它與有人駕駛汽車(chē)二者哪個(gè)安全系數(shù)更高。這樣徹底的測(cè)試可能需要“幾十年甚至幾百年的時(shí)間”,。要想在交付消費(fèi)者正常使用前完成如此巨量的測(cè)試任務(wù),，顯然是不切實(shí)際的。

根據(jù)來(lái)自美國(guó)交通部的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，2013年,，美國(guó)有229萬(wàn)人在車(chē)禍中受傷，32,028人因車(chē)禍死亡,。這些數(shù)字雖然觸目驚心,，卻是建立在美國(guó)人民每年要合計(jì)駕車(chē)行駛3萬(wàn)億英里的基礎(chǔ)上的。

這份研究報(bào)告的聯(lián)合撰稿人,、蘭德公司的高級(jí)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家蘇珊?帕多克在公司的一份聲明中表示：“在研發(fā)無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)的公司中,，最長(zhǎng)記錄在案的路試?yán)锍淌?30萬(wàn)英里，光是如此也耗費(fèi)了好幾年的時(shí)間,。即便無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)進(jìn)行了1000萬(wàn)英里的路試,，我們也無(wú)法對(duì)它的安全性和可靠性給出統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義上的結(jié)論,。”

蘭德公司的研究人員還指出,，無(wú)人駕駛行業(yè)有必要開(kāi)發(fā)其它的測(cè)試方法,，以檢驗(yàn)無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)是否真的比有人駕駛汽車(chē)安全。

據(jù)谷歌公司披露,，該公司的無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)項(xiàng)目啟動(dòng)以來(lái),，其測(cè)試車(chē)輛已經(jīng)出過(guò)大大小小十余次事故。不過(guò)谷歌還表示,，所有事故都是由人為因素導(dǎo)致的,。（但是截止到目前，谷歌測(cè)試車(chē)上的真人駕駛員也成功避免了13次事故的發(fā)生,。）話(huà)雖如此,，但從密歇根大學(xué)交通研究所的研究人員布蘭登?舒特勒和邁克爾?席瓦克提供的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)發(fā)生事故的機(jī)率高達(dá)有人駕駛汽車(chē)的五倍,。他們還發(fā)現(xiàn),，同樣在發(fā)生交通事故時(shí)，無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)的成員受傷的人數(shù)要高于傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē),，但目前尚無(wú)無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)導(dǎo)致乘員死亡的報(bào)告,。

舒特勒和席瓦克的這份分析報(bào)告發(fā)布于2015年10月，所用的數(shù)據(jù)部分來(lái)自加州有關(guān)部門(mén)的公開(kāi)數(shù)據(jù),，但更多的數(shù)據(jù)還是來(lái)自谷歌,。他們將有關(guān)事故數(shù)據(jù)與2013年的全美道路交通安全記錄進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。研究人員指出,，各大無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)公司所記錄的路試?yán)锍膛c傳統(tǒng)的有人駕駛汽車(chē)相比,，還是很低的。

從現(xiàn)有事故報(bào)告來(lái)看,，在任何一起事故中,，無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)都不是主要過(guò)錯(cuò)方。它們往往是在停車(chē)或者在車(chē)流中緩慢移動(dòng)時(shí)被其他車(chē)輛撞擊,，最頻繁的事故就是被追尾,。

另外，隨著技術(shù)的持續(xù)突飛猛進(jìn),，將來(lái)與無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)有關(guān)的事故數(shù)量也可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步下降,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

One of the arguments for self-driving cars is thatthey will be safer than human-driven vehicles.Human error is the cause of 94% of car crashes, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Those errors include drunk driving, speeding, distraction, and fatigue.

But a new report finds that self-driving cars can’t be tested enough hours to determine their safety.

Thereport from research firm RAND Corporation says autonomous vehicles would need to be tested “hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles” to gain enough information to compare its safety to human-driven automobiles. Such thorough testing would require “tens and sometimes hundreds of years,” which would make it impractical to accomplish before clearing the vehicles for regular consumer use, the report said.

According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, there were 2.29 million auto-related injuries and 32,028 fatalities on the highways in 2013. However, those numbers come in the context of the 3 trillion total miles driven annually in the U.S.

“The most autonomous miles any developer has logged are about 1.3 million, and that took several years,” study co-author and RAND senior statistician Susan Paddock said in a company statement. “Even if autonomous vehicle fleets are driven 10 million miles, one still would not be able to draw statistical conclusions about safety and reliability.”

The RAND researchers say that industry needs to develop other ways to examine whether self-driving vehicles are safer than those piloted by humans.

Google has said there have been more than a dozen accidents with its self-driving cars since the self-driving car project began. But it has said all of those were caused by humans. (However, human drivers have prevented the autonomous vehicles fromcausing an accident 13 times so far.)

Still, data from researchers Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute found that self-driving vehicles have been nearly five times as likely to get into accidents as those driven by humans. They also saw somewhat elevated numbers of injuries per crash compared to normal traffic but no fatalities.

Schoettle and Sivak based their October 2015 analysis on available data from California as well as more extensive data from Google. They then compared the number of accidents to 2013 national safety records. The researchers noted that the amount of recorded miles was low compared to conventional traffic.

The automated cars weren’t at fault in any of the crashes. Instead, they were struck when stopped or moving slowly in traffic and most frequently were rear-ended.

Also, as the technology continues to advance rapidly, improvements might help reduce the number of accidents involving self-driving cars going forward.