在競(jìng)相開發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車的過(guò)程中,，美國(guó)和歐洲在技術(shù)上處于領(lǐng)先位置，但中國(guó)正沿著“外道”迅速追趕上來(lái),，而且中國(guó)的監(jiān)管機(jī)制有可能讓自動(dòng)駕駛汽車率先在中國(guó)的公路和城市道路上得到普遍應(yīng)用,。

清華大學(xué)汽車工程系教授李克強(qiáng)表示，相關(guān)路線圖草案最快有望在今年公布,，內(nèi)容包括在3-5年內(nèi)推出可以在公路上行駛的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車,，以及到2025年推出適于城市行駛的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車。李克強(qiáng)是該路線圖起草委員會(huì)主席,，這個(gè)委員會(huì)則得到了工業(yè)和信息化部的支持,。

該草案將設(shè)定相應(yīng)技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，包括車輛相互通信使用的通用語(yǔ)言,、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和監(jiān)管原則,，從而形成一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的框架，這和美國(guó)各州自行設(shè)定法律和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的混亂局面完全不同,。

美國(guó)國(guó)家公路交通安全管理局前局長(zhǎng)大衛(wèi)?思特里克蘭德本月在北京的一次活動(dòng)上表示,，如果不進(jìn)行協(xié)作，上述混亂局面可能阻礙自動(dòng)駕駛汽車在美國(guó)的發(fā)展,。

這種自上而下的做法可能幫助中國(guó)超越美國(guó)和歐洲,。在歐美國(guó)家，行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)通常由汽車廠商協(xié)商確立,。同時(shí),，推廣自動(dòng)駕駛汽車和電動(dòng)汽車符合中國(guó)政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型方向，即擺脫重工業(yè)和低端制造,，讓高科技和消費(fèi)行業(yè)為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提供動(dòng)力,。

長(zhǎng)安汽車自動(dòng)駕駛汽車項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人黎予生指出，“如果我們說(shuō)服政府讓所有公司以及所有上路車輛都必須遵循這個(gè)（統(tǒng)一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)）……中國(guó)就有機(jī)會(huì)超過(guò)其他國(guó)家”,，讓自動(dòng)駕駛汽車得到廣泛使用,。

中國(guó)出現(xiàn)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車的條件已經(jīng)成熟。作為全球最大汽車市場(chǎng),，中國(guó)深受空氣污染,、交通堵塞和違章駕駛問(wèn)題困擾。世界衛(wèi)生組織估算,，中國(guó)每年有超過(guò)20萬(wàn)人死于交通事故,。

私家車遍地開花的現(xiàn)象在中國(guó)出現(xiàn)的較晚，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者往往也不像西方人那么愛開車,。2015年,，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的調(diào)查顯示，75%的中國(guó)人表示愿意乘坐自動(dòng)駕駛汽車,，在美國(guó)這個(gè)數(shù)字為50%,。波士頓咨詢公司預(yù)計(jì)，20年內(nèi)中國(guó)將成為世界上最大的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車市場(chǎng),，至少占全球需求的四分之一,。

上述路線圖草案將首先向行業(yè)以及各部委征集意見，隨后提交國(guó)務(wù)院審批,。

路線圖起草委員會(huì)成員,、同濟(jì)大學(xué)汽車學(xué)院教授白杰說(shuō)，該委員會(huì)將在最基本的層面上定義“自動(dòng)駕駛”汽車,，并確立最基本的功能,。

從另一個(gè)角度來(lái)看，中國(guó)打算把目標(biāo)定的更遠(yuǎn)一些,。委員會(huì)主席李克強(qiáng)指出,，許多車輛已經(jīng)借助數(shù)字蜂窩技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)了聯(lián)網(wǎng)，中國(guó)或許會(huì)用這項(xiàng)技術(shù)來(lái)進(jìn)行汽車通訊,，而不是歐美國(guó)家使用的專用短程通信技術(shù)（DSRC）標(biāo)準(zhǔn),。

他說(shuō)：“美國(guó),、歐洲和日本用了很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間來(lái)開發(fā)DSRC，所以它們大力向中國(guó)推薦這項(xiàng)技術(shù),。我們才剛剛起步,，為什么不選擇LTE（長(zhǎng)期演進(jìn)無(wú)線寬帶技術(shù)）或5G呢？”

按照這項(xiàng)初步規(guī)劃,，中國(guó)至少能和其他開發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車的國(guó)家并駕齊驅(qū),，甚至實(shí)現(xiàn)超越。

豐田汽車的目標(biāo)是到2020年在市場(chǎng)上推出可在公路上自動(dòng)行駛的車輛,。奔馳已在這方面研究了20年,，目前的計(jì)劃是推出某些情況下需要駕駛者控制的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車。

李克強(qiáng)說(shuō),，一些中國(guó)汽車廠商的內(nèi)部目標(biāo)和上述路線圖草案相符,，比如上汽集團(tuán)以及福特的中國(guó)合作伙伴長(zhǎng)安汽車，它們也向路線圖起草委員會(huì)派遣了專家,，外國(guó)汽車制造商則沒有這樣做,。

當(dāng)然，要決定全球自動(dòng)駕駛市場(chǎng)的步調(diào),，中國(guó)還有一段路要走,。

李克強(qiáng)指出，該委員會(huì)目前只是在研究自動(dòng)駕駛汽車的法律問(wèn)題,，比如事故的責(zé)任認(rèn)定,。

吉利集團(tuán)董事長(zhǎng)李書福曾說(shuō)，中國(guó)必須修改法律,，處于自動(dòng)駕駛狀態(tài)的車輛發(fā)生事故時(shí),，責(zé)任要由汽車廠商承擔(dān)，而非駕駛者,?！叭绻⒎üぷ髀浜螅詣?dòng)駕駛汽車就很難在中國(guó)銷售,?！?/p>

行業(yè)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)IHS Automotive分析師杰里米?卡爾森指出：“在政府支持下，中國(guó)汽車行業(yè)當(dāng)然有可能取得顯著進(jìn)展,。但在技術(shù)開發(fā)領(lǐng)域還有很多問(wèn)題,，要確保它是安全的，而這就意味著要有一定量的行駛檢驗(yàn),?！?/p>

本周開幕的北京車展（4月25日-5月4日）前，長(zhǎng)安汽車的兩輛自動(dòng)駕駛原型車行駛了2000公里，從長(zhǎng)安汽車的重慶總部開到了北京,。

這兩輛車的駕駛位置上都坐著測(cè)試工程師,，但他們都沒有干預(yù)車輛行駛。在自動(dòng)系統(tǒng)引導(dǎo)下,，兩車在公路上以每小時(shí)80公里的速度行進(jìn),，并根據(jù)交通狀況和限速標(biāo)志調(diào)整速度，同時(shí)保持在車道中間行駛,。這和已經(jīng)上市的特斯拉汽車的自動(dòng)駕駛性能基本相當(dāng)。

黎予生預(yù)計(jì),，2-3年內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上就會(huì)出現(xiàn)自動(dòng)駕駛車型,。同時(shí)，到2020年長(zhǎng)安汽車將為開發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)投入50億元資金,。該公司還在和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭百度商談開發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)事宜,。

北京師范大學(xué)教授Wang Yanmin（譯者注：這個(gè)查不到中文，保留了拼音）說(shuō)：“科技公司和汽車廠商的交叉領(lǐng)域值得關(guān)注,?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：詹妮

In the race to develop self-driving cars, the United States and Europe lead in technology, but China is coming up fast in the outside lane with a regulatory structure that could put it ahead in the popular adoption of autonomous cars on its highways and city streets.

A draft roadmap for having highway-ready, self-driving cars within 3-5 years and autonomous vehicles for urban driving by 2025 could be unveiled as early as this year, said Li Keqiang, an automotive engineering professor at Tsinghua University who chairs the committee drafting the plan. The panel is backed by the powerful Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The draft will set out technical standards, including a common language for cars to communicate with each other and infrastructure, and regulatory guidelines—a unified framework that contrasts with a patchwork of state laws and standards in the United States.

Without coordination, that patchwork could hold back the development of self driving cars in the U.S., David Strickland, a former safety chief for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, said at an event in Beijing this month.

China’s top-down approach could see it overtake the U.S. and Europe, where automakers have generally been left to agree among themselves on industry standards. A push for self-driving and electric cars also fits with Beijing’s shift to an economy driven by high-tech and consumer industries rather than heavy industry and low-end manufacturing.

“If we can convince the government that every company, every car on the road must use this (single standard)…then there is a chance China can beat the rest of the world” to the widespread use of self-driving cars, said Li Yusheng, head of Chongqing Changan Automobile’s autonomous drive program.

China is ripe for the advent of self-driving cars. It’s the world’s biggest autos market and is blighted by choking air pollution, traffic congestion and often erratic driving. More than 200,000 people die each year in road accidents, according to World Health Organisation estimates.

As relative newcomers to mass car ownership Chinese also tend not to share the West’s love affair with driving. In a 2015 World Economic Forum survey, 75% of Chinese said they would likely ride in a self-driving car, versus half of Americans. Within 20 years, China will be the largest market for autonomous features, accounting for at least a quarter of global demand, says Boston Consulting Group.

The China draft would be opened up for industry comment and input from a range of ministries, ultimately going to the State Council, or cabinet, for approval.

At a most basic level, the committee will define a “self-driving” car and set a minimum level of functionality, said Bai Jie, a professor at Tongji University who also sits on the expert committee.

In other respects, China plans to be more ambitious. It may adopt cellular data technology—already used in many cars to access the Internet—for cars to communicate, rather than the dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) standard used in the U.S. and Europe, said Li, the panel chairman.

“The U.S., Europe and Japan spent so much time developing DSRC, so they strongly recommend it for China,” Li said. “Here, we’re just beginning so why not choose advanced technology like LTE (Long Term Evolution wireless broadband technology) or 5G?”

China’s provisional timeline would put it at least in line with, if not ahead, of others developing self-driving cars.

By 2020, Toyota Motor aims to market a car that can drive by itself on highways, and Mercedes, after two decades of research, plans to launch a self-driving car, though drivers would be required to take control in certain situations.

Chinese automakers including SAIC Motor and Ford Motor’s local partner Changan have internal targets that match the likely draft roadmap, and are represented on the experts committee, Li said, while foreign car makers are not.

To be sure, China has some way to go to become a global pacesetter in autonomous driving.

Li, the committee chief, said the panel was only now looking into legal issues around self-driving cars, such as who is liable in any collision.

Li Shufu, chairman of automaker Geely, has said China must revise its laws so the manufacturer, not the driver, is held responsible for accidents when a car is in self-drive mode. “If (our) legislation lags behind, self-driving cars will be difficult to sell in China,” he said.

“It’s certainly possible for the Chinese auto industry to make significant headway with government backing, but there’s still a lot going into developing that technology, making sure it’s safe, and that means a certain number of miles driven,” said Jeremy Carlson, an analyst at consultancy IHS Automotive.

Ahead of next week’s Beijing autoshow, Changan took a couple of its prototype self-driving sedans for a 2,000 km (1,243 mile) trip from its Chongqing headquarters to the Chinese capital.

With a test engineer behind the wheel, but with his hands in his lap, the automated system guided the car along the highway at 80 km per hour, adjusting speed for traffic and speed-limit signs, while keeping centred in its lane—roughly on par with the self-drive capabilities of Tesla TSLA 2.20% models already on the market.

Changan’s Li said a self-driving model should be on the market in 2-3 years, with the automaker spending 5 billion yuan ($773 million) to further the technology by 2020. It is also in talks with Internet giant Baidu on developing automated driving technology.

“The intersection between technology companies and automakers is the space to watch,” said Wang Yanmin, a professor at Beijing Normal University.