上周，我在深圳參加了由德國IFA公司主辦的首屆中國電子消費品及家電品牌展,。IFA每年9月份都會舉辦盛大的IFA柏林國際電子消費品及家電展覽會,。深圳的人口超過1000萬，距離香港只有一個小時的車程,。這座經(jīng)常被稱為中國硅谷的城市是富士康和其他消費產(chǎn)品工廠的所在地,，其代工產(chǎn)品包括蘋果的iPhone和iPad。

我參加這個展覽會主要是想了解中國廠商如何將他們神奇的制造能力,，應(yīng)用于虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔,，他們能否降低產(chǎn)品價格，能否迅速推出對大眾消費者更有吸引力的新款虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔。我發(fā)現(xiàn),，中國廠商實際上已經(jīng)在不遺余力地開發(fā)更出色的移動頭盔了,。這些設(shè)備借助智能手機，為消費者提供基本的虛擬現(xiàn)實體驗,。

中國多數(shù)虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔都采用固體塑料材質(zhì),，并提供簡單的光學元件，價格約在23.95至129.95美元之間,，質(zhì)量不同價格也不同,。你現(xiàn)在就可以在亞馬遜上購買深圳制造商生產(chǎn)的多款虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔。

作為一種虛擬現(xiàn)實培訓工具,，這些頭盔的確可以讓用戶體驗更好的谷歌Cardboard原型產(chǎn)品,，但我最感興趣的是，中國制造商能否降低更昂貴的虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔的價格,，如Facebook的Oculus和HTC的Vive,。中國制造商不光彩的一面是，他們會想方設(shè)法地仿制他們認為會熱賣的產(chǎn)品,，并用更低的價格創(chuàng)造出類似的山寨貨,。

目前，Oculus的價格為599美元,，而且需要一臺昂貴的高端PC才能啟動,。售價899美元的Vive也需要一臺配備昂貴顯卡的PC，用于渲染虛擬現(xiàn)實內(nèi)容,。

正如我所期待的那樣，中國制造商正在努力開發(fā)價格更低的類似產(chǎn)品,。根據(jù)我的調(diào)查,，至少有3款虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔與Oculus和HTC的產(chǎn)品極其類似，但上市后的價格至少將便宜200至300美元,。不過,，這些產(chǎn)品目前也需要搭配一臺昂貴的PC。有人告訴我,，這些價格更低的頭盔將在今年的節(jié)日季上市,。不過，我并不確定,，這些產(chǎn)品屆時能否運行現(xiàn)有的兼容Oculus或HTC的內(nèi)容,。

虛擬現(xiàn)實的過去、現(xiàn)在和未來

不過,，中國廠商并不滿足于創(chuàng)造高端虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔的低價版本,。他們希望在這方面實現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新，創(chuàng)造出外形與普通眼鏡更加類似的虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔。我在展會上看到了一款這樣的產(chǎn)品,，制造商是一家名叫多哚的公司,。

多哚公司CEO對媒體表示，他們生產(chǎn)的Dlodlo Glass V1 VR眼鏡目前只是一款原型,。我在多哚的展臺看到了這款據(jù)稱將在節(jié)日季上市的眼鏡,，它確實只是一個非常早期的原型——幾乎就是外殼設(shè)計，沒有太多的必要電子元件,。不過該公司信誓旦旦地表示,，產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計已經(jīng)取得了長足進展，并且向我保證,，這款產(chǎn)品很快就會上市,。我無法從多哚高管了解到這款眼鏡的具體規(guī)格。不過,，我知道虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔需要哪些技術(shù),，所以我嚴重懷疑多哚能否在今年甚至明年推出這款產(chǎn)品。

事實上,，F(xiàn)acebook 公司CEO馬克?扎克伯格最近曾告訴開發(fā)者,，外形與普通眼鏡更類似的虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔，至少要在10年之后才能實現(xiàn),。扎克伯格想象的產(chǎn)品要變成現(xiàn)實,，需要模壓電池與芯片設(shè)計等技術(shù)取得重大突破才行。

但中國廠商正在積極開發(fā)與傳統(tǒng)眼鏡外觀更類似的虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔,，這是一個不容否認的事實,，我們必須嚴肅對待。這種設(shè)計是虛擬現(xiàn)實眼鏡的“圣杯”,。多哚和其他中國廠商的革新性工作,，可以推動所有虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔廠商向這個方向努力。這種趨勢最終將會創(chuàng)造出不令人討厭,、更容易被社會接受的虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔,。

通過與參會的許多中國制造商的討論，我發(fā)現(xiàn)中國廠商希望能夠帶來必要的技術(shù)突破,，盡快創(chuàng)造出外觀更類似于眼鏡,，并且價格相對低廉的虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔。這個過程或許需要幾年時間,，但中國廠商已經(jīng)成為影響未來虛擬現(xiàn)實技術(shù)的重要力量,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者蒂姆?巴加林是業(yè)內(nèi)領(lǐng)先的咨詢師、分析師和未來主義者,，他關(guān)注的領(lǐng)域包括個人電腦和消費者技術(shù),。巴加林現(xiàn)任Creative Strategies公司總裁,。早在1981年，他就加入該公司,，曾經(jīng)為大多數(shù)業(yè)內(nèi)領(lǐng)先的硬件和軟件供應(yīng)商提供分析服務(wù),。

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

審校：任文科

I was in Shenzhen, China last week at the first CE China trade show, which was produced by IFA, the German company that also produces the giant IFA CE trade show in Berlin each September. Shenzhen, which has a population of over 10 million people, is about an hour’s drive from Hong Kong. The city is best known as the place where Foxconn and other factories build consumer products, including the Apple iPhone and iPad, and is often called the “Silicon Valley” of China.

I wanted to attend the IFA China CE Show to specifically to see how the Chinese were going to apply their manufacturing magic to virtual reality (VR) headsets, and to see if they could bring prices down and get new VR headsets out that had broader appeal to mass consumer audiences any time soon. What I found is that the Chinese have really gone to town on making better mobile headsets, which use a smartphone to power a rudimentary VR experience.

Most of the Chinese headsets are made of solid plastic and have simple optics, costing anywhere from $23.95 to $129.95 depending on the quality. You can find many of them on Amazon today and have them shipped to you directly from Shenzhen.

While that is nice and it does allow people to use a better Google GOOGL -2.27% Cardboard concept as training wheels for VR, I was most interested to see if the Chinese manufacturers could help get the prices down on the more expensive headsets like the ones from Facebook’s Oculus and HTC’s Vive. The Chinese manufacturers are infamous for aping what they think will be big-selling products and create similar models at cheaper prices when possible.

The Oculus today costs $599 and requires an expensive high-end PC to boot. The HTC HTC 0.00% Vive is $899 and also needs a PC with an expensive graphics card to handle the rendering of the VR content.

As I expected, the Chinese manufacturers are hard at work creating similar headsets at cheaper prices. Behind the scenes I was made aware of at least three VR headsets very much like the ones from Oculus and HTC that could be brought to market at least $200 to $300 cheaper. However, at the moment they too need an expensive PC. I am told that these lower-cost headsets could be out for this holiday season. However, it is unclear if they will be able to run the existing Oculus- or HTC-compatible content when they ship.

The Past, the Present, and the Future of Virtual Reality

But the Chinese are not content with just creating cheaper versions of today’s high-end VR headsets. They want to innovate in this space and create VR goggles that look more like a set of actual glasses. One such product I saw at the IFA China CE show came from a company called Dlodlo, pronounced “dodo.”

The CEO of Dlodlo told a packed press conference that his company’s Dlodlo Glass V1 VR glasses are still a prototype, but he claimed it would launch by the holiday season. I got to see these glasses at Dlodlo’s booth at the IFA CE China show, and indeed could see that these were actually very early prototypes — mostly a shell design without much of the requisite electronics. But the company insisted that it is far along with its design and assured me that they would be ready for the market soon. I could not get any specific specs from Dlodlo executives about the glasses. Given what I know about how much technology goes into VR headsets, I am highly skeptical that Dlodlo will get this to market this year or even next year.

Indeed, Facebook FB 7.93% CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently told developers that a VR headset that looks more like regular glasses is at least 10 years away. There needs to be many breakthroughs in moldable batteries and chip design before we see a product like Zuckerberg envisions.

Yet, the fact that the Chinese are already being very aggressive in creating VR headsets that look more like traditional glasses has to be looked at seriously. This design is the Holy Grail of VR glasses. Revolutionary work by Dlodlo and other Chinese manufacturers could push all headset vendors in this direction. This could lead to less obnoxious and more socially acceptable VR headsets.

In discussions with many Chinese manufacturers at the IFA China CE Show, it became clear that the Chinese want to deliver the technological breakthroughs needed to create VR headsets that are more like glasses and relatively inexpensive as soon as possible. Although this may take a few more years to achieve, the Chinese are in a place to be a major influence on VR technology of the future.

Tim Bajarin is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts and futurists, covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin is the President of Creative Strategies, Inc and has been with the company since 1981 where he has served as a consultant providing analysis to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry.