庫(kù)克老調(diào)重彈
蘋(píng)果的股價(jià)最近開(kāi)始走低了,。據(jù)全美廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)報(bào)道,,蘋(píng)果股價(jià)本周一再次小幅下跌,標(biāo)志著該公司的股價(jià)已經(jīng)連續(xù)8天走低,,這也是1998年以來(lái),,蘋(píng)果股票連日下跌時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的一次。 這里我們不妨再回顧一下歷史:1998年的那一次,,正好是喬幫主重新執(zhí)掌公司的一年后,,和iPod、iPhone和iPad大賣之前的那段時(shí)間,。而此次更糟糕的是,,蘋(píng)果股價(jià)于本周一收于93.64美元,基本上已經(jīng)回到了四年前的水平,。 或許正是股價(jià)下跌的壓力,,才刺激得CEO蒂姆?庫(kù)克今天走進(jìn)了CNBC的直播間,花些時(shí)間與主持人吉姆?克萊默聊聊蘋(píng)果的未來(lái),。除了股價(jià)壓力之外,,庫(kù)克之所以要親自上鏡造勢(shì),也可能是由于華爾街的整體氛圍于己不利,因?yàn)槿A爾街分析師們對(duì)蘋(píng)果的態(tài)度正傾向于愈加負(fù)面,。 在4月26日的收益電話會(huì)議上,,蘋(píng)果承認(rèn)iPhone手機(jī)的年銷量出現(xiàn)了首次下降,公司營(yíng)收入也出現(xiàn)了2003年以來(lái)的首次下跌,。而在今天的采訪中,,庫(kù)克的說(shuō)詞與上次收益電話會(huì)議相比毫無(wú)新意,依舊是一臉的樂(lè)觀和那幾個(gè)老調(diào)重彈的借口——強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元,,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的疲軟,,以及現(xiàn)有iPhone用戶選擇升級(jí)新款手機(jī)的比率下降等等。 “這是幾個(gè)因素共同作用的結(jié)果,?!睅?kù)克對(duì)克萊默表示。 同時(shí)庫(kù)克也再次重復(fù)了他的一貫論調(diào),,他表示蘋(píng)果用戶從來(lái)沒(méi)有像今天這樣對(duì)公司的產(chǎn)品如此滿意,,而且蘋(píng)果還有一些尚未發(fā)布的殺手锏級(jí)秘密武器讓他感到“超級(jí)興奮”,其中也包括新iPhone,。他表示:“我們將會(huì)為你帶來(lái)一些你再也離不開(kāi)的東西,,只不過(guò)今天你還不知道自己需要它們?!笨纯巳R默的神色,,對(duì)這話似乎頗有幾分懷疑。 庫(kù)克還指出,,印度是一個(gè)重大的市場(chǎng),,而且其潛力尚未充分發(fā)掘。他還指出,,印度將在2022年成為全球人口最多的國(guó)家,。 不過(guò)在庫(kù)克的侃侃而談中,絕對(duì)沒(méi)有任何新東西或是什么令人興奮的東西,。本周一,,華盛頓最有名望的華爾街蘋(píng)果分析師托尼?薩科納西給庫(kù)克執(zhí)政以來(lái)的這幾年打了個(gè)分。雖然這張成績(jī)單表面上有批評(píng)也有表?yè)P(yáng),,但批評(píng)的部分顯然要比表?yè)P(yáng)更有說(shuō)服力,。 這位分析師寫(xiě)道:“投資者們認(rèn)為,蘋(píng)果已經(jīng)失去了自己的市場(chǎng)‘魔咒’,。管理層傳達(dá)出的前后矛盾的信息令人越來(lái)越擔(dān)憂,,另外它的產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新速度太慢,而且蘋(píng)果在中國(guó)的大熱時(shí)代也已經(jīng)結(jié)束,。此外最重要的是,,iPhone的利潤(rùn)似乎已經(jīng)到頂了,。” 薩科納西認(rèn)為,,庫(kù)克已經(jīng)失去了許多投資者的信任,。一年前,庫(kù)克曾經(jīng)表示,,iPhone用戶的升級(jí)率并沒(méi)有任何不尋常的升高跡象,。而在蘋(píng)果最近一次與分析師的收益電話會(huì)議上,他不僅以去年的iPhone升級(jí)率出現(xiàn)了不尋常的升高作為今年銷量下降的借口,,甚至干脆抵賴了自己去年說(shuō)過(guò)的話(“你說(shuō)我說(shuō)過(guò)關(guān)于升級(jí)周期之類的這些話,,但我不記得自己曾說(shuō)過(guò)這些話?!保?/p> 一度被奉為運(yùn)營(yíng)大師的庫(kù)克,,似乎也在為供需平衡的問(wèn)題而頭痛。上個(gè)季度,,蘋(píng)果大大提高了iPhone的庫(kù)存,,而這個(gè)季度又在計(jì)劃大砍庫(kù)存。另外,,蘋(píng)果似乎還低估了消費(fèi)者對(duì)它的最低配——iPhone SE手機(jī)的需求,因?yàn)闈撛谫I主不得不等上幾個(gè)星期才能等到新訂單到貨,。 當(dāng)被問(wèn)道他是否認(rèn)為華爾街錯(cuò)估了對(duì)蘋(píng)果未來(lái)的預(yù)期時(shí),,庫(kù)克耍了一回太極:“華爾街是由許許多多的人組成的,所以那里有很多不同的觀點(diǎn),,我不確定那里會(huì)有一種觀點(diǎn)是普遍的,。” 到采訪結(jié)束時(shí),,蘋(píng)果股價(jià)在當(dāng)日午后交易中幾乎原地踏步,。或許蘋(píng)果的投資者真正需要的,,是讓蘋(píng)果把更多精力放在產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新和供應(yīng)鏈規(guī)劃上,,少花些心思在投資者關(guān)系、股票回股和操縱輿論這些事上,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) 譯者:樸成奎 |
Apple’s stock price is in the dumps. A small drop on Monday marked the eighth consecutive daily loss for the company, the longest such losing streak since 1998, according to CNBC. In case you need a historical refresher: That was a year after Steve Jobs returned to the company, but before the great run of the iPod, iPhone, and iPad. To make matters worse, Apple’s shares, which closed at $93.64 on Monday, are around where they traded four years ago. Maybe the depressed stock price is what prompted CEO Tim Cook to visit CNBC’s studios today and spend some time chatting with host Jim Cramer about Apple’s future. It also may have been the vibe coming from Wall Street, where analysts are increasingly negative about Apple AAPL -0.11% . But Cook spent the entire interview repeating the same optimism mixed with excuses that he gave on the company’s April 26 earnings call, when Apple reported its first ever year-over-year decline in iPhone sales and its first revenue decline since 2003. It’s that darn stronger dollar, the weak economy in China, and a temporary slowdown in the rate of iPhone owners upgrading to new models. “A confluence of items in there,” Cook told Cramer. He repeated his standard argument that Apple customers have never been more satisfied with the company’s products and that he was super excited about some of the secret, unannounced gadgets to come including new iPhones. “We’re going to give you things that you can’t live without that you just don’t know you need today,” Cook told a skeptical Cramer. Cook also pointed to India as a major untapped market, which he noted would become the most populous nation in the world in 2022. But there was absolutely nothing new or surprising in Cook’s chatter. Earlier on Monday, Toni Sacconaghi, one of the most respected Wall Street Apple analysts, put out a report card on Cook’s recent tenure, and while the note ostensibly included both highs and lows, the critique was considerably more convincing than his praise. “Investors believe Apple has lost its marketplace ‘mojo’, management’s inconsistent messages are increasingly worrisome, product innovation is too slow, Apple’s China run is over, and – most importantly – that iPhone profits have likely peaked,” the analyst wrote. Cook has lost credibility with investors, according to Sacconaghi. A year ago, Cook said there was no unusual increase in iPhone upgrade rates. On Apple’s most recent call with analysts, not only did he cite an unusually high upgrade rate from last year as an excuse for this year’s drop in sales, but he even denied saying what he had said last year (“I don’t recall saying the things that you said I said about the upgrade cycles.”) Cook, once considered an operations guru, also appears to be struggling to match supply and demand. Apple excessively increased iPhone inventory last quarter and plans a huge cut this quarter. It also appears to have underestimated demand for its new lowest price model, the SE, Sacconaghi noted, as potential buyers have been forced to wait for weeks for new orders to ship. Asked by Cramer if he thought Wall Street was wrong about Apple’s future, Cook punted. “Wall Street is a collection of people, right, so there are many different viewpoints in there,” he said. “I’m not sure there is a common one.” By the end of the interview, Apple’s share price had barely moved in after hours trading. Maybe what Apple investors really need is more focus at Apple on product innovation and supply chain planning and perhaps less on investor relations, stock buybacks, and spin. |
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