據(jù)芝加哥商業(yè)交易所集團（CME Group）發(fā)布的消息稱,，上周四，國際原油價格近6個月以來首次超過了50美元/桶,。

近幾個月來的油價反彈聽起來是個好消息。因為自從去年夏天開始,，人們就經(jīng)常把股市下跌的黑鍋扣在油價疲軟上,。

然而這一論斷總是有些違背常識的。低廉的油價應(yīng)該會對全球經(jīng)濟起到刺激作用,，因為較低的能源價格使得企業(yè)和消費者能夠有更多的資金用于消費其他商品,。但油價的下跌也意味著需求下滑,。實際上，股市在過去18個月中一直保持疲軟這一事實,，表明了很多投資人都將原油價格的走低解讀為發(fā)達國家需求疲軟和中國經(jīng)濟陷于停滯的結(jié)果,。

既然現(xiàn)在油價又開始上漲了，我們是否可以認為,，這對市場和美國經(jīng)濟來說是個好消息？

至于油價上漲對股市有無提振作用,，最近的數(shù)據(jù)表明：“或許沒有什么作用,。”請看下方由比安科研究公司（Bianco Research）的策略師吉姆?比安科提供的這幅圖表,，它主要體現(xiàn)了油價與標普500指數(shù)的相關(guān)性,。

according to the CME Group.

The rally in oil prices over the past several months sounds like great news. Ever since last summer, stock-market declines have been routinely blamed on weak oil prices.

The argument was always a bit counterintuitive. Cheap oil should be a stimulus for the global economy, as lower energy prices give businesses and consumers more money to spend on other things. But falling oil prices can also signal collapsing demand. Indeed, the fact that stock prices have stayed flat for the past 18 months suggests investors were interpreting the drop in crude as a sign of weak demand in the wealthy world and of a flagging economy in China.

So now that oil prices are on the way up, should we expect that to be good news for the market and the American economy?

When it comes to stocks, the latest data says, “Maybe not.” Take a look at this chart from strategist Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, which studies the correlation between stocks and the S&P 500:

從圖中可以看出,，在2016年年初的這段時間里，油價與股市是有相當大的相關(guān)性的,，此后則并非如此,。那么究竟出了什么問題呢？

比安科表示,，這完全是由于信貸危機導(dǎo)致的,。他在一封致客戶的信里寫道：“隨著油價跌至35美元以下,，很多人開始擔心能源板塊會出現(xiàn)信貸違約，從而影響銀行業(yè)以及總體市場,。因此在這段時間,，股市與油價之間的相關(guān)性是很高的?！?

因此，隨著油價走高并且跨過35美元大關(guān),，我們可以預(yù)計，油價對股價的影響將會更小,。

但油價的此輪上漲對總體經(jīng)濟有何影響,？

在美國部分地區(qū),，影響還是相當大的,。比如美聯(lián)儲近日的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，2016年第一季度,，汽車貸款的不良信貸率出現(xiàn)了近三年來的首次上升,。如果仔細分析一下這一數(shù)據(jù),，你會發(fā)現(xiàn),，這種上升幾乎全部集中在一些產(chǎn)油地區(qū),，而這些產(chǎn)油區(qū)有6%的就業(yè)率依賴于能源開采,。油價的上漲顯然會令這些地區(qū)松一口氣,，因為高油價會刺激能源企業(yè)開采更多的能源。

然而除此之外,，鮮有證據(jù)表明在過去一年半里,，能源價格的搖擺對美國經(jīng)濟整體有多大的影響。在油價猛跌的日子里,，居民的消費支出水平并未出現(xiàn)顯著變化,。LPL金融公司的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家約翰?康納利指出：“汽油價格的大幅下降，并未像一些人預(yù)計的那樣,，對總體經(jīng)濟或消費部門產(chǎn)生較大的提振作用,，總體經(jīng)濟目前也仍然在努力恢復(fù)階段,。另外它也沒有改變大體上不溫不火的消費支出節(jié)奏。實際上,，自從27個季度前的‘大蕭條’結(jié)束時（即2009年第2季度）起至今,，消費支出只累計增長了16%，遠遠低于前三次經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇期的頭27個季度的30%的水平——這三次經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇也和今天的情況最有可比性,?！?

比石油價格更重要的，是就業(yè)和工資水平的增長,。幸運的是,，在原油市場近期持續(xù)波動期間，美國的就業(yè)增長始終保持著較為強勁的水平,。那么工資水平是否顯著上漲了,？很不幸，美國人民還在翹首企盼中,。但隨著油價的走高,，漲薪潮應(yīng)該也不會太遠了。 （財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

As you can see, oil and stocks were pretty heavily correlated during the early part of 2016, but otherwise are not. So what’s going on?

Bianco says that it’s all about credit risk. “Oil prices below $35 lead to concerns of a credit event in the energy patch impairing banks and the overall market,” Bianco writes in a note to clients. “In these times the correlation between stocks and oil is high.”

Therefore, as oil prices climb farther away from that critical $35 threshold, we should expect the price of oil to matter less to stock prices.

But what about the overall economy?

In certain regions of the country, it may matter a lot. Recent data from the Federal Reserve, for instance, showed that delinquencies on auto loans had risen in first quarter of 2016 for the first time in three years. If you parse the data, however, you’ll find that the increase was almost all concentrated in oil-producing counties, where more than 6% of employment was dependent on energy extraction. Rising prices will surely provide relief in these areas, as higher prices encourage energy explorers to produce more.

But otherwise, there’s been little evidence during over the past near year and a half that the U.S. economy is affected much by swings in energy prices. As oil dropped precipitously, consumer spending levels didn’t change significantly.” The big drop in gasoline prices did not, as some expected, provide a big lift to the overall economy or the consumer sector, which continues to struggle in this recovery, nor did it change the overall tepid pace of consumer spending,” writes John Canally, economist with LPL Financial. “In fact, since the end of the Great Recession 27 quarters ago (the second quarter of 2009), consumer spending has only increased by a cumulative 16%, well under the 30% gain in the first 27 quarters of the last three economic recoveries, which are the most comparable to today’s recovery.”

Much more important than oil, it seems, is job and wage growth. Luckily, job growth has remained strong throughout the recent drama in oil markets. Significant wage gains? Americans are still waiting for those. But rising oil prices won’t delay the raises any longer.