英國(guó)脫歐可以算作偶然事件,。英國(guó)脫歐加上特朗普勝選看上去則像是某種初具雛形的趨勢(shì)。所有國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人目前面臨的一大問(wèn)題就是,，這種趨勢(shì)會(huì)不會(huì)愈演愈烈,，或者說(shuō)各國(guó)會(huì)不會(huì)越來(lái)越快地脫離此前70年所建立的開放式全球秩序。今后幾個(gè)月,，各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者將會(huì)關(guān)注幾件事,，以便找到答案。

歷史教育我們,，開放必須要爭(zhēng)取,。商品、資本和人員的自由流動(dòng)總會(huì)遇到強(qiáng)大阻力,。今天的全球化是個(gè)讓人心動(dòng)的非凡成就,，但要記住，以前也曾出現(xiàn)過(guò)這樣的局面,。一戰(zhàn)前的幾十年時(shí)間里,，人們游走于歐洲以及世界上大多數(shù)地區(qū)時(shí)并不需要護(hù)照。勞動(dòng)移民穿越國(guó)境幾乎不受限制,。貿(mào)易越發(fā)自由,，并在許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體中占據(jù)越來(lái)越大的比例。

一戰(zhàn)迅速逆轉(zhuǎn)了這種趨勢(shì),，而且直到二戰(zhàn)后,，各國(guó)才有機(jī)會(huì)啟動(dòng)重返全球化秩序的偉大進(jìn)程。這個(gè)過(guò)程讓數(shù)十億人擺脫了貧困,，而且耗費(fèi)了幾十年時(shí)間,，因?yàn)槊恳徊蕉际且粓?chǎng)戰(zhàn)斗。

我們又要推翻這一切了嗎,？有可能,。英國(guó)脫歐顯然和歐洲的開放趨勢(shì)背道而馳。唐納德·特朗普承諾對(duì)來(lái)自中國(guó)和墨西哥的進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品施以重稅,。如果他履行這些承諾,，就可能引發(fā)報(bào)復(fù)行為，進(jìn)而造成全球貿(mào)易急劇萎縮,。同時(shí),，如果美國(guó)像他所說(shuō)的那樣退出北美自貿(mào)區(qū)和世貿(mào)組織，幾十年來(lái)推廣自由貿(mào)易的努力就會(huì)付之東流,。

特朗普的這些舉動(dòng)有可能讓全球在經(jīng)過(guò)了一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期的開放周期后大步邁向封閉的新周期,。此外,，還有一些情況也值得關(guān)注。

12月4日意大利公投的結(jié)果可能表明,，公開反對(duì)全球化的五星運(yùn)動(dòng)得到了支持,。同一天，奧地利將進(jìn)行第二輪總統(tǒng)選舉,。自由黨候選人諾伯特·霍費(fèi)爾很可能獲得選民強(qiáng)烈支持并贏得大選,；他的政黨主張反建制和反移民。現(xiàn)在看來(lái),，明年4-5月的法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選可能成為瑪瑪·勒龐最強(qiáng)勢(shì)的一場(chǎng)秀,，而她領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的正是貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義以及反移民政黨國(guó)民陣線。

最后,，德國(guó)將在明年下半年舉行聯(lián)邦選舉,。在最近的地區(qū)性選舉中，最令人吃驚的選情無(wú)外乎總理安吉拉·默克爾所在政黨的支持率每況愈下,，以及反移民,、反歐元也反對(duì)歐洲進(jìn)一步一體化的德國(guó)新選擇黨強(qiáng)勢(shì)崛起。

在意奧法德以及其他明年舉行大選的國(guó)家,，特別是匈牙利與荷蘭,，民粹主義者都在歡慶特朗普的勝利，原因是他們認(rèn)為特朗普當(dāng)選是英國(guó)脫歐后邁出的第二步,，它將加快逆轉(zhuǎn)當(dāng)今的開放式世界秩序,。

這話也許不假。封閉對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有破壞作用,，它招致了自?；驁?bào)復(fù)，后者反過(guò)來(lái)又加劇了封閉,。因此，封閉會(huì)自我強(qiáng)化,；開放對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有建設(shè)作用,，但開放不會(huì)自我強(qiáng)化，需要世人努力爭(zhēng)取,。我們很快就會(huì)知道,，這個(gè)世界會(huì)走向何方。結(jié)果不管怎樣,，都會(huì)產(chǎn)生重要的影響,。

Brexit could be regarded as a fluke. Brexit plus Trump starts to look like a trend. A large question for all leaders now is whether the trend becomes self-reinforcing, an accelerating spiral of nations rejecting the open global order built over the past 70 years. Leaders will want to monitor several indicators that will answer that question in coming months.

A lesson of history is that openness has to be fought for. Free movement of goods, capital, and people always confronts powerful opponents. Today’s globalism strikes us as a remarkable achievement, but remember that we’ve been here before. In the decades before World War I, people traveled across Europe and over most of the world without passports. Migrant workers crossed borders with few restrictions. And trade was increasingly free, accounting for a rising proportion of GDP in many economies.

The war quickly reversed all that progress, and not until after World War II could nations begin the great project of returning to a more global order, which has since lifted billions of people out of poverty. It has taken decades because every step has been a fight.

Are we about to reverse all that progress again? Could be. Brexit is an obvious reversal of the trend toward a more open Europe. Donald Trump’s promises to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, if he keeps them, would spark retaliation and a plunge in global trade. Exiting Nafta and the World Trade Organization, as he has also threatened to do, would cancel decades of work to widen free trade.

Such actions by Trump would be especially dramatic steps toward a new cycle of global closing after a long cycle of opening, but other indicators also bear watching.

Results of a national referendum in Italy on Dec. 4 could signal support for the explicitly anti-globalist 5 Star Movement. On that same day, Austria will hold the second round of its presidential election, in which Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer will probably do well and may win; his party is anti-establishment and anti-immigrant. And France’s presidential election in April and May now seems likely to be the strongest showing yet for Marine Le Pen, leader of the protectionist, anti-immigrant National Front.

Finally, Germany will hold a federal election sometime in next year’s second half; the most striking trend in recent local and regional elections has been the weakening popularity of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party and the strong rise of Alternative for Germany, which is anti-immigrant, anti-euro, and opposed to further European integration.

Populists in those countries and others, notably Hungary and the Netherlands, which also hold elections next year, cheered Trump’s win. They’re celebrating it as another step, after Brexit, toward an accelerating reversal of today’s open world order.

Which it may be. Closing, which is economically destructive, begets more closing as self-defense or retaliation; it’s self-reinforcing. Opening, which is economically constructive, isn’t; it has to be fought for. We’ll know soon enough which way the world is heading. For better or worse, the consequences will be momentous.