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無人駕駛大戰(zhàn),,究竟誰占鰲頭,?

無人駕駛大戰(zhàn),究竟誰占鰲頭,?

Kisrten Korsec 2017-02-14
由于報(bào)告形式各異,,目前很難準(zhǔn)確判斷各家企業(yè)在開發(fā)無人駕駛技術(shù)方面的具體情況。

論起無人駕駛車領(lǐng)域的競爭,,可以說既是暗戰(zhàn),也是公開的交鋒,。

汽車制造商,,科技公司,還有創(chuàng)業(yè)公司經(jīng)常通報(bào)目前的狀況,。但沒有數(shù)據(jù)支持很難驗(yàn)證各公司的說法,,也沒法判斷到底哪家公司的無人駕駛技術(shù)最先進(jìn)。

加州汽車管理局綜合了11家汽車和科技公司的資料后公布了一系列報(bào)告,,向公眾介紹了自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,。

如果想從加州汽車管理局申請(qǐng)測試許可,汽車公司得提交年度報(bào)告詳細(xì)描述所謂的“脫離自動(dòng)模式”情況,,這個(gè)術(shù)語意思是測試中出現(xiàn)多少次因?yàn)檐浖栴}或出于安全原因,,駕駛員不得已恢復(fù)人工駕駛。例如,,如果遇到其他車輛逆向行駛,,或因行人、騎自行車的人違反交通規(guī)則而恢復(fù)人工駕駛,。

加州汽車管理局周三發(fā)布的年報(bào)中提供了一些信息,,從中能看出汽車制造商和相關(guān)企業(yè)在無人駕駛車大戰(zhàn)中的狀況,。其中脫離自動(dòng)模式次數(shù)并非唯一的指標(biāo),。各家企業(yè)的無人駕駛車測試地點(diǎn)包括公開道路,、研究中心和位于其他州的本公司場地。但對(duì)于確實(shí)提交報(bào)告的企業(yè),,確實(shí)能從中看出技術(shù)開發(fā)狀況,,從而了解發(fā)展動(dòng)向。

Waymo(谷歌)是領(lǐng)頭羊

隨便掃一眼加州汽車管理局的報(bào)告就能看出,,谷歌旗下的自動(dòng)駕駛項(xiàng)目Waymo在加州公開道路上測試的總里程數(shù)遙遙領(lǐng)先,。如今Waymo還單獨(dú)成立了公司。

數(shù)字非常驚人,,而且能看出該公司已經(jīng)升級(jí)了自動(dòng)駕駛軟件,。

2016年Waymo公司在公開道路的測試?yán)锍虜?shù)近63.6萬英里(約合102.4萬公里),較之前一年增長了49%,。而且,,“脫離自動(dòng)模式”從2015年的341次降到去年的124次,降幅達(dá)64%,。

報(bào)告顯示,,總體來看,一年內(nèi)每一千英里自動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)人工操作的比例從0.80降至0.20,。值得一提的是,,Waymo選擇的測試路段多為比較復(fù)雜的城市和郊區(qū)路面,而不是沒有兒童和自行車,,交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也更簡單的高速路面,。

“每次出現(xiàn)脫離自動(dòng)駕駛事件后,我們都會(huì)借機(jī)改進(jìn)完善汽車(我們?cè)O(shè)定的脫離自動(dòng)駕駛標(biāo)準(zhǔn)非常保守),,正因如此我們的技術(shù)進(jìn)步很快,,”Waymo公司自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)負(fù)責(zé)人德米特里·多爾戈夫在媒體上一篇文章中寫道?!皩?duì)各種突發(fā)情況,,我們可以即時(shí)創(chuàng)建上百種,有時(shí)甚至上千種相關(guān)場景,,根據(jù)該區(qū)域其他道路參與者的不同位置和速度提供對(duì)應(yīng)方案,。”

通用汽車在加速趕超

從這份報(bào)告中也能看出大公司(以及相關(guān)資本和資源)如何推動(dòng)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司成長,。創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Cruise Automation是舊金山一家無人駕駛車技術(shù)開發(fā)商,。2016年通用汽車出資超過10億美元將其收購,此前該公司只能用一些日產(chǎn)Leaf電動(dòng)車測試,。

數(shù)字本身就能講故事,。2016年1月,Cruise只有三輛日產(chǎn)Leaf電動(dòng)車做測試,。4月測試車增加到五輛,。一個(gè)月后,,測試車代號(hào)為Scarlet和Quicksilver等的日產(chǎn)Leaf電動(dòng)車逐漸減少,測試車變成了2017款雪佛蘭Bolt EV電動(dòng)車,。

加州汽車管理局報(bào)告顯示,,8月時(shí),日產(chǎn)Leaf已經(jīng)完全不見,,Cruise已經(jīng)有至少九輛雪佛蘭Bolt電動(dòng)車,,測試很頻繁,代號(hào)類似叉角羚,、山貓,、鴨嘴獸和獵豹等。到了11月,,該公司旗下已有20輛注冊(cè)測試車,。

特斯拉已將無人駕駛當(dāng)成公司戰(zhàn)略

2015年10月,特斯拉推出了半自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)Autopilot,,由此成為最先進(jìn)的駕駛輔助軟件開發(fā)商,。Autopilot由感應(yīng)器和軟件組成,能協(xié)助完成路邊停車,、方向控制以及在高速路上變道,。這款半自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)一直在改進(jìn),領(lǐng)先其他制造商,。

2016年之前,,特斯拉一直沒在加州公開道路測試過自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)。2016年出現(xiàn)變化,。汽車制造商和能源公司特斯拉提交加州汽車管理局的報(bào)告顯示,,2016年已開始在加州公開道路上測試四輛自動(dòng)駕駛車。

有些汽車制造商基本沒怎么在加州測試,,或者測試很少

有21家公司,,從大眾到特斯拉到Zoox和Drive.ai等等初創(chuàng)公司申請(qǐng)過許可,在公開道路上測試無人駕駛技術(shù),。但只有11家公司提交了報(bào)告,,其中還有一些報(bào)告內(nèi)容只是聲明沒在公開道路上測試。

旗下包括豪車品牌奧迪的大眾集團(tuán)美國公司就沒在加州公開道路測試,。日本的本田也一樣,。本田表示目前在加州康特拉科斯達(dá)一處非公開的封閉道路上測試。寶馬目前在美國僅有一臺(tái)測試車,。

其他在加州公開道路測試的企業(yè)包括:

? 博世:三臺(tái)測試車

? 德爾福:兩臺(tái)測試車

? 福特:兩臺(tái)測試車

? 奔馳:一臺(tái)測試車

? 日產(chǎn):五臺(tái)測試車

這些數(shù)字并不能代表某家企業(yè)實(shí)際的測試情況,。很多制造商、科技公司和供應(yīng)商都在其他州以及封閉道路上測試,。舉例來說,,福特發(fā)言人透露,,2016年其測試車隊(duì)從10輛增加到30輛,而且到12月車隊(duì)組建尚未完成,。測試車隊(duì)有多項(xiàng)工程目標(biāo),不只包括道路測試,,而且測試地點(diǎn)包括亞利桑那州,、加州和密歇根州。

不過要指出的是,,過去加州一直是無人駕駛車開發(fā)中心,。一些制造商在加州測試數(shù)量低可能因?yàn)檎饾u撤出加州,在其他更容易獲得許可或是離制造商總部更近的州測試,。

最大的問題是,,其他沒提交報(bào)告的公司都在忙什么?

報(bào)告內(nèi)容非常不統(tǒng)一

報(bào)告并無統(tǒng)一標(biāo)準(zhǔn),,有些脫離自動(dòng)駕駛的報(bào)告只有短短兩頁,,有些像Waymo提交的則超過34頁。

有些公司會(huì)追根溯源,,提供脫離自動(dòng)駕駛的具體地點(diǎn)和細(xì)節(jié),。有些則草草說明總里程,出現(xiàn)幾次脫離自動(dòng)駕駛,,原因說明也只有一兩段,。

結(jié)果呢?由于報(bào)告形式各異,,很難準(zhǔn)確判斷各家企業(yè)在開發(fā)無人駕駛技術(shù)方面的具體情況,。

作者:Kisrten Korsec

譯者:夏林

The race to develop autonomous vehicles can be described as a dual exercise in secrecy and bombastic theater.

Automakers, tech companies, and startups are often quick to share where they stand in that race. But without the data it's impossible to vet those claims or accurately evaluate which company has the most robust autonomous vehicle technology.

The California Department of Motor Vehicles released a series of reports Wednesday from 11 automakers and tech companies that gave the public a peek at their development of self-driving car technology.

Any company issued a testing permit from the California DMV must submit an annual report detailing its so-called "disengagements," a jargon term that means the number of times drivers have had to take control of a car because the software failed or for safety reasons. For example, a driver might take control if it encounters another car traveling the wrong way down the road or a pedestrian or cyclist acts erratically.

These annual reports, which the DMV released Wednesday, provide some insight into where automakers and tech companies stand in the race to develop autonomous vehicles. It's not the only measure, however. Companies are testing self-driving vehicle technology on public roads, research centers, and their own testing facilities other states. But for the companies that did submit reports, it does provide a hint of where they stand and what they're up to.

Waymo (Google) is leading

It takes only the quickest of glances at the reports filed with the California DMV to see that Waymo, the Google self-driving car project that spun out to become its own company, is way ahead in terms of total miles tested on public roads in California.

The numbers are striking—and show that the company has improved its self-driving software.

Waymo vehicles drove nearly 636,000 miles on public roads in 2016, a 49% increase from the previous year. And yet, the number of "disengagements" fell nearly 64% from 341 in 2015 to 124 last year.

In all, the total rate of disengagements per 1,000 miles driven fell from 0.80 to 0.20 over that one year time period, according to the report. It's also notable that Waymo tests in more complex urban and suburban environments, and not highways where there are fewer variables such as children, cyclists, and traffic infrastructure.

"We’ve been able to make dramatic improvements to our technology because we use each of these disengages to teach and refine our car (that’s why we set our thresholds for disengages conservatively), Dmitri Dolgov, head of self-driving tech at Waymo, wrote in a post on Medium. "For each event we can create hundreds?—?and sometimes thousands?—?of related scenarios in simulation, varying the parameters such as the position and speed of other road users in the area."

GM is quickly accelerating

This report is a study in how a big company (and capital and resources that come with it) can catapult a startup forward. Cruise Automation is a San Francisco-based developer of autonomous vehicle technology. And up until it was acquired by General Motors in March 2016 for more than $1 billion, the startup was testing its technology using a few Nissan Leaf vehicles.

The numbers tell the story. In January 2016, Cruise was testing three Nissan Leafs. That number topped out at five in April. A month later, the Nissan Leafs—with names like Scarlet and Quicksilver—began to drop off and 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EVs come onto the testing circuit.

By August, the Nissan Leafs were gone and Cruise had at least nine Chevy Bolts—with names like Pronghorn, Lynx, Platypus, and Cheetah—actively testing. By November, the company had 20 licensed vehicles in its testing lineup, according to the report filed with the California DMV.

Tesla has made it official

Tesla's semi-autonomous driving system Autopilot, which rolled out in October 2015, has made it a leader in advanced driver assistance. Autopilot, a combination of sensors and software, is capable of parallel parking, steering and lane changing on highways. The semi-autonomous system has continued to improve, pushing it ahead of other automakers.

And yet, until 2016 the company wasn't testing self-driving vehicle technology on public roads in California. That has changed. The automaker and energy company started testing four self-driving cars on California’s public roads in 2016, according to its disengagement report filed with the California DMV.

Some automakers didn't do any—or very little—testing in California

There are 21 companies—from Volkswagen and Tesla to startups like Zoox and Drive.ai—that have been issued permits to test self-driving vehicles on public roads. Only 11 filed reports, and some of those reports simply acknowledged that they did not test any vehicles on public roads.

Volkswagen Group of America, which includes luxury brand Audi, didn't do any public testing in California. Honda didn't either. Honda says it currently tests on a closed circuit, non-public course in Contra Costa County in California. BMW had just one vehicle testing in the U.S.

Other tallies of companies testing on public roads in California:

? Bosch: three autonomous vehicles

? Delphi: two autonomous vehicles

? Ford: two autonomous vehicles

? Mercedes: one autonomous vehicle

? Nissan: five autonomous vehicles

These low numbers don't necessarily reflect the level of testing by a particular company. Automakers, tech companies, and suppliers are testing in a variety of other states and on closed courses. ur overall For instance, Ford's overall fleet grew from 10 to 30 vehicles in 2016, although the build was not complete until December, according to a spokesperson. Those vehicles are used for a variety of engineering work, not just on-road testing and are spread throughout locations in Arizona, California, and Michigan.

It should be noted, that California has been focal point in the past for autonomous vehicle development. The low numbers could mean companies are pulling back from California and choosing to test in states with more permissive rules or closer to an automaker's base of operations.

The big question is what are the other 10 companies that didn't file reports up to?

These reports are wildly inconsistent

There is no standard, which means the disengagement reports vary from two pages to more than 34 from Waymo.

Some companies dig into the details, providing the location and specifics of a disengagement. Others simply state total mileage, the number of disengagements, and a brief one or two sentence explanation.

The upshot? It's difficult to provide an accurate assessment of where these companies are in the race to develop autonomous vehicle technology because of this variability.

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