人工智能（AI）技術(shù)預(yù)計(jì)將在10年內(nèi)改變卡車運(yùn)輸行業(yè),，這是自動(dòng)駕駛卡車公司Otto聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人里奧?羅恩的看法,。去年8月,，叫車服務(wù)提供商優(yōu)步收購了Otto,，據(jù)稱收購價(jià)為6.80億美元,。

本周一,，羅恩在舊金山的《MIT Technology Review》人工智能大會(huì)上預(yù)計(jì)，10年內(nèi)無人駕駛卡車就會(huì)在全美國的高速公路上跑常規(guī)線路了,。

羅恩的話和美國商務(wù)部長史蒂夫?努欽的表態(tài)正好相反,。努欽最近接受新聞網(wǎng)站Axios采訪時(shí)說，差不多50-100年內(nèi)人工智能都不會(huì)明顯影響就業(yè),。許多技術(shù)專家和分析師都認(rèn)為努欽作出這番評(píng)價(jià)時(shí)未掌握相關(guān)信息,，原因是人工智能最近取得的進(jìn)展已經(jīng)有可能讓計(jì)算機(jī)執(zhí)行某些任務(wù)的速度超過人，比如在圖片中識(shí)別物體,。

主持人問羅恩,，無人駕駛卡車的興起對(duì)人類卡車司機(jī)來說意味著什么？羅恩回答說,，他們的工作會(huì)發(fā)生巨大的變化,。但他沒有明確表示會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)大面積失業(yè)。

相反,，羅恩說在“可預(yù)見的未來”,，AI技術(shù)會(huì)成為卡車司機(jī)的“合伙駕駛?cè)恕薄Ｋ赋?，“卡車司機(jī)并不是一份輕松的工作”,，他們最多得駕車11個(gè)小時(shí)“才能勉強(qiáng)實(shí)現(xiàn)收支平衡”。

羅恩認(rèn)為,，想當(dāng)卡車司機(jī)的人“不是非常多”,，而且整個(gè)美國都缺這樣的工作機(jī)會(huì)。他相信Otto的技術(shù)有可能讓卡車在比有人駕駛還安全的狀態(tài)下行駛許多個(gè)小時(shí),。

“瞧,，一部分駕駛工作將完全實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)化?！绷_恩指的是自動(dòng)駕駛卡車在高速和普通公路上行駛的想法,。不過，他說卡車在城市中行駛時(shí)仍需要人類司機(jī)來控制方向。

城市街道對(duì)自動(dòng)駕駛車輛來說難度較大,，因?yàn)樗鼈兊脩?yīng)付較多可變因素,，比如行人、紅綠燈和交叉路口,。羅恩說,，“這種工作的性質(zhì)將發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變”，從而讓司機(jī)把更多時(shí)間用于在城市中將卡車開往目的地,，而不是在高速公路上長時(shí)間行駛,。

但羅恩并未提及Otto的母公司優(yōu)步正在積極開發(fā)不需要人為干預(yù)就能在城市中穿行的自動(dòng)駕駛轎車。如果優(yōu)步最終制造出能在城市中安全行駛的自動(dòng)駕駛車輛,，對(duì)人類司機(jī)在城市中駕駛卡車的需求就可能下降,。

應(yīng)當(dāng)注意的是，上周五發(fā)生測試車輛側(cè)翻事故后,，優(yōu)步暫停了亞利桑那州的無人駕駛汽車行駛測試,。

今年2月，自動(dòng)駕駛卡車初創(chuàng)公司Starsky Robotics首次亮相,，它說自己帶來的技術(shù)可以讓卡車司機(jī)在必須穿過城市時(shí)遙控自動(dòng)駕駛卡車,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

Expect artificial intelligence technologies to alter the truck driving industry within the next 10 years. That’s according to Lior Ron, the cofounder of self-driving truck company Otto, which ride-hailing company Uber bought in August for a reported $680 million.

Ron said Monday that he expects driverless trucks to routinely cruise throughout U.S. freeways in the next decade. He made his comments in San Francisco during a MIT Technology Review conference on artificial intelligence.

Ron’s comments contrast with statements made by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Steve Mnuchin, who said in a recent interview with news outlet Axios that AI will not affect jobs in a meaningful way for roughly 50 to 100 years. Many technologists and analysts perceived Mnuchin’s comments on AI and jobs as uninformed when compared to recent AI advancements that have made it possible for computers to perform several tasks, like recognizing objects in pictures, faster than humans.

When a moderator asked Ron what the rise of driver-less trucks means for human truck drivers, Ron acknowledged that their jobs would drastically change. However, he stopped short of explicitly saying there would be widespread job loss.

Instead, Ron said that AI technologies would act as a “co-pilot” to truck drivers for the “foreseeable future.” He said that “being a truck driver is not an easy job” and that it requires workers to drive up to 11 hours “just to make end’s meet.”

Ron said that “not a lot of people” want to be truck drivers and there is a national shortage of available trucking jobs. He believes that his company’s technology will make it possible for trucks to travel for many hours in a safer way than humans.

“Look, some portions of driving will be fully automated,” Ron said referring to the idea of self-driving trucks on freeways and highways. However, he said that there would still be a need for human truck drivers who need to steer the trucks when they drive through cities.

City streets pose a more difficult challenge for self-driving vehicles as they deal with more variables like pedestrians, stoplights, and intersections. He said that the “nature of the jobs will shift,” so that truck drivers would spend more time driving the trucks to their destinations in cities instead of long hours on freeways.

Still, Ron did not mention that Otto’s parent company Uber is actively working on self-driving cars that can drive throughout cities without the need for humans. If Uber were to eventually create autonomous vehicles that can drive safely in cities, there would be less of a need for human truck drivers to have to drive the vehicles in cities.

It should be noted that Uber has suspended test driving of its autonomous vehicles in Arizona after an accident occurred last Friday that left one of its test cars tipped over onto its side.

In February, a new self-driving truck startup Starsky Robotics debuted with technology that the company said would let truck drivers remotely control self-driving trucks when they have to drive through cities.