歐洲央行及其行長(zhǎng)在一個(gè)問(wèn)題上已經(jīng)達(dá)成了共識(shí),，那就是他們不會(huì)再掉進(jìn)同一個(gè)坑了。也就是說(shuō),，雖然歐洲的政治風(fēng)氣仍有一些民粹氛圍,，意大利央行這顆定時(shí)炸彈也依然存在引爆的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但作為世界第二大央行的歐洲央行絕不會(huì)再出昏招,，將此次歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇扼殺在搖籃里,。

盡管歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)已處于六年來(lái)最活躍的水平,，盡管右翼民粹主義政客瑪麗娜?勒龐在此次法國(guó)大選中落敗幾成定局，盡管面臨德國(guó)人洶涌的民意壓力,，不過(guò)在歐洲央行政策制定委員會(huì)近日的一次新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上,，歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧?德拉基仍未透露任何一絲要收緊貨幣政策的意思。

隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)推出持續(xù)了近十年的大手筆的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策,，歐洲央行繼續(xù)開(kāi)閘放水的決定,，對(duì)于全球金融市場(chǎng)也顯得越發(fā)重要。

由于歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治前景日益明朗,，上周早些時(shí)候,，歐元兌美元匯率曾一度攀升到近五個(gè)月來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)。隨后隨著金融市場(chǎng)的預(yù)期回落,，歐元匯率也應(yīng)聲下降近0.005美元,，而歐洲斯托克50指數(shù)則彌補(bǔ)了此前遭受的大部分損失。

德拉基與歐洲央行并非沒(méi)有意識(shí)到歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)正在向好（畢竟他們不愿意放棄任何一個(gè)往自己身上攬功的機(jī)會(huì)）,。德拉基本人也表示,，歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇之路也由以前的“脆弱和不均衡”變成了現(xiàn)在的“全面而穩(wěn)固”。之前狀況頻出的幾個(gè)國(guó)家,，如西班牙,、愛(ài)爾蘭和法國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率也達(dá)到甚至超過(guò)了德國(guó)這個(gè)老牌歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)火車(chē)頭的水平。

德拉基指出：“情況的確有所改善,，局面正在變好,。”經(jīng)濟(jì)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)“進(jìn)一步弱化”,，目前僅僅略高于上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。

同時(shí)，歐洲央行也絲毫沒(méi)有表現(xiàn)出要終止大規(guī)模購(gòu)買(mǎi)資產(chǎn)的計(jì)劃,。歐洲央行的購(gòu)債規(guī)模雖然已經(jīng)調(diào)低至了每月600億歐元（約660億美元）,。但這樣的購(gòu)債規(guī)模至少還將持續(xù)至今年年底。

另外,，當(dāng)問(wèn)到歐洲退出當(dāng)前的緊急政策狀態(tài)的“順序”時(shí),，德拉基顯然是上了套，直言目前沒(méi)有討論退出寬松政策的順序的必要——否則他本來(lái)可以利用這次機(jī)會(huì)暗示央行有可能會(huì)在量化寬松結(jié)束前提高利率,。歐洲央行的主要再融資利率連續(xù)13個(gè)月都定在0%,，存款利率則為-0.4%——也就是說(shuō)各國(guó)要想將多余資金存放在歐洲央行，則要向其支付0.4%的利息,。

德拉基的發(fā)言一邊對(duì)歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)前景表示看好,，一邊卻淡化了歐洲央行采取動(dòng)作的意愿，乍看起來(lái)似乎在打太極,。同時(shí)德拉基還表示,，目前歐洲的通脹水平尚無(wú)明顯的上行趨勢(shì)（目前仍未達(dá)到略低于2%的中期目標(biāo)）,。同時(shí)他也提醒現(xiàn)場(chǎng)媒體，英國(guó)脫歐以及貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（尤其是美國(guó)挑起的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)）仍然存在,，即便這兩大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較六個(gè)月前稍有淡化,。

不過(guò)分析師們認(rèn)為，此項(xiàng)歐洲央行之所以按兵不動(dòng),，背后大有深意,。

柏林貝林貝格銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家霍爾格?施米丁指出：“歐洲央行可能不想重復(fù)六年前犯過(guò)的同樣的錯(cuò)誤，就在歐元期經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā)前,，歐洲央行草率地采取了加息政策?！碑?dāng)時(shí)歐洲央行沒(méi)有意識(shí)到歐元區(qū)的金融體系已經(jīng)到了千創(chuàng)百孔的地步,，對(duì)當(dāng)時(shí)的通脹率的升高做出了過(guò)度反應(yīng)。然而接下來(lái)造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂使歐元區(qū)幾乎到了破裂的邊緣,，直到德拉基本人站出來(lái),，承諾要“不惜一切代價(jià)拯救歐元”，才穩(wěn)住了局面,。

上周四,，德拉基堅(jiān)稱(chēng)歐洲央行能分得清“事實(shí)、評(píng)估和歷史”,。不過(guò)在2011年,，正是由于歐洲央行那次災(zāi)難性的誤判，才使得他繼任讓?克勞德?特里謝成為了歐洲央行的行長(zhǎng),，而不是來(lái)自德國(guó)的貨幣政策鷹派阿克塞爾?韋伯,。

看來(lái)他并非沒(méi)有吸取這種重大的人生教訓(xùn)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

The Who and the European Central Bank have this much in common: they won't get fooled again. That is to say, no way will the world's 2nd largest central bank kill off the Eurozone's recovery while there's still a whiff of political populism in the air, or the slightest risk of a bad Italian bank blowing up.

Despite the fact that Eurozone economic activity is at a six-year high, despite the near-certain defeat of the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in France's presidential elections, and despite the relentless pressure of German public opinion, President Mario Draghi refused to even hint at tightening monetary policy at the press conference that followed the latest meeting of the ECB's policy-making council.

The ECB's determination to keep the monetary spigots wide open is arguably becoming more important for the world's financial markets as the Federal Reserve exits from a near-decade of extraordinary stimulus.

The euro, which had hit a five-month high against the dollar on the back of a brightening economic and political outlook earlier this week, lost nearly half a cent as traders pushed back expectations of a return to a more normal stance, while the Euro Stoxx 50 index recouped most of the earlier losses it had suffered.

It's not that Draghi and his colleagues don't recognize how much better the Eurozone economy is performing now (they never lose an opportunity to take as much credit as possible for that, after all). Draghi said that where the recovery had once been "fragile and uneven" it was now "broad and solid." Former problem countries such as Spain, Ireland and France are now growing as fast as, or even faster, than Germany, the region's usual powerhouse.

"It's true things are improving. Things are getting better," Draghi said. Downside risks "have further diminished," and now only just outweigh the upside risks.

But not so much better that the ECB was willing even to discuss ending its asset purchases, which it has now scaled down to a 'mere' 60 billion euros ($66 billion) a month. That will still run at least through the end of the year.

And not so much better that Draghi took the bait when asked about 'sequencing' the exit from the current emergency policy stance – which would have allowed him to hint at raising interest rates before the Quantitative Easing program ends. The ECB's main refinancing rate has been set at 0% for the last 13 months, and it has been charging banks 0.4% for parking their excess funds with it in that time.

Talking up the economy while talking down the Bank's willingness to act is hard to square at first sight. Draghi did so by saying there was still no clear upward trend in underlying inflation (which is still undershooting a medium-term target of just under 2%). He also reminded his audience that the risks of Brexit or a (likely U.S.-initiated) trade war hadn't gone away either, even though both seem less likely now than they did six months ago.

However, analysts said there was more to it than that.

"The ECB probably does not want to repeat the mistake it made almost exactly six years ago when it prematurely hiked rates just before the Eurozone crisis erupted," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in Berlin. Back then, the ECB had failed to recognize how badly broken the Eurozone's financial system was, and had over-reacted to an uptick in headline inflation. The ensuing mess stretched the currency union to the point of breaking, before Draghi himself rescued the situation with the promise to "do whatever it takes to save the euro."

Draghi insisted Thursday the ECB was capable of distinguishing between "facts, assessments and history," but it was that disastrous miscalculation that ensured it was he, and not the German monetary hawk Axel Weber, who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet at the head of the ECB back in 2011.

Those kind of life lessons tend not to be unlearned.