特斯拉（Tesla）在今年3月初表示,，公司2016年在中國的汽車銷售額達(dá)到了10億美元，這震驚了所有人,。

直到當(dāng)時(shí),，對(duì)于特斯拉在中國表現(xiàn)的論調(diào)，還是他們無法取得成功,。由于高昂的關(guān)稅和增值稅,，特斯拉的Model S和Model X在中國的售價(jià)比其他國家要高50%，這意味著他們?cè)谶@個(gè)全球最大的汽車市場只能當(dāng)一個(gè)小角色,。一位分析師甚至表示,，伊隆?馬斯克在登陸火星之前都進(jìn)入不了中國市場。

在公布去年銷售額之后,，業(yè)界認(rèn)為他們可能有望扭轉(zhuǎn)在中國市場的表現(xiàn),。而他們今年第一季度在中國的數(shù)據(jù)表明，強(qiáng)勢(shì)的增長仍在繼續(xù),。

根據(jù)紐約研究公司JL Warren Capital的數(shù)據(jù),，今年的頭三個(gè)月，特斯拉對(duì)中國輸出了4,799輛Model S和Model X的SUV,，同比增長350%,。如果特斯拉在一整年都保持這個(gè)勢(shì)頭，今年的輸出總數(shù)就將達(dá)到去年的接近兩倍,。不過JL Warren Capital的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，該公司的銷量在年末會(huì)進(jìn)一步提升,，因此特斯拉今年的銷量很可能會(huì)比去年翻番還多。

中國市場對(duì)于特斯拉的重要性,，在今年可能會(huì)大幅提升,。去年，公司在中國的銷售額為10億美元,，占銷售總額的15%,，如果今年在中國的銷量翻倍，銷售額就將達(dá)到20億美元,，分析師預(yù)計(jì),，這會(huì)使得公司的銷售總額達(dá)到115億美元。

最新的一季度數(shù)據(jù)是特斯拉的汽車輸出數(shù),，而不是實(shí)際購買數(shù),。不過在中國，這兩個(gè)數(shù)值基本相等,。這家位于加利福尼亞的公司在中國幾乎沒有庫存,。中國消費(fèi)者會(huì)在特斯拉的網(wǎng)站定制產(chǎn)品，選擇五座,、六座或七座版的Model X,，以及是否安裝HEPA空氣過濾器，隨后特斯拉會(huì)在美國組裝汽車,，再運(yùn)到中國。從下單到提車,，期間要等四個(gè)月,。

第一季度銷量的迅猛增長，可能會(huì)讓特斯拉的投資者遐想,，如果特斯拉與中國本土公司合資在當(dāng)?shù)厣a(chǎn)汽車,，從而避免25%的關(guān)稅和17%的增值稅，與此同時(shí)他們的電動(dòng)汽車還能讓買家拿到中國政府相對(duì)于售價(jià)35%的補(bǔ)貼,，會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么情況,。中國中央和地方政府對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的補(bǔ)貼預(yù)計(jì)到2020年才會(huì)逐步停止。

何時(shí)建立合資企業(yè),，目前我們尚不清楚,，特斯拉對(duì)此也不予評(píng)論。不過《財(cái)富》上周報(bào)道稱,，特斯拉正在會(huì)見中國各個(gè)城市的潛在合作者,。早在2014年，首席執(zhí)行官伊隆?馬斯克就表示,，公司可能會(huì)在2017年或2018年前后開始在中國當(dāng)?shù)刂圃炱嚒?/p>

如果不建立合資企業(yè),，特斯拉在中國的銷量遲早會(huì)因?yàn)楦叩某杀驹庥銎款i,。不過即便最密切關(guān)注特斯拉的分析師也無法預(yù)測(cè)瓶頸在何處。

而特斯拉在第一季度銷量的迅猛增長顯示,，至少公司還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒有達(dá)到這個(gè)瓶頸,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

In early March, Tesla surprised everyone when it said it had just sold $1 billion worth of vehicles in China in 2016.

Until then, the narrative surrounding Tesla in China was that the company just didn’t get it. Because of high tariffs and taxes, Tesla’s Model S and Model X cost 50% more in the country than elsewhere, meaning Tesla would remain a bit player in the world’s largest market for cars. One analyst declared Elon Musk would reach Mars before cracking China.

Tesla’s sales disclosure last year created a new narrative that Tesla might be on the path to turning China into a thriving market. And new first quarter data of Tesla’s China imports suggest that Tesla kept up its blazing growth.

Tesla imported 4,799 Model S and Model X SUVs into China in the first three months of this year, 350% more than the first quarter of 2016, according to data from JL Warren Capital, a New York-based researcher. If Tesla keeps up the pace throughout this year, the number of imports would nearly double its total last year. But since Tesla sales have increased towards the end of the calendar year in the country, JL Warren Capital’s data shows, Tesla is more likely to more than double last year’s sales.

China will likely become much more important to Tesla this year. Last year's $1 billion in China sales composed about 15% of the company’s total; China revenue might reach $2 billion this year, if it doubles along with car sales, as Tesla’s total company revenue reaches $11.5 billion, analysts predict.

The latest first quarter data track imports, not end sales to buyers. But Tesla sells about as many cars as it imports in China. The California company keeps almost no inventory in the country. When Chinese buyers customize their car on Tesla’s website, choosing five, six or seven seats in the Model X SUV and whether to go for the big HEPA air filter, Tesla assembles the vehicle in the U.S. before shipping it over. Four months later, the Chinese buyer has her car.

The first quarter sales boomlet may lead Tesla investors to wonder what happens when Tesla builds cars in China under a joint venture with a local Chinese company and can avoid a 25% tariff and 17% value-added tax, while at the same time making its cars available for government subsidies, which today cut the buyer's cost of some Chinese electric cars by 35%. Those central and local government subsidies are set to be phased out by 2020.

The timing of a joint venture is unknown and Tesla won’t comment. But as Fortune reported last week, Tesla is in the midst of meeting potential partners from different Chinese cities, according to a high-level official from China's auto lobby. Back in 2014, CEO Elon Musk said the company would begin building cars locally in China around 2017 or 2018.

Without a joint venture, Tesla’s sales in China face a ceiling because of their higher costs. Not even the closest-watching analysts can predict what that number is.

But as Tesla’s fast growing first quarter sales attest, for now the company is far from reaching it.