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只要花20萬(wàn)美元就能去火星生活,?馬斯克說(shuō)可以

只要花20萬(wàn)美元就能去火星生活?馬斯克說(shuō)可以

Aric Jenkins 2017年06月19日
馬斯克在本月早些時(shí)候的《新太空》雜志上發(fā)表了一篇論文,,詳細(xì)闡述了在火星建設(shè)“自給自足的城市”的愿景,。

如果不能找到新的恒星,移民新的行星,,人類終將走向滅絕,。

至少埃隆·馬斯克是這樣說(shuō)的,。這位科技行業(yè)的億萬(wàn)富翁在本月早些時(shí)候的《新太空》(New Space)雜志上發(fā)表了一篇論文,,詳細(xì)闡述了在火星建設(shè)“自給自足的城市”的愿景。這篇論文周三被發(fā)布在網(wǎng)上,。

這篇共16頁(yè)的論文詳細(xì)介紹了SpaceX CEO過(guò)去幾年一直在思考的一些想法,,總結(jié)了他在去年9月份墨西哥國(guó)際宇航聯(lián)大會(huì)(International Aeronautical Congress)上的演講內(nèi)容。現(xiàn)在他把對(duì)火星之旅的大概想法變成了文字,還配上了圖表和插圖,。這將更方便科學(xué)界研究他的火星移民計(jì)劃,。

馬斯克的論文非常直白,在他的筆下,,這段大約1.4億英里的旅程似乎沒(méi)有太大難度,。他說(shuō)道:“實(shí)際上有一種方法可以讓想要移民火星的人們得償所愿?!瘪R斯克表示,,目前的主要障礙是將人類運(yùn)往火星的高昂運(yùn)輸成本。他估計(jì),,如果使用傳統(tǒng)方法,,例如1969年將人類送上月球所使用的方法,每張票的成本將高達(dá)100億美元,。但馬斯克心中有一個(gè)更可行的目標(biāo),。

他寫(xiě)道:“只要我們能將前往火星的成本降到相當(dāng)于美國(guó)一套普通住房的價(jià)格,也就是大約200,000美元,,我認(rèn)為在火星上建設(shè)自給自足的人類文明的可能性是非常高的,。我想這一定能實(shí)現(xiàn)?!?/p>

為了將火星之旅的成本降低“五百萬(wàn)個(gè)百分點(diǎn)”,,馬斯克列出了幾個(gè)步驟:宇宙飛船必須完全可以重復(fù)使用,可以在地球軌道上填充燃料,,而在火星上建設(shè)的生產(chǎn)設(shè)備將生產(chǎn)燃料供飛船使用,。馬斯克認(rèn)為甲烷是理想的火箭推進(jìn)劑,因?yàn)樵诨鹦巧现谱骷淄榈募夹g(shù)難度要低于提取氫或其他物質(zhì)的難度,。他認(rèn)為氫燃料的成本過(guò)高,。

只要滿足了工程學(xué)方面的要求,接下來(lái)就是發(fā)射時(shí)間問(wèn)題,。論文中的插圖顯示,,馬斯克希望最早在2023年啟動(dòng)火星飛行計(jì)劃。他在論文中寫(xiě)道,,建立一座自給自足的城市,,至少需要一百萬(wàn)人口,而一艘宇宙飛船每?jī)赡昕梢赃\(yùn)送100人,。他表示,,按照這個(gè)速度,“在火星上建立完全自給自足的文明,,需要40 - 100年”,。

馬斯克在論文的一張表格中預(yù)測(cè),,2020年開(kāi)始首次試飛之后,從地球飛往火星平均將需要115天時(shí)間,。而且這位商業(yè)巨頭表示,,整個(gè)旅程會(huì)非常有趣,。

“……旅程會(huì)既有趣又令人興奮——你不會(huì)感覺(jué)擁擠或無(wú)聊,”馬斯克寫(xiě)道。 “飛船上將設(shè)置駕駛艙或乘員艙,,乘客可以玩失重游戲,,四處飄來(lái)飄去,。還會(huì)有電影,、講堂、客艙和餐廳,。這會(huì)是一段非常有趣的旅程,。你會(huì)過(guò)得很愉快!”

馬斯克表示,,這項(xiàng)事業(yè)需要公私合作,,由SpaceX、私營(yíng)部門(mén)和政府共同出資,。

美國(guó)宇航局(NASA)在提供給《財(cái)富》雜志的一份聲明中表示:“NASA支持所有想要實(shí)現(xiàn)下一次巨大飛躍和推動(dòng)人類外太空探索事業(yè)的人,。我們很高興看到國(guó)際社會(huì)正在努力迎接在火星上建立可持續(xù)人類文明的挑戰(zhàn)?;鹦侵眯枰蜆I(yè)內(nèi)最優(yōu)秀,、最聰明的人才加入,火星成為一個(gè)重要的議題,,令我們備受鼓舞,。”

馬斯克為什么認(rèn)為人類應(yīng)該將火星作為移民目的地,,而不是月球,?

他寫(xiě)道:“我認(rèn)為在月球上實(shí)現(xiàn)人類多行星化是非常困難的,因?yàn)樵虑虻捏w積遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于行星,。月球上沒(méi)有大氣層,。資源也沒(méi)有火星豐富。月球上的一天相當(dāng)于地球上28天,,而火星上的一天是地球上的24.5個(gè)小時(shí),。”

他說(shuō)道:“總之,,火星更適合逐步增加移民人數(shù),,建立自給自足的人類文明?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

Humanity will go extinct unless it reaches for the stars and colonizes a new planet.

That's what Elon Musk says, at least. The tech billionaire wrote a new paper detailing his vision for a "self-sustaining city" on Mars that was published in the scientific journal New Space earlier this month and posted online Wednesday.

The 16-page commentary details ideas the SpaceX CEO has been mulling over for years and most recently presented at the International Aeronautical Congress in Mexico last September. But his outline for the journey is now available in print, complete with accompanying charts and illustrations. Now, the scientific community will be able to scrutinize the proposal at its convenience.

Musk writes the paper in such a candid manner that he almost makes the roughly 140 million mile trip seem easy. " There really is a way that anyone could go if they wanted to," he says. The main obstacle, Musk argues, is the high cost of transporting people to the red planet. Using traditional methods like the approach that was used to send men to the moon in 1969, he estimates that it would cost about $10 billion per ticket. Musk has a much more feasible target in mind.

"If we can get the cost of moving to Mars to be roughly equivalent to a median house price in the United States, which is around $200,000, then I think the probability of establishing a self-sustaining civilization is very high," Musk writes. "I think it would almost certainly occur."

In order to achieve that price point, Musk outlines several steps to improve the cost of Mars travel by "five million percent": Spaceships must be fully reusable, they should be able to refuel in orbit, and then once again on Mars with fuel that is yielded from production plants built on the planet. Musk states that methane is the ideal propellant because the technical challenges to harvest it on Mars are significantly easier than substances like hydrogen, which he says is too expensive.

Once the engineering demands are met, it would be time to take off — which Musk is hopeful could begin as soon as 2023, according to an illustration in the paper. At least one million people would be needed to establish a self-sustaining city, he writes, estimating that spacecraft would be able to accommodate 100 people every two years. At that rate, he says it'll take "40-100 years to achieve a fully self-sustaining civilization on Mars."

A table in Musk's paper shows estimates that ships departing from Earth will take an average of 115 days to get to Mars once initial test flights begin in 2020. And the trip will be highly entertaining, according to the business mogul.

"... It has got to be really fun and exciting — it cannot feel cramped or boring," Musk writes. "Therefore, the crew compartment or the occupant compartment is set up so that you can do zero-gravity games — you can float around. There will be movies, lecture halls, cabins, and a restaurant. It will be really fun to go. You are going to have a great time!"

Musk says that ultimately the undertaking will be an enormous public private partnership funded between SpaceX, the private sector and the government.

"NASA applauds all those who want to take the next giant leap – and advance human exploration in deep space. We are very pleased that the global community is working to meet the challenges of a sustainable human presence on Mars," the space agency said in a statement to Fortune. "This journey will require the best and the brightest minds from government and industry, and the fact that Mars is a major topic of discussion is very encouraging."

And why should mankind look towards Mars instead of, say, the Moon, according to Musk?

"I think it is challenging to become multi-planetary on the moon because it is much smaller than a planet," he writes. "It does not have any atmosphere. It is not as resource-rich as Mars. It has got a 28-day day, whereas the Mars day is 24.5 hours.

"In general, Mars is far better-suited ultimately to scale up to be a self-sustaining civilization," Musk says.

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