英國(guó)科學(xué)家上周三表示,，再過(guò)“幾周、幾天甚至幾小時(shí)”,，一座巨大的冰山就將從南極的拉爾森C冰架上分離出來(lái),。

英國(guó)科學(xué)家寫道：“冰山一旦崩解，拉爾森C冰架將會(huì)失去超過(guò)10%的面積,，其冰蓋也將退縮到有記載以來(lái)最靠后的位置,。這一事件將徹底改變南極半島的地形地貌?！?/p>

這座預(yù)計(jì)將分離出來(lái)的冰山的面積與美國(guó)的特拉華州大致相當(dāng),，這也使它成為科學(xué)家們有史以來(lái)觀測(cè)到的最大的冰山之一?？蒲腥藛T估計(jì)，這一災(zāi)難有可能引發(fā)整個(gè)拉爾森C冰架的坍塌,，最終可能導(dǎo)致全球海平面升高4英寸,。

此次災(zāi)難甚至有可能導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)都遭受到其負(fù)面影響。今年三月,，英國(guó)《衛(wèi)報(bào)》報(bào)道稱,，全球沿海地區(qū)有價(jià)值數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元的資產(chǎn)正面臨著被海水淹沒(méi)的危險(xiǎn)。德國(guó)的研究人員估計(jì)，全球海平面每升高4.3英寸（約11厘米）,，帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失就會(huì)增加一倍,。（有沒(méi)有人借機(jī)發(fā)“海難財(cái)”呢？當(dāng)然有,。一些保險(xiǎn)公司和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析師都認(rèn)為,，銷售“海水損失險(xiǎn)”，是借助冰山融化大賺一筆的好機(jī)會(huì),。）

此次發(fā)布南極冰山斷裂警報(bào)的,，是一個(gè)叫做“MIDAS工程”的南極研究組織，該組織主要研究全球氣候變化對(duì)南極冰架的影響,。

《今日美國(guó)》指出：“并無(wú)證據(jù)表明這道裂縫的增大乃至冰山的最終斷裂與氣候變化之間有任何聯(lián)系,。”不過(guò)科學(xué)界已經(jīng)普遍認(rèn)為,，海洋與大氣溫度的升高是導(dǎo)致此前南極半島上幾次冰山崩解事件的因素之一,。（比如1995年的拉爾森A冰架，和2002年的拉爾森B冰架,。）（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

A massive iceberg is “hours, days, or weeks” away from separating from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf, scientists based in the United Kingdom said Wednesday.

“When it calves, the Larsen C Ice Shelf will lose more than 10% of its area to leave the ice front at its most retreated position ever recorded," the scientists wrote. "This event will fundamentally change the landscape of the Antarctic Peninsula."

The iceberg that forms from the predicted separation could end up being roughly the size of Delaware, making it one of the largest icebergs that scientists have ever observed. The event could trigger a collapse of the entire Larsen C ice shelf, a catastrophe that could raise worldwide sea levels by four inches, researchers estimate.

That outcome has the potential to harm the world’s economy. In March, the Guardian reported that trillions of dollars of coastal assets were at risk of flooding. Researchers in Germany estimate that economic losses double for every 4.3-inch (11 cm) increase in sea levels. (The silver lining? Insurance companies and risk analysts see a potential big business in selling flooding insurance to capitalize on potential deluges caused by melting ice caps.)

The scientists behind the Larsen C prediction are part of an Antarctic research group called Project MIDAS that investigates how global climate change impacts the ice shelf.

"There is no evidence to link the growth of this rift, and the eventual calving, to climate change," USA Today notes—though it is widely accepted in the scientific community that warming ocean and atmospheric temperatures were a factor in earlier disintegrations of ice shelves (e.g. Larsen A in 1995, Larsen B in 2002) on the Antarctic Peninsula.