上周,，法國(guó)宣布了一項(xiàng)十分激進(jìn)的計(jì)劃：在2040年全面禁止銷(xiāo)售完全以汽油或柴油為動(dòng)力的車(chē)輛。其他國(guó)家，像印度和挪威,，也有意實(shí)施類(lèi)似計(jì)劃,。然而，美國(guó)是否有能力或應(yīng)不應(yīng)該實(shí)施這樣的政策,？

專(zhuān)家說(shuō),，這個(gè)問(wèn)題回答起來(lái)很復(fù)雜。其中一個(gè)問(wèn)題在于,，美國(guó)民眾對(duì)于氣候變化有著不同的看法,。一些很早就已接受電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的人群通過(guò)購(gòu)買(mǎi)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)來(lái)減輕環(huán)境負(fù)擔(dān)。然而,，有52%的美國(guó)人認(rèn)為人類(lèi)活動(dòng)與氣候變化無(wú)關(guān),，因此環(huán)保愿景對(duì)于他們來(lái)說(shuō)沒(méi)有說(shuō)服力。在聯(lián)邦層面,，最近決定退出《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普在替代能源方面的熱情顯然不及前幾任總統(tǒng),。

紐約大學(xué)管理與機(jī)構(gòu)學(xué)教授梅麗莎·奇林表示，“我曾經(jīng)在美國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)院的一個(gè)委員會(huì)工作過(guò),，研究電動(dòng)汽車(chē)推廣所面臨的障礙,。我們認(rèn)為連碳稅都無(wú)法通過(guò)，而且那時(shí)候還是奧巴馬執(zhí)政時(shí)期,。那一屆政府比現(xiàn)任政府更注重環(huán)保,。”

另一個(gè)問(wèn)題在于美國(guó)巨大的國(guó)土面積和地理環(huán)境的多樣性,。純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的表現(xiàn)在某些環(huán)境下要優(yōu)于其他動(dòng)力的交通工具,。卡耐基梅隆大學(xué)去年發(fā)布的調(diào)查顯示,，如果考慮區(qū)域氣候,、當(dāng)?shù)匕l(fā)電方式以及高速公路與市區(qū)內(nèi)行駛里程等因素，一些電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的碳排放量可能要比類(lèi)似混合動(dòng)力的車(chē)大得多,。例如,，該研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，盡管純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)日產(chǎn)LEAF的碳印記在某些地區(qū)要低于電油混合動(dòng)力的豐田普銳斯,，但普銳斯在其他地區(qū)則更環(huán)保,。

該調(diào)查的聯(lián)席作者、卡耐基梅隆大學(xué)工程與公共政策教授杰瑞米·米克拉克說(shuō)：“相對(duì)于直接禁止某項(xiàng)技術(shù),，我們莫不如制定一個(gè)最終目標(biāo),，例如減排目標(biāo)，因?yàn)槟承┢秃筒裼蛙?chē)在減排方面還有很多潛力可挖,，而電動(dòng)汽車(chē)在這些領(lǐng)域反而更具破壞力,?！苯苋鹈住っ卓死诉€擔(dān)任該校汽車(chē)電動(dòng)化集團(tuán)的董事,。

有些人認(rèn)為,，全力推動(dòng)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的發(fā)展有其合理的經(jīng)濟(jì)因素考量。5月,，獨(dú)立智囊團(tuán)RethinkX發(fā)布了一篇報(bào)道,，預(yù)測(cè)“運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域的革命以及內(nèi)燃機(jī)交通工具和石油行業(yè)的崩塌”即將于2030年開(kāi)始。集團(tuán)聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人詹姆斯·艾比布認(rèn)為,，美國(guó)應(yīng)支持這一轉(zhuǎn)型,，以獲取電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。他預(yù)計(jì),，無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)將與電動(dòng)汽車(chē)齊頭并進(jìn),，進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。

艾比布對(duì)《財(cái)富》說(shuō)：“這對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)是一個(gè)巨大的提振,。此舉會(huì)增加可支配收入,，因?yàn)槿藗冊(cè)谲?chē)方面的花費(fèi)會(huì)大大降低。人們開(kāi)車(chē)耗費(fèi)的時(shí)間達(dá)到了數(shù)十億個(gè)小時(shí),，他們可以利用節(jié)省出來(lái)的時(shí)間做一些富有成效的事情,，而這在開(kāi)車(chē)時(shí)是做不到的，同時(shí)還不用為市區(qū)停車(chē)而發(fā)愁,?！卑炔歼€指出，聯(lián)邦政府可能會(huì)讓各州自行決定是否禁止使用燃油動(dòng)力車(chē),。然而,，這對(duì)于駕駛?cè)加蛣?dòng)力車(chē)進(jìn)行跨州旅行的人來(lái)說(shuō)是不切實(shí)際的，他們可能會(huì)在邊境上被攔住,。

咨詢(xún)公司AlixPartners的董事總經(jīng)理兼汽車(chē)業(yè)務(wù)全球負(fù)責(zé)人馬克·維克菲爾德認(rèn)為,，與內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車(chē)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手相比，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的價(jià)格依然過(guò)于昂貴,。例如,，2017年日產(chǎn)LEAF的起步價(jià)位30680美元，而豐田普銳斯的價(jià)格為23475美元,，更不用說(shuō)高端的特斯拉,，它的最高價(jià)格達(dá)到了近10萬(wàn)美元。

全球的立法者們想出了多種辦法來(lái)降低使用電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的成本,。在美國(guó),，聯(lián)邦政府和一些州政府所提供的一些鼓勵(lì)政策大幅降低了電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的最終價(jià)格。然而,，維克菲爾德認(rèn)為,，混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)可以成為一個(gè)有效,、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)保的權(quán)宜之計(jì),，同時(shí)還不用擔(dān)心純電動(dòng)車(chē)的高成本問(wèn)題和其他缺點(diǎn),，例如無(wú)需在長(zhǎng)途旅行中頻繁充電。

他解釋說(shuō)：“雖然法國(guó)已經(jīng)邁出了這一步,，但他們也表現(xiàn)出了務(wù)實(shí)的一面,。盡管法國(guó)正在推行這一政策，但他們也在轉(zhuǎn)而使用最具效益的方法,。很顯然,，法國(guó)正在幫助其工業(yè)向這一方面轉(zhuǎn)型，同時(shí)他們也很務(wù)實(shí),，因?yàn)樗麄冏⒁獾交旌蟿?dòng)力是一個(gè)更加經(jīng)濟(jì)的選擇,。”

維克菲爾德和米克拉克都表示,，隨著電動(dòng)汽車(chē)價(jià)格的日漸實(shí)惠（與燃油動(dòng)力車(chē)相比）,，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)會(huì)變得越來(lái)越有吸引力。一旦出現(xiàn)這種情況,，美國(guó)人便會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),，內(nèi)燃機(jī)車(chē)輛禁令并非是難以接受。隨著電動(dòng)汽車(chē)技術(shù)的繼續(xù)發(fā)展,，以及像特斯拉,、沃爾沃這樣的汽車(chē)制造商繼續(xù)投資這一領(lǐng)域，其成本最終會(huì)下降,。但是就現(xiàn)在看來(lái),，在美國(guó)全面禁止燃油動(dòng)力汽車(chē)仍是不可行的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

審稿：夏林

France this week announced a bold plan to ban the sale of all fully-gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles by 2040. Other countries, like India and Norway, have expressed interest in similar plans. But could, or should, the United States implement such a policy?

The answer, experts say, is complicated. One problem is the country's mixed attitude towards climate change. Some early adopters of electric vehicles are buying the cars to be more eco-friendly. But that motivation wouldn't drive the 52% of Americans who don't believe human activity is changing the climate. And at the federal level, President Donald Trump, who recently decided to exit the Paris climate accords, has been cooler towards alternative energy solutions than past presidents.

"When I was serving on a committee studying the obstacles to adoption of electric vehicles at the National Academy of Sciences, we concluded that there was no possibility of even getting a carbon tax passed, and that was under the Obama administration, which had a much more pro-environment stance than our current administration," said Melissa Schilling, a professor of management and organizations at New York University.

Another issue is the country's sheer size and geographic diversity. Fully electric vehicles perform better in some environments than others. A study from Carnegie Mellon University published last year found that some electric cars can produce significantly more emissions than similar hybrid vehicles depending on factors like regional climate, local power generation methods and the amount of highway versus city driving being done. For example, the study found that while the entirely battery-powered Nissan LEAF has a smaller carbon footprint than the gas-electric hybrid Toyota Prius in some areas, the Prius was more eco-friendly in others.

"It's better to target an end goal like emissions reduction rather than the outright banning of a technology because there are certain gas and diesel vehicles that can do a lot towards limiting emissions, whereas electric cars can actually be more damaging," said Jeremy Michalek, co-author of the study and a professor of engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon, where he also serves as the director of the school's Vehicle Electrification Group.

Some argue there are good economic reasons to go full speed ahead on electric cars. In May, independent think tank RethinkX published a report predicting a "disruption of transportation and the collapse of the internal combustion vehicle and oil industries" starting as soon as 2030. James Arbib, cofounder of the group, believes the U.S. should support that transition to reap the economic benefits of electric vehicles, which he expects will converge with the development of autonomous driving technology, spurring further growth.

"This is a huge boost of the economy," Arbib told Fortune. "It will lead to more disposable income because people will spend far less on their cars. People will have time freed up which they can use to do productive things that they can't when driving — billions of hours — and less need for parking throughout cities." Arbib added that the federal government could leave a potential ban on gasoline cars up to the states, but that could prove unworkable for interstate road-trippers with gas-powered cars who may find themselves blocked at the border.

Mark Wakefield, managing director and global co-head of the automotive practice at consulting firm AlixPartners, argues that electric vehicles remain too expensive compared to their internal combustion counterparts. For example, the 2017 Nissan LEAF starts at $30,680 compared to $23,475 for a comparable Toyota Prius. That's to say nothing of high-end Teslas, which can cost upwards of $100,000.

Lawmakers worldwide have pushed for ways to bring down the costs of going electric. In the U.S., the federal government and some states offer incentives that can considerably reduce the final price of electric vehicles. But Wakefield argues that hybrid vehicles can be an effective, affordable and eco-friendly stopgap solution without the high costs and other drawbacks of entirely electric cars, like the need to frequently recharge on long trips.

"As far as France pushed their policy, they have also showed a pragmatism that while they are pushing for this, they are also changing their methods to what's most cost-effective," he explained. "It's certainly helping move their industry towards that, they were practical because they saw that hybrids are a much more economic answer."

Wakefield and Michalek both said that electric vehicles will likely become more attractive to consumers as they become more affordable compared to gasoline cars. If and when that happens, Americans could find a ban on internal combustion vehicles could become more palatable. As electric vehicle technology continues to improve and automakers like Tesla and Volvo continue to invest in the field, costs may eventually come down. But for now, an outright ban on gasoline cars on American roads remains unlikely.