伴隨著轟轟烈烈的宣傳和必將成為主流的看好聲,，特斯拉最近高調(diào)推出了其最新款的Model 3轎車。這款新車的續(xù)航里程為350多公里,，3.5萬(wàn)美元的起售價(jià)也是較為實(shí)惠的,，基本與凱利藍(lán)皮書（Kelley Blue Book）給出的目前市場(chǎng)上34,721美元的新車銷售均價(jià)保持一致。但現(xiàn)在就說(shuō)Model 3是一款“主流”轎車,，似乎有一點(diǎn)“欽定了”的意思,，畢竟不管怎么說(shuō)它都是一臺(tái)電動(dòng)轎車。實(shí)際上,，Model 3唯一“主流”的,，也就只有它的價(jià)格了。

我在2014年曾為國(guó)美國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)院的國(guó)家研究委員會(huì)撰寫過(guò)一篇名叫《克服插電式電動(dòng)汽車的部署壁壘》的報(bào)告,。在這份研究中,，我們將布賴斯·萊恩和尼爾·格羅斯1943年發(fā)明的“創(chuàng)新曲線”的概念引入了對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車采用率的研究,。根據(jù)萊恩和格羅斯的理論，創(chuàng)新者（約占社會(huì)總?cè)丝诘?.5%）是最樂(lè)于承擔(dān)采用創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的,，因?yàn)槟呐滤麄兪×?，他們手中的資源也耗得起不完善的新技術(shù)造成的損失。比如說(shuō)2008年前后第一批購(gòu)買特斯拉Roadster跑車的人,，以及第一批購(gòu)買Models和Model X的人,。當(dāng)年的特斯拉因?yàn)闅W翼式車門的問(wèn)題可是鬧出過(guò)不少波折的。

在創(chuàng)新曲線上排在第二位的是“早期采用者”,，約占社會(huì)總?cè)丝诘?3.5%,。他們對(duì)所采用的技術(shù)更加挑剔，同時(shí)他們也是英特爾這種科技公司的新技術(shù)的目標(biāo)用戶,，只要企業(yè)一再保證新技術(shù)的可靠性,，他們也是樂(lè)于嘗試的。他們對(duì)價(jià)格會(huì)更敏感一些,，不過(guò)仍有一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)容忍度,。在當(dāng)今社會(huì)，“早期采用者”也被稱為“影響者”,。目前的Model S車主和已經(jīng)交了Model 3定金的人,，都可以算作創(chuàng)新技術(shù)的“早期采用者”。

下一組是“早期多數(shù)使用者”,，約占總?cè)丝诘?4%,。這部分人需要被說(shuō)服才會(huì)采用新技術(shù)。不過(guò)只要他們發(fā)現(xiàn)新技術(shù)能夠造福他們的生活,，他們還是樂(lè)于采用的,。這些人也是伊隆·馬斯克和特斯拉最需要的客戶群。

考慮到在美國(guó)的購(gòu)車群體中,，每年購(gòu)買電動(dòng)汽車者只有1%左右,，可以說(shuō)電動(dòng)汽車技術(shù)本身仍然可以歸為“創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品”一類?；靹?dòng)汽車投放市場(chǎng)已有20年之久,，可是據(jù)汽車網(wǎng)站MotorIntelligence報(bào)道，2016年,，混動(dòng)汽車占新車銷售的份額仍然只有少得可憐的2.2%，較2013年的3.3%還有所下降,。另?yè)?jù)IHS Markit報(bào)道,，目前混動(dòng)和電動(dòng)汽車的銷量加起來(lái)，只占了全球新車銷量的3%左右,?；靹?dòng)汽車花了20年時(shí)間,，才勉強(qiáng)越過(guò)了“創(chuàng)新者”那2.5%。每個(gè)月有超過(guò)1600萬(wàn)名消費(fèi)者到凱利藍(lán)皮書上搜索新車信息,，然而其中只有3%的人研究過(guò)豪華電動(dòng)汽車,，考慮過(guò)混動(dòng)車的人更是只有2%。

除了大家對(duì)購(gòu)買電動(dòng)汽車普遍興致不高,，特斯拉要想吸引“早期多數(shù)使用者”的關(guān)注,，還面臨著其他一些挑戰(zhàn)。首先是Model 3的尺寸和體型,，Model 3大致可以歸入緊湊豪華車市場(chǎng),，大概就是寶馬3系和奧迪A4這一級(jí)別。Model 3是一款四門家轎,，并不是一款掀背車,。然而隨著消費(fèi)者對(duì)功能性的要求越來(lái)越高，目前銷量最火的卻是SUV,。Model 3雖然也有前后儲(chǔ)物廂,，但它的載貨能力和目前市場(chǎng)上最火的緊湊型SUV相比，顯然還是差了一大截,。

另一個(gè)壁壘則是特斯拉的抵稅配額快用完了,。美國(guó)從2009年開(kāi)始，給予了汽車廠商生產(chǎn)的前20萬(wàn)輛汽車每輛7,500美元的稅收抵免政策,。如果考慮到Model S和Model X的銷量,，再加上少量的Roadster，特斯拉的配額差不多已經(jīng)用了一半多了,。據(jù)估算,，到2018年末，消費(fèi)者在購(gòu)買特斯拉時(shí)就將無(wú)法享受到稅收優(yōu)惠,，而這時(shí)正是特斯拉需要沖銷量,、在創(chuàng)新曲線上再拱一拱的時(shí)候。雖然美國(guó)有些州針對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車頒布了一些利好政策,，然而同時(shí)這些州也留了一些后手,，有的要求收入達(dá)到一定水平者不得享受稅收優(yōu)惠，還有的對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車車主征收了更高的手續(xù)費(fèi),，相當(dāng)于變相征收了燃油稅,。這些都有可能對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的采用率造成影響，哪怕電動(dòng)汽車的電池成本越來(lái)越低,、路上的充電站越來(lái)越多了,。

當(dāng)然，汽車界也沒(méi)有光看特斯拉的熱鬧,。印度,、英國(guó),、法國(guó)和中國(guó)等國(guó)正在呼吁在2030年或2040年前將汽車全面電動(dòng)化。在這種大背景下,，無(wú)論是平價(jià)品牌還是豪華品牌,，在2020年前都會(huì)推出至少一款電動(dòng)車型，不管消費(fèi)者到底想不想買,。屆時(shí),，大多數(shù)電動(dòng)汽車都會(huì)達(dá)到300英里以上的續(xù)航里程，同時(shí)建成較為完善的經(jīng)銷商和維保服務(wù)網(wǎng)絡(luò),。在美國(guó),，通用汽車和日產(chǎn)公司可能到2018年左右就會(huì)用完減稅配額，不過(guò)隨著各大廠商與特斯拉在電動(dòng)車市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益激烈,，其他一些汽車公司也很可能會(huì)爭(zhēng)取到聯(lián)邦和各州的更多稅收優(yōu)惠,。

馬斯克給特斯拉的Model 3畫出了一條極富野心的產(chǎn)能曲線，很多人對(duì)此有所擔(dān)心也是正常的,，一家汽車工廠的大規(guī)模量產(chǎn)也不是件容易的事,。同時(shí)很多人對(duì)特斯拉的充電樁網(wǎng)絡(luò)、特許經(jīng)營(yíng)中面臨的法律問(wèn)題和車輛的維保問(wèn)題也表示擔(dān)心,。不過(guò)這些問(wèn)題有不少還在馬斯克的掌控之內(nèi),。而消費(fèi)者是否相信電動(dòng)汽車（尤其是特斯拉）比傳統(tǒng)汽車更適合他們的生活，這是馬斯克目前掌控不了的,，也是特斯拉走向主流所要面對(duì)的真正的挑戰(zhàn),。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者Rebecca Lindland是凱利藍(lán)皮書的一名高級(jí)分析師。

譯者：賈政景

With much fanfare and talk of going mainstream, Tesla recently unveiled its latest baby, the Model 3, with a base range of 220 miles and an accessible starting price of $35,000. The Model 3 sedan’s price is right in line with today’s average transaction price of $34,721 for a new car, according to my employer, Kelley Blue Book. But calling the Model 3 mainstream is a bit of a misnomer, given that the vehicle is, regardless of price, electric. In fact, the only thing mainstream about the Model 3 is the price.

As part of my work on the 2014 report, “Overcoming Barriers to Deployment of Plug-In Electric Vehicles,” for the National Research Council at the National Academies, we applied the innovation curve, as first created by Bryce Ryan and Neal Gross in 1943, to electric vehicle adoption. According to Ryan and Gross, innovators (2.5% of the population) are willing to take risks even if they fail, since they have the resources to withstand an imperfect technology; think Tesla Roadster buyers circa 2008 and first-in-line Model S owners, as well as Model X buyers, due to the falcon-wing doors.

Next on the curve are early adopters (13.5%), who are a bit choosier about the technology they adopt, and are seen as the go-to resource for intel on new tech, providing reassurances about its viability. They are more price sensitive, but still risk tolerant. In today’s world, early adopters are also known as influencers; I would argue these are current Model S owners and Model 3 deposit holders and soon-to-be buyers.

The next set is the early majority (34%). Early majority mindsets need convincing—they’re willing to embrace technology, as long as they understand how it fits into their lives. These are the people Elon Musk and Tesla needs most.

Given that only about 1% of all new car buyers purchase an electric vehicle every year in the U.S., the technology itself is still very much in the innovator class. Even hybrids, in the market for nearly 20 years now, accounted for just 2.2% of new car sales in 2016, down from a high of 3.3% in 2013, according to MotorIntelligence. In fact, IHS Markit reports that hybrid and electric vehicles combined for just 3% of new car sales globally, so it’s taken 20 years for hybrids to move beyond the “innovator” 2.5%. Over 16 million unique shoppers come to Kelley Blue Book every month to research cars. Only about 3% research luxury electric cars and only about 2% research hybrid vehicles.

Tesla faces other challenges to reaching the early majority in addition to the general disinterest in purchasing electric vehicles. One of those is the Model 3’s size and body style, which falls into the compact luxury sedan category, similar to the BMW 3-Series or Audi A4. The Model 3 is a four-door sedan, not even a hatch, in a world where SUV sales are booming as consumers demand more utility from their rides. While the Model 3 does have a front and rear trunk, it doesn’t have anywhere near the cargo capacity of a compact SUV so popular in today’s market.

Another barrier is the $7,500 federal tax credit currently available for buyers of the first 200,000 units a manufacturer sells in the U.S., which started in 2009. Sales of the Model S and Model X, with a few Roadsters thrown in, mopped up more than half of Tesla’s 200,000 unit allotment. By some estimates, Tesla shoppers will no longer be eligible for the tax credit starting in mid to late 2018, just when it needs some financial risk mitigation to move through the innovation curve. While some states are offering incentives, a new trend is for those states to not only apply a salary cap to eligibility for a tax credit, but impose fees on electric vehicle owners to make up for not paying taxes on fuel. This could further stifle adoption, even in the face of decreasing battery costs and increasing availability of charging stations.

The rest of the automotive world is not standing still either. In response to increasingly discordant regulations calling for the complete ban of internal combustion engine vehicles by India, U.K., France, and China by a seemingly arbitrary 2030 or 2040 deadline, nearly every luxury and non-luxury brand will have an electric vehicle in its stable by 2020, whether consumers want them or not. Most if not all will have a 300-plus mile range, along with a well-established dealer body for sales and services. GM and Nissan will probably lose their tax credit sometime around 2018, but many other companies will be able to sweeten the pot with state and federal credits, providing additional competition to Tesla just as the current backlog is fulfilled.

There’s a lot of well-justified angst over the highly aggressive production curve Musk outlined for Tesla for the Model 3, and ramping up a vehicle plant is no small feat. There’s also a lot of skepticism about its charging network, dealer franchise laws, and servicing the vehicles. But many—if not all—of these issues fall within the circle of Musk’s control. What falls outside that realm is the consumer’s willingness to accept the notion that an electric vehicle—and a Tesla in particular—fits into their lives better than an internal combustion engine does. That’s the real challenge to Tesla going mainstream.

Rebecca Lindland is an executive analyst at Kelley Blue Book.