本周一發(fā)布的官方數據顯示,，這個全球第三大經濟體今年4月到6月的年化增長率達到了4.0%,，大大超出人們的預期,，也是十年來日本經濟保持連續(xù)增長最長的一次。這次增幅是兩年多來的新高,，也是日本連續(xù)第六個季度實現增長,。與前一個季度相比，該季度經濟增長1.0%,，大大超出了0.6%的預期中值,。政府也略微上調了第一季度的估計年化增長率至1.5%。

這種態(tài)勢有望在接下來幾個季度里繼續(xù)保持,，這讓日本央行充滿希望：供不應求的勞動力市場終于得以提高工資,、促進消費支出。美好的數據也洗刷了首相安倍晉三的政府蒙受的冤屈,，后者之前一直遭到批評,，稱其經濟議程沒有采取足夠的措施來振興日本經濟。

瑞穗研究院的高級經濟學家德田秀信表示：“消費支出和資本支出這兩大引擎在第二季度都運轉良好,，這也是內需強勁的原因,。”

“增長的速率可能會略有下滑,，不過我們仍然處于恢復模式,。這是通脹帶來的積極發(fā)展?！?/p>

日本的發(fā)展很大程度上依賴于今年早些時候的強勁出口,，盡管也有跡象表明個人消費也有抬頭之勢。

在日本GDP中占據三分之二的個人消費比上一季度提高了0.9%,，高出了0.5%的預期中值,。隨著消費者大量購買汽車和家電等耐用品，這一增速也是三年多來之最,。數據顯示,，消費者在外出就餐上的花費也比以往更多。這些令人振奮的跡象都表明消費支出已不再是日本經濟前景中薄弱的一環(huán),。員工工資提高了0.7%,，也是去年第三季度以來增加最多的一次。企業(yè)投資額度也超出了預期,。

相比之下,，在4月至6月，外部需求使得GDP的增速減少了0.3%,，因為進口額有所增加,。這一點值得注意,，因為日本往往依賴出口來推動經濟增長,。

三菱日聯-摩根士丹利聯合證券的高級經濟師宮崎弘志表示：“經濟在沒有出口增長的情況下擁有如此大的漲幅,，證明我們的基礎很牢固?！?/p>

“消費增長在下個季度可能會稍微減速,，但是消費支出的恢復基礎已經建立起來了?！?/p>

日本經濟產業(yè)大臣茂木敏充對于內需的前景更加謹慎,，并表示會采取更多措施提振經濟。

他對記者表示：“如果你問我個人消費是否已經完全恢復,，我認為在一些領域它還不夠強勁,，需要政策繼續(xù)跟進?！?/p>

盡管日本經濟的增長遠超預期,，但日本央行短期內應該不會取消其大規(guī)模刺激項目，因為通脹幅度仍然很弱,。自從2013年4月采用量化寬松政策以來,，日本央行已經推遲了六次達到2%的目標通脹率的期限，其部分原因就在于疲軟的消費支出,。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

The world's third-largest economy expanded by a much stronger-than-expected annualized rate of 4.0 percent in April-June, posting its longest uninterrupted run of growth in a decade, official data showed Monday. That was the fastest growth in over two years, and the sixth straight quarter of expansion. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy expanded 1.0 percent, well above a median estimate of 0.6 percent. The government also slightly revised upwards its estimate of first-quarter growth to an annualised 1.5%.

Activity is expected to continue to improve in coming quarters, offering the Bank of Japan hope that a tight labor market is finally starting to boost wages and consumer spending. The rosy data were also a vindication for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, which has faced criticism that its economic agenda has not done enough to revive the country's fortunes.

“The engines of consumer spending and capital expenditure both fired well in the second quarter, and that's why domestic demand was so strong,” said Hidenobu Tokuda, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute.

"The pace of growth may moderate slightly, but we are still in recovery mode. This is a positive development for inflation."

Japan 's growth had been largely reliant on robust exports earlier in the year, though there were signs private consumption was picking up.

Private consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, rose 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, more than the median estimate of 0.5 percent growth. That marked the fastest expansion in more than three years as shoppers splashed out on durable goods such as cars and home appliances. Consumers also spent more money on dining out, the data showed. These are all encouraging signs that consumer spending is no longer the weak spot in Japan 's economic outlook. Employees' wages rose 0.7 percent, the biggest increase since the third quarter of last year. Corporate investment also outpaced expectations.

External demand, by contrast, subtracted 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth in April-June in part due to an increase in imports. This is notable because Japan usually relies on exports to drive growth.

"The fact that the economy was able to grow this much without gains in exports shows our fundamentals are solid," said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

"Consumption gains could slow a little in the following quarter, but the foundations for a recover in consumer spending are in place."

Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi was more cautious on the outlook for domestic demand and pledged to implement extra measures to strengthen the economy.

"If you ask me whether private consumption has fully recovered, I would say it still lacks strength in some areas, which will need to be followed with policy," Motegi told reporters.

While growth was faster than expected, it is not expected to nudge the Bank of Japan into dismantling its massive stimulus program any time soon, as inflation remains stubbornly weak. Since launching quantitative easing in April 2013, the BOJ has pushed back the timing for reaching its 2 percent inflation target six times, due in part to weak consumer spending.