我們對(duì)無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)的恐懼感正在逐漸增加,。美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)（AAA）2018年5月的調(diào)查顯示,，不信任這類(lèi)汽車(chē)的美國(guó)人的比例達(dá)到了驚人的73%，比2017年底的63%還有所提高,。

盡管該領(lǐng)域的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益升溫,，豐田（Toyota）、通用汽車(chē)（General Motors）,、Alphabet和特斯拉（Tesla）正在設(shè)立野心勃勃的目標(biāo)并押下重注,，但這個(gè)問(wèn)題依舊存在：美國(guó)人做好了接受無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)的準(zhǔn)備嗎？以后會(huì)有準(zhǔn)備好的那一天嗎,？

在研究了過(guò)去十年里復(fù)雜的機(jī)構(gòu)變革后,，我意識(shí)到了促使公眾產(chǎn)生行為變化，讓他們成功接受新技術(shù)的必要前提,。社會(huì)若要接納無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē),，需要在行為上出現(xiàn)巨大變化，尤其是現(xiàn)在公眾的信賴(lài)度還在持續(xù)降低,。不過(guò),，我們?nèi)缃癫恢С肿詣?dòng)駕駛，并不意味著我們將來(lái)也不會(huì)接受,。

以下是自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)的兩大前提：

必須贏得信任

任何新技術(shù)若要被人們接受,，與終端用戶(hù)建立信任是關(guān)鍵。就像羅馬不是一天建成的一樣,，信任也不是一夜就能建立的,。

幸運(yùn)的是,，對(duì)無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)而言，幾個(gè)培養(yǎng)用戶(hù)信任感的重要里程碑已然實(shí)現(xiàn),，尤其是我們對(duì)GPS的信任和Uber與Lyft等拼車(chē)服務(wù)的普及,。

打車(chē)的人學(xué)會(huì)了信任拼車(chē)服務(wù)，因?yàn)樗麄兊膿?dān)憂得到了環(huán)節(jié),。GPS功能確保了打車(chē)服務(wù)的成功率很高,，面對(duì)一個(gè)完全陌生的人，地址透明為打車(chē)者營(yíng)造了安全感,，而上車(chē)和下車(chē)點(diǎn)的改變也變得無(wú)縫,。換句話說(shuō)，在第一位用戶(hù)叫車(chē)之前,，Uber技術(shù)下潛藏的許多問(wèn)題就已經(jīng)得到了解決,。

對(duì)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)而言，情況也是如此,。就像爬梯子一樣,，無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)在最終得到應(yīng)用之前，還需要一步步取信于人,。沒(méi)有堅(jiān)實(shí)的信賴(lài)基礎(chǔ),，司機(jī)不會(huì)讓手離開(kāi)方向盤(pán)。

美國(guó)的汽車(chē)消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)學(xué)會(huì)了信任技術(shù),，例如泊車(chē)輔助系統(tǒng),、車(chē)道偏離警示和盲點(diǎn)探測(cè)，這一切都協(xié)助司機(jī)與汽車(chē)建立了新的關(guān)系,。我們幾乎沒(méi)人意識(shí)到,，汽車(chē)廠商已經(jīng)通過(guò)一項(xiàng)項(xiàng)實(shí)用技術(shù)，讓我們漸漸放開(kāi)方向盤(pán)了,。

盡管如此,，如果對(duì)底層技術(shù)的安全性和可靠性仍然存有恐懼，消費(fèi)者就很難對(duì)無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)感到放心,。為了增長(zhǎng)信心,，消費(fèi)者需要看到一小群投入的早期用戶(hù)證明技術(shù)的實(shí)用性和安全性，并將此告知大眾,。

盡管在無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)領(lǐng)域,，技術(shù)創(chuàng)新者是第一批先驅(qū)，對(duì)這項(xiàng)尖端技術(shù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也更具接受度,，但這些早期采用者對(duì)于投資何種新技術(shù)也更精挑細(xì)選,。有關(guān)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)安全性的不斷的負(fù)面新聞可能會(huì)讓他們敬而遠(yuǎn)之——而按照埃弗雷特·羅杰斯的模型，早期采用者群體對(duì)于建立必要的交流網(wǎng)絡(luò)，在社會(huì)中更廣泛地推廣創(chuàng)新至關(guān)重要,。

一場(chǎng)完美的風(fēng)暴

如今，每月使用Uber的用戶(hù)達(dá)到了7,500萬(wàn)人,。是什么導(dǎo)致了它被廣泛采用,？這是有意而為，還是因緣巧合,？

答案是兩者多少都有一點(diǎn),。Uber并未獨(dú)力促成導(dǎo)致該技術(shù)蓬勃發(fā)展的行為變化。它進(jìn)入了大眾運(yùn)輸開(kāi)始力不從心,、城市化進(jìn)程加快,、公共交通的需求急劇增加的市場(chǎng)。這一系列事件引發(fā)的風(fēng)暴成為了推動(dòng)公司沖向成功的力量,。

盡管通過(guò)技術(shù)解決問(wèn)題,，在如今已被視為尋常，但自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)若要走進(jìn)現(xiàn)實(shí),，我們就需要同樣的完美風(fēng)暴,。人們對(duì)時(shí)間的需求增加、日常生活的進(jìn)一步自動(dòng)化,、司機(jī)輔助技術(shù)的進(jìn)步和不斷的城市化,，會(huì)導(dǎo)致無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)的登場(chǎng)變得更加迫切，推動(dòng)司機(jī)開(kāi)始接受新行為,。

不過(guò)首先,，業(yè)內(nèi)的領(lǐng)袖必須了解消費(fèi)者接受自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)的過(guò)程：信任技術(shù)，有信心使用它,，社會(huì)和環(huán)境也在共同施加壓力,。這些因素必須結(jié)合起來(lái)，才能推動(dòng)大規(guī)模的行為變化,，這是無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)成為主流所必需的,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

注：作者埃里克·埃利斯是領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力和戰(zhàn)略加速公司Kotter的負(fù)責(zé)人。

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

We’re growing more afraid of self-driving vehicles. A whopping 73% of Americans don’t trust autonomous cars, up from 63% in late 2017, according to a AAA survey released in May 2018.

While competition is heating up—with players like Toyota, General Motors, Alphabet, and Tesla setting ambitious goals and making big bets—the question remains: Are Americans ready for driverless cars? Will we ever be?

As I’ve studied complex organizational transformations over the past decade, I’ve come to recognize what must happen to create the behavioral change that makes adoption of new technologies successful. A societal shift toward self-driving vehicles will require such massive behavioral change, especially as trust continues to plummet. But just because we wouldn’t get behind that self-turning wheel today, doesn’t mean we wouldn’t take that chance tomorrow.

Here are two things that need to happen to make self-driving cars a reality:

Trust must be earned

With the adoption of any new technology, establishing trust with end users is table stakes. And just as Rome wasn’t built in a day, trust isn’t established overnight.

Luckily for self-driving cars, several important milestones have already been reached on the road to fostering consumer trust in autonomous vehicles—notably, our reliance on GPS and the growing use of ride services like Uber and Lyft.

Riders learned to trust ride services because fears were mitigated. GPS functions ensured a high rate of ride success; transparency of location created a sense of safety for riders in the presence of a complete stranger; and changes in pickup and dropoff locations were seamless. In other words, many of the questions underlying Uber’s technology had been answered before the first rider hailed a car.

The same story holds true for self-driving cars. Like climbing a ladder, driverless technology will have to be proven to people step by step before the ultimate rollout. Drivers aren’t going to take their hands off the wheel without a solid foundation of trust.

American automobile consumers have already learned to trust technology such as vehicle backup cameras, lane departure assists, and blind spot detection, all of which assist with building a new relationship between car and driver. Few of us realize that automobile manufacturers have been prying our hands from the steering wheel one useful piece of technology at a time.

Still, it will be difficult to make consumers comfortable with autonomous vehicles if lingering fears remain about the safety and reliability of the underlying technology. In order to have confidence, consumers need to see a small group of engaged, early adopters demonstrate the technology’s usefulness and safety, and communicate it to the masses.

While technology innovators, who have been first movers when it comes to autonomous vehicles, are typically more comfortable with the risks associated with cutting-edge technology, these early adopters are selective about which new technologies they invest in. Continued negative news about the safety of self-driving cars might keep them away—and this early adopter pool, according to Everett Rogers’s model, is essential for building the communication networks necessary to roll out innovations more broadly throughout society.

A perfect storm

Seventy-five million people now use Uber each month. What enabled this widespread adoption? Was it driven by intention—or chance?

The answer is: a little bit of both. Uber didn’t single-handedly enable the behavioral change that allowed its technology to take off. It entered the market when mass transit was already beginning to fail, urbanization was increasing, and demand for public transit was through the roof. It was this perfect storm of events that fueled the company’s success.

While the tech-enablement of any task is now accepted as par for the course, for self-driving cars to truly become a reality, we’ll need that same kind of perfect storm. Increasing demands on people’s time, greater automation of everyday life, advancements in driver-assistive technologies, and continued urbanization will create the urgency needed for the rollout of driverless technology and adoption of new driver behaviors.

But first, leaders in the field must understand the process through which consumers might embrace self-driving cars: trust in the technology, confidence in its use, and the convergence of societal and environmental pressures. All of these factors must come together to drive the large-scale behavior change necessary for driverless cars to go mainstream.

Eric Ellis is a principal at Kotter, a leadership and strategy acceleration firm.