如果你相信“希望你生活在有意思的時(shí)代”這句話是個(gè)詛咒，那你可得當(dāng)心了,。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在10月2日稱,，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正處在“歷史上難得一見的穩(wěn)定低通脹和極低失業(yè)率并存的時(shí)期，這充分說(shuō)明我們?nèi)匀惶幱诜浅r(shí)期?！?/p>

鮑威爾在美國(guó)全國(guó)商業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家協(xié)會(huì)于波士頓舉辦的會(huì)議上解釋了當(dāng)前數(shù)據(jù)的形成原因,，其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為低于4%的失業(yè)率和將近2%的通脹率共存的罕見情形還將持續(xù)兩三年。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直致力于將失業(yè)率維持在略低于4.5%,，將通脹率維持在略低于2%的水平,。這是個(gè)微妙的平衡：如果失業(yè)率低到一定程度，工資會(huì)上漲,，從而導(dǎo)致通脹,。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)使用的一項(xiàng)工具是調(diào)節(jié)美國(guó)政府債券的利率。利率越高,，銀行進(jìn)行借款的費(fèi)用就越高,，當(dāng)銀行把這些花費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)移到企業(yè)和個(gè)人借貸者身上時(shí)，就充當(dāng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)總剎車的角色,。

鮑威爾在今年2月從珍妮特·耶倫的手中接過(guò)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席一職,，當(dāng)時(shí)許多人都評(píng)論稱，他延續(xù)了“建立共識(shí)”的風(fēng)格,。耶倫掌管時(shí),，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)于去年逐步加息，鮑威爾接管后,，采用了同樣的做法,。

有批評(píng)者提出，失業(yè)率和通脹之間的實(shí)際健康比率可能并非如此,。鮑威爾在演講中表達(dá)了對(duì)所謂菲利普斯曲線的支持,，菲利普斯曲線描述了失業(yè)率和通脹率之間的關(guān)系，但又說(shuō)曲線的形狀可能會(huì)因?yàn)樽匀怀浞志蜆I(yè)率的改變而發(fā)生變化,。他還指出,，9月末聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)會(huì)后，一名記者問(wèn)他當(dāng)前的環(huán)境是不是“好到不真實(shí)”了——他說(shuō)這是個(gè)合情合理的問(wèn)題,。

鮑威爾還指出,，最近聯(lián)邦減稅和增加開支的做法會(huì)導(dǎo)致政府在出現(xiàn)下次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)沒(méi)有什么回旋余地。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)控制不了這些,。

“我們現(xiàn)在正處于一個(gè)周期的頂點(diǎn),，”鮑威爾說(shuō)，“而且是時(shí)候整理一下我們的財(cái)政機(jī)構(gòu)了,?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

If you believe the legend that “may you live in interesting times” is a curse, hold onto your hat.

On October 2nd, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy’s “historically rare pairing of steady, low inflation and very low unemployment is testament to the fact that we remain in extraordinary times.”

Speaking at a meeting of the National Association of Business Economists in Boston, Powell explained why and other economists have concluded that the rare combination of sub-4% unemployment and near-2% inflation might last another couple of years.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has historically sought to keep unemployment below about 4.5% and inflation near 2%. It’s a delicate balance: when unemployment drops low enough, wages tend to rise, which can cause inflation. One of the Fed’s tools is setting the interest rates it pays for U.S. government bonds. The higher those rates, the costlier it becomes for banks to borrow and they pass those costs to commercial and private borrowers, acting as a general brake on the economy.

Powell took over the chair from Janet Yellen in February in what many commentators called a continuation of a consensus-building style. The Fed raised rates little by little last year under Yellen and has continued to do so under Powell.

Some critics have raised the possibility that the actual healthy ratio between unemployment and inflation is different. In his speech, Powell defended the so-called Phillips curve, which describes that ratio, but said that it was possible that the shape of the curve could change as the natural full employment rate changed. He also noted that after the late September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, a reporter asked him if the current environment was “too good to be true”—a query he called “a reasonable question.”

Powell also noted that the recent federal tax cuts and spending boosts will leave the government less maneuvering room whenever the next recession hits. The Fed does not control those.

“This is the top of the cycle,” Powell said, “and it’s a good time to be working on putting our fiscal house in order.”