油價(jià)上漲的原因是交易商在評(píng)估沙特的威脅——作為全球最大的石油出口國(guó),，沙特表示如果因?yàn)檎u(píng)人士失蹤而受到制裁,，將采取報(bào)復(fù)措施,。

交易商將沙特外交部的聲明視為其可能把石油供應(yīng)作為政治武器的警告，受此影響,，紐約時(shí)段原油期貨價(jià)格一度上漲1.9%,。但油價(jià)隨后回吐之前漲幅,，原因是人們懷疑作為石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）最強(qiáng)大的成員,，沙特是否會(huì)采取這樣的極端方式,。

美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普已表示，如果沙特和記者賈馬爾·哈蘇吉的失蹤有關(guān),，將對(duì)其實(shí)施“嚴(yán)厲懲罰”,。倘若沙特真以石油資源進(jìn)行反擊,，就將放棄幾十年來(lái)奉行的原油高于政治的原則。在最近和加拿大的外交口水戰(zhàn)中,，盡管沙特切斷了兩國(guó)的大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系,，但沙特國(guó)有石油公司沙特阿美仍在向一家加拿大煉油廠(chǎng)提供石油,。

瑞銀集團(tuán)駐蘇黎世分析師吉奧瓦尼·斯陶諾沃認(rèn)為：“市場(chǎng)將體現(xiàn)出一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià),。雖然近年來(lái)沙特一直沒(méi)有將石油用于政治,，但和特朗普總統(tǒng)一樣,，沙特王儲(chǔ)也不是普通政治人物，還不清楚今后他將作何反應(yīng),。但如果沙特的原油出口保持不變，這樣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)將再次消失,?！?/p>

由于需求前景變差,，加之全球股市暴跌,，促使投資者規(guī)避大宗商品等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn),，本月初創(chuàng)下四年新高后油價(jià)已回落6%以上,。不過(guò),，由于美國(guó)的制裁將限制伊朗的石油出口，交易商仍懷疑OPEC及其伙伴能否彌補(bǔ)伊朗的潛在供應(yīng)損失,。

在紐約商品交易所,，11月交割的西德州中質(zhì)原油期貨一度上漲1.36美元,，報(bào)每桶72.70美元,，倫敦時(shí)間本周一上午10:16的價(jià)格為71.54美元,。上周其價(jià)格下跌4%,，降至71.34美元。本周一的總成交量超過(guò)百日均線(xiàn)18%左右,。

在倫敦ICE歐洲期貨交易所,，12月交割的布倫特原油期貨最高漲幅達(dá)到1.49美元，或1.9%,，報(bào)每桶81.92美元,。上周該期貨下滑4.4%，降至80.43美元,，創(chuàng)4月初以來(lái)的最大單周跌幅,。同月交割的全球基準(zhǔn)原油期貨價(jià)格比西德州中質(zhì)原油高9.53美元。

哈蘇吉10月2日進(jìn)入沙特駐伊斯坦布爾領(lǐng)事館后失蹤,。美國(guó)政府越發(fā)認(rèn)為沙特否認(rèn)與此有任何關(guān)系的說(shuō)法站不住腳,。《華盛頓郵報(bào)》報(bào)道,，土耳其官員表示,，他們掌握的錄音錄像顯示沙特安全部隊(duì)小組控制了哈蘇吉,，隨后將其殺害并肢解了他的尸體。

作為OPEC的最大產(chǎn)油國(guó),，沙特的作用已經(jīng)變得更為關(guān)鍵，市場(chǎng)正在等待該組織主要成員彌補(bǔ)伊朗,、委內(nèi)瑞拉等國(guó)的生產(chǎn)缺口,。1973-1974年沙特帶頭進(jìn)行石油禁運(yùn)時(shí)確實(shí)將原油當(dāng)作武器，這次的威脅則讓沙特和美國(guó)的親密關(guān)系出現(xiàn)了意外轉(zhuǎn)折,。

雖然特朗普不愿取消數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元的沙特軍售項(xiàng)目，因?yàn)閾?dān)心此舉會(huì)讓這位盟友轉(zhuǎn)投俄羅斯或中國(guó),，但美國(guó)政府正在討論其他懲罰措施,，包括降低外交等級(jí)和制裁沙特官員,。

沙特國(guó)有媒體阿拉伯電視臺(tái)負(fù)責(zé)人圖爾基·阿爾達(dá)克希爾發(fā)表文章稱(chēng),，美國(guó)制裁沙特可能使油價(jià)突破每桶200美元,，從而給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)巨大災(zāi)難,。沙特駐華盛頓大使館高級(jí)顧問(wèn)費(fèi)薩爾·本·法爾漢則在推特上表示,，這些話(huà)不代表沙特政府的態(tài)度,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Oil rose as traders assessed a threat by Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, to retaliate against any punishment over the disappearance of a government critic.

Futures climbed as much as 1.9% in New York as traders viewed the Saudi Foreign Ministry statement as a warning that the kingdom could use oil supplies as a political weapon. Yet gains later eased amid doubts that OPEC’s most powerful member would take such an extreme course.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised “ severe punishment” should Saudi Arabia be linked to the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. If the Saudis do use their crude resources to hit back, it would be a break from their decades-old policy of putting petroleum above politics. During a recent diplomatic spat with Canada, state-owned producer Aramco continued to supply a refinery there even though Riyadh severed most other economic links.

“The market will price in some risk premium,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “While Saudi Arabia hasn’t used politics in recent years, its crown prince — like President Trump — isn’t an ordinary politician and it’s unclear how he’ll react going forward. But if Saudi crude exports remain unchanged, this risk premium will disappear again.”

Crude has retreated more than 6% after reaching a four-year high earlier this month as a darkening demand outlook, coupled with global stock-market routs, spur investors to shun risky assets including commodities. Still, traders continue to speculate whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners can offset potential supply losses from Iran as U.S. sanctions are set to curb oil exports from the Persian Gulf state.

West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose as much as $1.36 to $72.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $71.54 as of 10:16 a.m. London time. The contract slid 4% to $71.34 last week. Total volume traded Monday was about 18% above the 100-day average.

Brent for December settlement climbed as much as $1.49, or 1.9%, to $81.92 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices declined 4.4% to $80.43 last week, the biggest weekly drop since early April. The global benchmark crude traded at a $9.53 premium to WTI for the same month.

Khashoggi hasn’t been seen since entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. The U.S. administration is said to increasingly regard the kingdom’s denial of any involvement in his disappearance as untenable. Turkish officials say they have audio and video recordings showing a Saudi security team detained the journalist before killing him and dismembering his body, according to the Washington Post.

As OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia has taken on an even more crucial role as the market awaits moves from key producers to make up for lost barrels from Iran to Venezuela. Although the kingdom did use energy as a weapon when it led an oil embargo in 1973-1974, its current threats mark a surprising turn in an otherwise warm relationship with the U.S.

While Trump is reluctant to cancel multimillion-dollar arms sales to Saudi Arabia out of concern its ally will turn to Russia or China instead, a range of other punishments are under discussion within the administration, including downgrading diplomatic relations and sanctioning Saudi officials.

Turki Al Dakhil, who heads the Saudi state-owned Arabiya news network, wrote in an article that U.S. sanctions against Saudi Arabia could wreak havoc on the global economy by taking oil prices beyond $200 a barrel. Faisal bin Farhan, a senior adviser to the Saudi embassy in Washington, said on Twitter that those comments don’t represent the Saudi leadership.