對(duì)于2019年的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)來說,，好消息在于,，美國(guó)依然不大可能進(jìn)入衰退期。然而壞消息在于,，很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)中指出,，美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將有所放緩,，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)亦是如此。

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在2018年可謂是收獲頗豐,。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)字顯示,，美國(guó)的GDP在第三季度達(dá)到了3.5%的年增幅，第二季度達(dá)到了4.2%,。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局指出,，隨著消費(fèi)支出的增加，各大公司補(bǔ)充庫(kù)存,，以及各地政府繼續(xù)維持其支出,，美國(guó)大多數(shù)行業(yè)均呈現(xiàn)出欣欣向榮的景象。

然而當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家為其2019年預(yù)測(cè)而研究各種數(shù)據(jù)時(shí),，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將放緩,。高盛集團(tuán)在本周便吸引了不少目光，因?yàn)樗A(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)GDP增速將在2019年第三季度降至1.8%,，在第四季度降至1.6%,。高盛預(yù)測(cè)，2017年年底通過的稅收削減政策所帶來的影響將逐漸消失,，而財(cái)務(wù)狀況將趨緊,。

這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)其實(shí)并不算喜人，也不算悲觀,，但卻引發(fā)了特朗普政府國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)委員會(huì)主席拉里·庫(kù)德羅的反駁,。庫(kù)德羅說：“在我和特朗普政府看來，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退離我們還很遙遠(yuǎn),，遠(yuǎn)得我們都看不到,。經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面已再度復(fù)蘇，而且將繼續(xù)維持在這一水平……我的意思是,，我也看到了一些最為怪誕的觀點(diǎn)，說什么經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退近在眼前,。純屬胡扯,。”

一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的看法比高盛更加悲觀,，而且高盛并未預(yù)測(cè)在2020年前會(huì)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。路透社的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在本周所做的調(diào)查顯示，大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為美國(guó)進(jìn)入衰退的概率依然很低,，約為35%,，但該調(diào)查也顯示，出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的概率中值較上個(gè)月略有上升,。上周,，哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,、克林頓政府時(shí)期的財(cái)務(wù)部部長(zhǎng)拉里·薩默斯稱，2020年前出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的概率接近50%,。

人們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行出現(xiàn)的時(shí)間點(diǎn)可能仍存在爭(zhēng)議,，但很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)所面臨的逆風(fēng)正逐漸增強(qiáng),，而且不利因素也越來越多：不斷上漲的利率推高了消費(fèi)者和公司的借貸成本,；貿(mào)易關(guān)稅在不斷增長(zhǎng)，很大一部分歸功于特朗普激進(jìn)的貿(mào)易政策,；而且華爾街分析師也越來越擔(dān)心,，隨著股票牛市進(jìn)入第十個(gè)年頭，收益增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)見頂,，股價(jià)過高的科技領(lǐng)域尤為如此,。

除了上述不利因素之外，人們預(yù)計(jì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)也將放緩,。上周三,，經(jīng)合組織將其全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)測(cè)從此前的3.7%調(diào)低至3.5%。經(jīng)合組織稱,，“最近的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)顯示,，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的擴(kuò)張已經(jīng)見頂，而且有可能在未來兩年內(nèi)放緩,?！?/p>

此外，美銀美林所開展的基金經(jīng)理調(diào)查顯示,，44%的受調(diào)對(duì)象預(yù)計(jì)2019年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將放緩,。潘森宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)師伊萬·謝潑德森在給客戶的紀(jì)要中寫道，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速在2020年年初可能降為零,。謝潑德森說：“我們不可能總是逆水行舟,。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

The good economic news for 2019 is that the odds are still against the U.S. economy entering a recession. The bad news, according to many economists, is a series of economic forecasts that calls for growth to not only be slower in the U.S., but also globally.

2018 has been a banner year for economic growth, with the U.S. gross domestic product rising at an annual pace of 3.5% in the third quarter and at 4.2% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Statistics. The economy has been firing on most of its cylinders, as consumers spent more, companies invested in inventories, and local governments maintained their spending, the BEA said.

As economists crunch the numbers for their 2019 forecasts, however, they are expecting a slowdown. Goldman drew some attention this week after it said U.S. GDP growth will slow to 1.8% in the third quarter of 2019 and to 1.6% during the fourth quarter. The positive impact of the tax cuts passed in late 2017 will fade while financial conditions will tighten, Goldman predicted.

That forecast, not exactly sunny but not dire either, prompted some pushback from Larry Kudlow, who is serving as president of the National Economic Council under President Trump. “In my personal view, our administration’s view, recession is so far in the distance I can’t see it,” Kudlow said. “The basic economy has reawakened and it’s gonna stay there… I mean, I’m reading some of the weirdest stuff, how a recession is around the corner. Nonsense.”

Some economists are taking a darker view than Goldman, which is not forecasting a recession before 2020. A survey of economists by Reuters this week shows that most expect the chance of a recession in the U.S. is still low, at 35%, although the survey also showed that the median probability of a recession has inched up from 30% in the past month. Last week, Larry Summers, a Harvard economist and former treasury secretary during the Clinton Administration, said there’s a nearly 50% chance of recession by 2020.

The timing of a downturn may be in dispute, but many economists agree that the headwinds facing the U.S. economy are growing stronger and more numerous: Interest rates keep rising, making borrowing costs more expensive for consumers and companies alike; trade tariffs are increasing, thanks in good part to Trump’s aggressive trade policies; and Wall Street analysts are growing concerned that earnings growth has peaked as the bull market enters its tenth year, especially in the overpriced tech sector.

Adding to those U.S. headwinds is an anticipated slowdown in the global economy. On last Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 3.5% from its previous forecast of 3.7% growth. “Recent developments suggest that the global expansion has peaked and is likely to slow over the next two years,” the OECD said.

Separately, a survey of fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch showed that 44% of respondents expect global growth to slow in 2019. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients that global growth could be zero in early 2020. “Gravity can’t be defied forever,” Shepherdson said.