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印度智庫(kù):印度農(nóng)村地區(qū)是移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的下一個(gè)藍(lán)海

印度智庫(kù):印度農(nóng)村地區(qū)是移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的下一個(gè)藍(lán)海

Vivienne Walt 2019-02-25
印度正在發(fā)生數(shù)字化革命,。即便是在偏遠(yuǎn)農(nóng)村,也有成千上萬(wàn)的人拿著剛買(mǎi)不久的智能手機(jī),,有生以來(lái)第一次登上了互聯(lián)網(wǎng),。

2018年12月10日,,印度政府智庫(kù)印度國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)型研究所所長(zhǎng)阿米塔布·康特在其新德里的辦公室內(nèi),。圖片來(lái)源:Photograph by Vivek Singh for Fortune

去年12月,為了給本月的《財(cái)富》雜志撰寫(xiě)一篇關(guān)于谷歌的報(bào)道,,我去了印度的幾個(gè)地方,。到了印度,你很難忽視這里正在飛速發(fā)生的數(shù)字化革命,。即便是在偏遠(yuǎn)農(nóng)村,,也有成千上萬(wàn)的人拿著剛買(mǎi)不久的智能手機(jī),有生以來(lái)第一次登上了互聯(lián)網(wǎng),。

印度的數(shù)字革命必將帶來(lái)極其深遠(yuǎn)的影響——這種影響不僅僅在于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)給印度社會(huì)帶來(lái)的劇烈變化,,同時(shí),它也將對(duì)整個(gè)科技行業(yè)產(chǎn)生巨大影響,。印度是一個(gè)擁有13億多人口的國(guó)家,,其人口三倍于美國(guó),如此龐大的市場(chǎng),,必定會(huì)為谷歌等科技巨頭帶來(lái)難得的擴(kuò)張機(jī)遇,。

就目前而言,對(duì)于在印度角力的大玩家們,,賺錢(qián)并不是最主要的,,而是要找到下一個(gè)10億級(jí)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶(hù)群——而其中的大部分就在印度。當(dāng)然,,外國(guó)科技公司進(jìn)軍印度的阻礙也有不少,,其中也包括政治上的障礙。即將于今年4月面臨艱難選戰(zhàn)的印度總理莫迪已經(jīng)表示,,要堅(jiān)決保護(hù)印度的本土科技公司,,不能讓它們被谷歌、沃爾瑪和中國(guó)的騰訊,、阿里巴巴等外國(guó)巨頭所吞并,。

在新德里,我采訪(fǎng)了印度國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)型研究所的所長(zhǎng)阿米塔布·康特,。印度國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)型研究所主要負(fù)責(zé)制定全國(guó)的數(shù)字化戰(zhàn)略,。在采訪(fǎng)中,康特談到了對(duì)于印度以及對(duì)于谷歌等美國(guó)科技巨頭來(lái)說(shuō),,當(dāng)前重點(diǎn)要做好哪些事情,。

《財(cái)富》:數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型對(duì)印度經(jīng)濟(jì)為何如此重要?

康特:未來(lái)30年,,如果我們想保持9%或者10%的年增長(zhǎng)率,,我們不僅需要實(shí)物的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,,也需要數(shù)字化的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。我們還需要在教育,、衛(wèi)生等領(lǐng)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)巨大突破,。只有數(shù)字化技術(shù)才能助推印度實(shí)現(xiàn)巨大增長(zhǎng),這就要求我們必須構(gòu)建數(shù)字化基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施作為支撐,。

印度已經(jīng)建立了超過(guò)10億人的生物樣本庫(kù),,印度還擁有10億多部移動(dòng)設(shè)備、10億多個(gè)銀行賬戶(hù),。利用移動(dòng)系統(tǒng)和這個(gè)龐大的生物樣本庫(kù),,印度政府可以將福利撥款直接打入受益人的銀行賬戶(hù)。現(xiàn)在我們的數(shù)字支付都是基于移動(dòng)的,,我們已經(jīng)有128家聯(lián)網(wǎng)銀行,,他們都可以通過(guò)移動(dòng)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行數(shù)字支付。

這就是印度為什么要廢除紙幣,。(注:2016年,莫迪廢除了大部分流通中的紙幣,。)

是的,,它推動(dòng)了數(shù)字支付的極限。我們不像美國(guó)和中國(guó),。在美國(guó),,所有數(shù)據(jù)都?xì)w谷歌和Facebook所有;在中國(guó),,所有數(shù)據(jù)都?xì)w阿里,、騰訊和百度所有。在印度,,數(shù)據(jù)歸公共實(shí)體所有,。比如說(shuō)每個(gè)印度人都有跟“阿達(dá)哈爾”(即印度的12位數(shù)字身份證)綁定的生物特征。印度的消費(fèi)稅也可以通過(guò)數(shù)字支付繳納,。居民的生物特征數(shù)據(jù)僅歸公共實(shí)體所有,,而印度目前有99.6%的人都在網(wǎng)上納稅。

目前有多少人交稅,?

消費(fèi)稅的正規(guī)化將使納稅變得更正式,,目前的規(guī)模已經(jīng)相當(dāng)可觀(guān)了。(注:據(jù)估計(jì)只有不到10%的印度人交稅,。)我們的所有新方案都是完全數(shù)字化的,。我們正在為5億人提供醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn),這個(gè)數(shù)字比美國(guó)和墨西哥的人口總和還要多,。而且它也是無(wú)現(xiàn)金式的,,全部采用數(shù)字化技術(shù),。數(shù)字化已經(jīng)應(yīng)用到了方方面面,大多數(shù)印度人通過(guò)智能手機(jī)就能享受這些計(jì)劃,。

說(shuō)說(shuō)你們?cè)谌绾问褂媚銈兘⒌?0億多人口的生物識(shí)別庫(kù),。

我們希望做到以數(shù)字化手段教育人,以數(shù)字化手段傳播健康,,并利用這些海量數(shù)據(jù)更好地進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析,,更好地創(chuàng)新,并幫助創(chuàng)業(yè)公司,。這樣我們才能確保人民得到最好的教育,、最好的醫(yī)療。我們也可以橫向和縱向地追蹤每一個(gè)兒童的情況,,然后對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析,,以得出最好的結(jié)果,就像我們跟蹤網(wǎng)約車(chē)的動(dòng)向一樣,。我們也可以通過(guò)大量數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)跟蹤個(gè)人的健康狀況,。這些只有通過(guò)數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型才能實(shí)現(xiàn),而非實(shí)體轉(zhuǎn)型,。

由于智能手機(jī)的使用,,銀行交易的成本大大下降了。過(guò)去銀行交易需要很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間,。生物識(shí)別技術(shù)使得身份認(rèn)證變得容易,。印度以前是非常低效的,現(xiàn)在政府可以將資金直接轉(zhuǎn)入所有受益人的賬戶(hù),。

我們認(rèn)為,,在農(nóng)村地區(qū),衛(wèi)生和教育將越來(lái)越多地通過(guò)數(shù)字化網(wǎng)絡(luò)向居民提供,。我們最關(guān)注的挑戰(zhàn),,就是建立堅(jiān)實(shí)的寬帶網(wǎng)絡(luò)。我們首先是要建設(shè)光纖網(wǎng)絡(luò),,其次是確保每個(gè)人都有手機(jī),,尤其是智能手機(jī)。在印度,,智能手機(jī)的成本已經(jīng)下降了,。

由于一批新公司的加入,使得智能手機(jī)的價(jià)格顯著下降,。目前在印度生產(chǎn)手機(jī)的企業(yè)大約有128家,。他們降低了手機(jī)的生產(chǎn)成本。這有利于手機(jī)的推廣和數(shù)字化革命在印度的傳播,。

實(shí)物基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)對(duì)印度這樣一個(gè)國(guó)家顯然也是很重要的,,你為什么認(rèn)為數(shù)字基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)更重要,?

如果你想在各地建實(shí)體銀行,讓真正的銀行經(jīng)理去管理,,印度得花上幾百年的時(shí)間,。如果你想建實(shí)體學(xué)校,也得花幾百年的時(shí)間,。唯一在能讓印度在技術(shù)上實(shí)現(xiàn)跨越的方法,,就是使用數(shù)字化技術(shù)。現(xiàn)在,,即便不通過(guò)大型學(xué)校和書(shū)本,,只通過(guò)智能手機(jī),也能教育孩子,。比如印度比哈爾邦有一個(gè)叫作班卡的落后地區(qū),,那里所有的教育都是通過(guò)移動(dòng)電話(huà)完成的。

我們?cè)诎驳吕畈稍L(fǎng)時(shí),,我去了一些村子,,我感覺(jué)要讓人們真正理解如何正確使用智能手機(jī),可能還需要很多年,。但你說(shuō)的是15年,。

從我們的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看,有些在我們看來(lái)對(duì)數(shù)字化技術(shù)一竅不通的人,,實(shí)際上學(xué)習(xí)使用手機(jī)的速度要比我們想象的快得多。印度農(nóng)村地區(qū)是很擅長(zhǎng)學(xué)習(xí)使用手機(jī)的,,因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在印度人人都在用手機(jī),。目前印度的智能手機(jī)用戶(hù)已達(dá)4.5億,其他人則使用功能手機(jī),。而從功能手機(jī)到智能手機(jī)的轉(zhuǎn)變將發(fā)生得非常迅速,。印度的規(guī)模也將使成本進(jìn)一步下降。

數(shù)據(jù)本地化對(duì)于科技公司來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)非常熱門(mén)的問(wèn)題?,F(xiàn)在谷歌等大型科技公司也儲(chǔ)存了不少他們?cè)谟《仁占臄?shù)據(jù),。你認(rèn)為這個(gè)問(wèn)題對(duì)印度有多重要?

這對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)也是一個(gè)重要的問(wèn)題,。目前印度就此還沒(méi)有最終政策,,但印度政府已經(jīng)任命了一個(gè)委員會(huì),委員會(huì)已經(jīng)出具了一份報(bào)告,,印度信息技術(shù)部正在對(duì)其進(jìn)行審查,。在我看來(lái),重要數(shù)據(jù)(比如與健康有關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù))必須本地化,,印度是有能力處理這些數(shù)據(jù)的,,印度是一個(gè)IT實(shí)力很強(qiáng)的國(guó)家,,印度人的數(shù)據(jù)必須留在印度。這是我們的看法,。

外國(guó)投資者是否將印度看作一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期市場(chǎng),?現(xiàn)在他們已經(jīng)投入了幾十億的投資,最終他們能賺回來(lái)嗎,?

很多公司在印度的投資都是長(zhǎng)期而非短期的,。像谷歌這樣的公司會(huì)長(zhǎng)期投資印度,而且他們也會(huì)在數(shù)字化方面為印度做很多好事,。我相信過(guò)了一段時(shí)間之后,,他們會(huì)在印度發(fā)展得非常好。印度市場(chǎng)正在不斷擴(kuò)大,。谷歌面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn)是如何以印度本土語(yǔ)言進(jìn)行傳播,。印度大概有3.5億人的英語(yǔ)市場(chǎng),其他人都說(shuō)本地語(yǔ)言,。對(duì)于Facebook,、推特、谷歌等科技公司,,他們的一大挑戰(zhàn)就是如何融入本地語(yǔ)言,,尤其是印地語(yǔ)。

印度以前的營(yíng)商環(huán)境很復(fù)雜,,過(guò)去投資者的日子不太好過(guò),。但是在過(guò)去四年間,政府采取了一系列措施,,為投資者營(yíng)造了簡(jiǎn)單易行的投資環(huán)境,。很多規(guī)則、程序和文書(shū)手續(xù)都被廢除了,。這也是為什么根據(jù)世界銀行的排名,,印度的營(yíng)商指數(shù)上升了65位。另外,,印度也讓它的29個(gè)邦每年都圍繞營(yíng)商環(huán)境展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),,而且這種競(jìng)爭(zhēng)是很激烈的。

在吸引非英語(yǔ)人口市場(chǎng)方面,,誰(shuí)做得比較領(lǐng)先,?

我認(rèn)為谷歌是領(lǐng)先的,其次是亞馬遜,,現(xiàn)在沃爾瑪也加入進(jìn)來(lái)了,。但是谷歌依然遙遙領(lǐng)先,因?yàn)樗贗nternet Saathis項(xiàng)目和女性身上做了大量工作,。(注:谷歌與印度塔塔信托合作,,向印度廣大農(nóng)村派出女員工,,培訓(xùn)當(dāng)?shù)嘏缘幕净ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)技能。)同時(shí)谷歌也通過(guò)Google Pay做了很多數(shù)字支付機(jī)制的推廣工作,。它也資助了很多印度的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司,。

印度有很多優(yōu)秀的工程師和幾百家創(chuàng)業(yè)公司,硅谷在這方面給印度帶來(lái)了什么,?

硅谷帶來(lái)了一個(gè)很好的創(chuàng)新生態(tài)系統(tǒng),。硅谷與班加羅爾和海德拉巴的科技公司的關(guān)系,甚至要好于硅谷與華盛頓的關(guān)系,。所以說(shuō)我們已經(jīng)打造了全球第三好的生態(tài)系統(tǒng),。而它很大程度上是我們與一些充滿(mǎn)活力的硅谷公司密切合作的成果。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

When I traveled around India in December for this month’s Fortune magazine story on Google, it was hard to miss the head-spinning digital revolution underway in India. Even in the tiniest village, thousands of people had only recently bought their first smartphones and logged on to the Internet for the first time.

The consequences are profound—not only for India, for which the Internet will bring radical transformation, but also for Big Tech. In a country of more than 1.3 billion people—three times the population of the U.S.—India offers tech giants like Google the chance for drastic expansion.

For now, the driving ambition is not making money. It is finding the next billion Internet users—and most of those will be in India. There are hurdles aplenty, including political ones. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces a tough reelection battle in April, has vowed to protect India’s national tech companies from being swallowed whole by the likes of Google, Amazon, and Walmart as well as Chinese titans like Tencent and Alibaba.

In New Delhi, I sat down with Amitabh Kant, CEO of the National Institution for Transforming India, or NITI Aayog, which oversees the country’s digital policies, to ask what is at stake for India, and for U.S. tech giants like Google.

Fortune: Why is this digital transformation so important for the economy for India?

Kant: More than physical infrastructure, we need digital infrastructure if we are to grow at 9% or 10% a year over a three-decade period. We need a quantum jump in education, in health, in several of these areas. It is only digital technology that will enable India to make a big growth. And this will require us to create digital infrastructure as the backbone.

What India has done is that it has created a billion-plus biometric. It has a billion-plus mobile [devices]. It has a billion-plus bank accounts. And the government of India does all of its transfers straight into the beneficiaries’ bank accounts, using the mobile system and using the biometric. All our digital payments is mobile based now. We have 128 banks linked together; all of them are digitally connected for digital payments through the mobile system.

So this is why demonetization was so important. (In 2016, Modi invalidated most of the bank notes in circulation. —Ed.)

Yes, it pushed the limits of digital payments. In India we’ve pushed digitization in government. Unlike in the U.S., where all the data is owned by Google and Facebook, and unlike China, where it is owned by Alibaba and Tencent and Baidu, in India it’s owned by public entities. So you have the Aadhaar [a 12-number digital I.D. issued to each Indian citizen] biometric, which owns data. Now you have the Goods and Services Tax. It is all digital. Biometric data is only with public entities. You also have 99.6% of people in India paying taxes online.

But how many people pay taxes?

The formalization of GST will make it more formal. It’s quite substantial now. (Fewer than 10% of Indians are estimated to pay their taxes. —Ed.) And all of our new schemes are all digital. We’re providing health insurance for up to 500 million people. That is more than the population of the U.S. and Mexico put together. It is all cashless, portable, and it is all digital. You have digital data everywhere. And most of the people access these schemes in India through mobile smartphones.

Tell us how you’re using this billion-plus biometric you have created.

We want to make sure we are able to educate people digitally, that we are able to spread health digitally, and use this vast amount of data to use better data analytics, do innovation, help startups. Then we can ensure that people are able to get best education, the best health. We can track every child longitudinally, latitudinally, learning outcomes, to track the best outcomes, much like we track Uber cars. Or track the health of the individual using a lot of data. And this is possible only with a digital transformation, not a physical transformation.

The cost of bank transactions has fallen radically because of the use of smartphones. It used to take a long time. The use of biometrics has enabled the spread of identification. India used to be very inefficient. Now the government transfers money directly into bank accounts of all the beneficiaries.

Our view is that health and education will increasingly be delivered in rural areas through the digital network. Our challenge is to create a strong broadband and that is what we focused on. Spreading the fiber optic, number one. Number two, ensuring we are ensuring that everybody has a phone and particularly a smartphone. And in India, the cost of smartphones has fallen.

New companies have made the cost of smartphones fall radically. About 128 mobile companies are manufacturing in India. They’ve brought down the cost of manufacturing of mobiles. This will all lead to the spread of the mobile telephone and the spreading of the digital revolution in India.

Why do you see this as more important than rolling out physical infrastructure, which is obviously so important in a country like India?

Because if we were to go around creating physical banks and have physical bank managers it would take India hundreds of years. If you were to create physical schools with infrastructure it would take hundreds of years. The only way to technologically leapfrog is to use digital technology. You can educate children not through books today, and not through large schools, but through mobile telephones. There is one of our backward districts, called Banka in Bihar state, where the entire education is being done on mobile telephony.

When I visited villages, we were in Andhra Pradesh. It felt like it was going to take many years for people to get connected, and to really understand what to do with a smartphone. But you are saying 15 years.

Our experience has been that those who we think are [digitally] illiterate are actually able to use mobile telephony much faster. Rural India is very digitally savvy. Because everyone in India today is using a mobile phone. About 450 million people are using smartphones. Others are using feature phones. The switch-over from feature phone to smartphone will happen very rapidly. The size and scale of India will make the costs fall.

Data localization is a very hot issue for tech companies. How important is it for India, where big tech companies like Google store data they are collecting in the country?

This is an important issue for us. I think the last word on this has not been said. The government has appointed a committee; the committee has given a report. That is being examined by Ministry of Information and Technology. My view is that critical data, for example relating to health, must be localized. India can handle it. India is a very savvy I.T. country. The data of Indians must be kept within India. That is our view.

Do foreign investors look at India as a long-term play? They put billions in now, and eventually they will make it back?

A lot of companies are investing here for the long term, not the short term. My view is that companies like Google are here for the long term they will do a lot of good in digitization. I’m sure over a period of time they’ll do extremely well in India. The Indian market is just growing and expanding. The challenge in Google is to spread in Indian languages. We have a market of about 350 million people in English, but the rest is in local languages. The challenge for all the digital companies—Facebook, Twitter, Google, everyone—is to make a massive push for local languages, particularly Hindi.

India used to be complicated. It used to be tough for investors. But over the last four years, the government has taken a series of measures to make India easy and simple for investors. A number of rules and procedures and paperwork have all been scrapped. That’s why India has jumped up 65 positions in ease of doing business, as ranked by the World Bank. India also makes its [29] states compete every year on the ease of doing business. There is huge competition.

Who’s ahead in trying to appeal to the non-English-speaking Indian market?

I think Google is ahead. Followed by Amazon, and now Walmart will come in. But Google is way ahead because it has done a lot of work with Internet Saathis, with women. (Google, in partnership with India’s Tata Trust, deploys women in villages across India in order to train other women in basic Internet skills. —Ed.) It has done a lot of work pushing the digital payment mechanism, with Google Pay. It supports a lot of our startups.

India is full of great engineers and hundreds of startups at this point. What does Silicon Valley bring to the picture?

Silicon Valley brings a great ecosystem of innovation. There’s a greater connect between Silicon Valley and tech companies in Bangalore and Hyderabad than between Silicon Valley and Washington. So we’ve created the third best ecosystem in the world. And much of that ecosystem is a consequence of our close relationship with some dynamic Silicon Valley companies.

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