高盛集團（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的首席經(jīng)濟師揚·哈祖斯表示，全球經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)觸底反彈,。

雖然增長仍然疲軟,，但2月份高盛日前活動指標略高于向下修正的12月和1月數(shù)據(jù)。

哈祖斯和斯文·賈里·斯特恩在2月26日的一份報告中寫道：“一些綠芽正在萌發(fā),，表明后續(xù)增長將從此開始?！北M管如此,，高盛對其2019年全球國內生產(chǎn)總值將增長3.5%的預測仍持謹慎立場。

關于市場,，高盛：

仍然對風險資產(chǎn)保持樂觀,，盡管隨著市場“對經(jīng)濟衰退更樂觀”，市場優(yōu)勢已經(jīng)降低,；預計債券收益率將上升,；考慮到鴿派美聯(lián)儲以及全球經(jīng)濟增長的預期，繼續(xù)看跌美元,；未來2至3個月內適度看漲石油,，但本年度剩余月份石油前景不容樂觀。按照哈祖斯的說法,，由于金融環(huán)境收緊導致的阻力已經(jīng)減緩,，美國經(jīng)濟回升的勢頭最為強勁。

高盛也看到了中國經(jīng)濟增長出現(xiàn)轉機的初步跡象,。這也符合彭博早期活動指標反映的信息：

仍有一些高管持謹慎態(tài)度,。摩根大通公司（JPMorgan Chase＆Co.）的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙在銀行面對投資者的年度發(fā)布會中承認，經(jīng)濟中可能出現(xiàn)的阻力增多,，才使其公司創(chuàng)下了創(chuàng)紀錄的利潤,。

“我們?yōu)樗ネ俗龊昧藴蕚洌贝髅烧f,?！拔覀儾皇穷A測會出現(xiàn)衰退。我們只是說,，我們非常清楚面臨的風險,。”

高盛認為,，各大地區(qū)中,，歐洲看起來最弱，“意大利經(jīng)濟衰退,，德國接近衰退,，大多數(shù)其他經(jīng)濟體僅維持趨勢性增長?！痹搱蟾娣Q,。高盛將歐洲央行首次加息的預期從2019年末推遲至2020年中。

至于美聯(lián)儲,，高盛表示,，美聯(lián)儲在未來6至9個月有所舉措的可能性下降，年底前加息需要經(jīng)濟增長和核心通脹雙雙反彈,。高盛預計,，3月會議上會宣布美聯(lián)儲將在今年晚些時候（可能在9月）結束縮表。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

The global economy may have already bottomed out, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

While growth remains soft, Goldman’s current activity indicator in February is slightly above the downwardly-revised December and January numbers.

“Some green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth will pick up from here,” Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note dated Feb. 26. Still, the risk to Goldman’s global GDP forecast of 3.5 percent for 2019 “is probably still on the downside.”

On markets, Goldman:

remains positive on risk assets, although upside is now probably lower as markets have become “more sanguine on recession” expects bond yields to rise maintains a bearish dollar view, given a dovish Fed and expectation for a pickup in global growth is modestly bullish on oil over the next 2-3 months, but sees a more bearish outlook for the remainder of the year’The case for a pickup from the current pace is strongest in the U.S. as the drag from a tightening of financial conditions eases, according to Hatzius.

Goldman also sees tentative signs of a turnaround in Chinese growth. That’s in line with Bloomberg’s snapshot of early indicators of activity:

Some executives remain cautious. Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., used the bank’s annual presentation to investors to acknowledge a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year.

“We are prepared for a recession,” Dimon said. “We’re not predicting a recession. We’re simply pointing out that we are very conscious about the risks we bear.”

Goldman reckons Europe looks like the weakest major region, “with Italy in recession, Germany close to it, and most other economies growing at only about a trend pace,” according to the note. Goldman has pushed back its expectations for the first ECB hike from late-2019 to mid-2020.

As for the Fed, Goldman says the prospects for moves in the next 6 to 9 months have fallen and an increase toward the end of the year would require a rebound in both growth and core inflation. It expects an announcement at the March meeting that the Fed will end balance sheet runoff later this year, probably in September.