不久前，摩根大通的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙發(fā)出了他的年度致股東信。他像往常一樣介紹了摩根大通的業(yè)務(wù),，并對(duì)金融監(jiān)管和政府政策進(jìn)行了批評(píng),。通讀這封95頁的信件后，一個(gè)與眾人相悖的主題脫穎而出,，那就是和許多知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家及公司高管不同,，戴蒙認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在2019年或者不久之后不會(huì)出現(xiàn)衰退，而且他還覺得人們或許應(yīng)該更樂觀一些,。

戴蒙寫道：“當(dāng)然,，我們對(duì)當(dāng)前的問題全神貫注，而它們往往會(huì)掩蓋我們?cè)谌驅(qū)用嫒〉玫倪M(jìn)展,。我們不應(yīng)該忽視那些有利信號(hào),。”（他看到的令人鼓舞的跡象包括“強(qiáng)勁的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)”,、全球經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng),、貿(mào)易談判有可能“順利完成”，以及巴西等此前走勢(shì)乏力的市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)頭向上,。）

為了更清楚地表達(dá)自己的觀點(diǎn),，戴蒙指出了一個(gè)要點(diǎn)，那就是摩根大通考慮到最壞情況絕不意味著這種情況可能會(huì)出現(xiàn),。他強(qiáng)調(diào)說：“我們?yōu)樗ネ俗鰷?zhǔn)備,，但我們并不是預(yù)測(cè)它的到來?！?/p>

他還附加了一條說明,，即下次出現(xiàn)衰退的原因可能跟以前不同，這讓人們很難發(fā)現(xiàn)相關(guān)跡象,。戴蒙寫道：“下一次的誘因或許就是負(fù)面因素累計(jì)的結(jié)果,，也就是眾所周知的壓死駱駝的最后一根稻草?！?/p>

在這封信中,，戴蒙用了五個(gè)理由來解釋為何自己不相信經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退就在眼前。

收益率曲線倒掛沒關(guān)系

收益率曲線最近（的暫時(shí)）倒掛讓投資者在過去幾周擔(dān)心不已,。這種現(xiàn)象是指美國(guó)短期國(guó)債收益率超過了期限較長(zhǎng)的國(guó)債,，或者說10年期國(guó)債。它表明投資者擔(dān)心今后的經(jīng)濟(jì)不如現(xiàn)在,，這在歷史上一直是衰退的先兆,。

但這次戴蒙并不認(rèn)同這樣的觀點(diǎn)。他寫道：“我不會(huì)去看收益率曲線,，也不會(huì)認(rèn)為其潛在倒掛發(fā)出的信號(hào)和以往相同,。”戴蒙回顧了2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)等機(jī)構(gòu)采取的“極端”刺激措施,?！叭澜绲难胄泻捅O(jiān)管部門對(duì)市場(chǎng)干預(yù)的太多了,，因此沒有辦法徹底弄清楚它們對(duì)收益率曲線的影響?！?/p>

人們也許低估了增長(zhǎng)率

雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和投資者基本上都接受了經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的說法（他們認(rèn)為危機(jī)后的增長(zhǎng)有可能已經(jīng)是強(qiáng)弩之末）,，但戴蒙認(rèn)為他們可能過于悲觀。

他在信中寫道：“人們也許過于堅(jiān)信增長(zhǎng)將放緩以及通脹率將下滑,?！彼€指出，“就業(yè)和工資仍然在上升,?！?/p>

他還說，畢竟,，“經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇一直非常緩慢,，而且受工資需求和供給有限影響，周期末段通脹率的‘正?！仙匀挥锌赡艹霈F(xiàn),。目前還沒有看到這樣的局面，但我不會(huì)排除這種可能性,?！币馑季褪牵灰R上就斷定晚周期增長(zhǎng)不會(huì)爆發(fā),。

市場(chǎng)恐慌過度

在信中,，戴蒙用了整整一個(gè)章節(jié)來剖析2018年年底的股市大跌,，它讓標(biāo)普500指數(shù)和道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)此前一年的漲幅迅速化為烏有,。

雖然戴蒙確實(shí)警告說這樣的投資者恐慌情緒可能再次出現(xiàn)并讓市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步震蕩，但他的結(jié)論相當(dāng)肯定——這是“過度反應(yīng)”,。

實(shí)際上,，他重復(fù)了一長(zhǎng)串積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)——就業(yè)、工資和GDP繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng),；金融市場(chǎng)“健康”,；消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)信心“很強(qiáng)”（盡管低于歷史最高點(diǎn)）；“消費(fèi)者的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債以及信貸情況相當(dāng)好”,；以及美國(guó)各個(gè)城市的住宅供應(yīng)都處于緊張狀態(tài)（“這最終會(huì)成為增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力”）,。

正因?yàn)槿绱耍髅商嵝炎x者在股市上操作時(shí)要有所保留,，并且理性行動(dòng)：“市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)并不總是確切地體現(xiàn)實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,，因此，決策者甚至企業(yè)都不應(yīng)該對(duì)其反應(yīng)過度,?！?/p>

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)無大礙

雖然中美貿(mào)易談判的每一絲風(fēng)吹草動(dòng)都牽動(dòng)著公司和投資者的心,，而且他們也無法確定兩國(guó)能否達(dá)成協(xié)議，但戴蒙并不感到緊張,。他寫道：“我們相信最終形成公平貿(mào)易協(xié)議的可能性很高,。”當(dāng)然,，他也指出,，如果談不成，就會(huì)產(chǎn)生“嚴(yán)重的影響”,，但沒有什么是中國(guó)對(duì)付不了的：“中國(guó)可以應(yīng)付許多嚴(yán)峻局勢(shì),，因?yàn)楹桶l(fā)達(dá)的民主國(guó)家不同，中國(guó)可以同時(shí)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行宏觀管理和微觀管理,，并且非常迅速地采取行動(dòng),。”

戴蒙還認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國(guó)家已經(jīng)變得更加穩(wěn)定,，從而降低了自身債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：“在新興市場(chǎng),，國(guó)家和企業(yè)都比以前成長(zhǎng)了很多，也強(qiáng)大了很多,?！?/p>

債務(wù)情況還不算太壞

戴蒙還認(rèn)為，不斷上升的美國(guó)預(yù)算赤字及其引發(fā)衰退的潛力不足為慮：“美國(guó)的債務(wù)規(guī)模正在快速上升,，但并未達(dá)到危險(xiǎn)水平,。”

他更擔(dān)心自己所說的“影子銀行”,，或者說非銀行借貸的增長(zhǎng),，特別是抵押貸款和學(xué)生貸款，以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的杠桿貸款,。不過,，戴蒙寫道：“我們認(rèn)為這樣的規(guī)模和質(zhì)量不會(huì)在金融系統(tǒng)中造成系統(tǒng)性問題。目前的水平依然可控,?！?/p>

戴蒙的結(jié)論是：“如今的情況絕非2008年能比?！?/p>

為大家的利益著想,，希望他是對(duì)的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Jamie Dimon released his annual letter recently, offering his usual update on JPMorgan Chase’s activities along with a critique of financial regulation and government policy. Reading through the letter, which runs 95 printed pages, one contrarian theme stands out: Unlike many prominent economists and executives, Dimon doesn’t see a recession coming in 2019 or soon after—and he thinks people should probably be a bit more optimistic.

“Of course, we hyper-focus on today’s problems, and they often overshadow the progress we are making across the globe,” Dimon writes. “We should not overlook the positive signs.” (Among the encouraging signs he observes: a “strong U.S. economy,” continued global growth, the likelihood that trade negotiations will be “properly resolved” and the upturn in previously struggling markets such as Brazil.)

Making his view extra clear, Dimon draws an important distinction—that just because JPMorgan accounts for a worst-case scenario doesn’t mean it believes it’s likely to happen. “We are prepared for—though we are not predicting—a recession,” he emphasizes.

He does issue one caveat: That the next recession may not happen for the same reasons as recessions in the past, making it difficult to spot the signs. “Next time,” he writes, “the cause may be just the cumulative effect of negative factors—the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back.”

Still, here are five clues Dimon drops in his letter for why he doesn’t think a recession is imminent.

The Inverted Yield Curve Doesn’t Matter

For the past couple of weeks, investors have been fretting over the recent (and temporary) inversion of the yield curve, a phenomenon in which short-term Treasury bonds pay out higher interest rates than their longer-term counterparts, the 10-year Treasury. It’s a sign that investors are worried the economy will be worse in the future than it is today, and historically has been a consistent harbinger of recession.

But Dimon isn’t buying it this time. “I would not look at the yield curve and its potential inversion as giving the same signals as in the past,” he writes, citing “extreme” stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve and others following the 2008 financial crisis. “There has simply been too much interference in the global markets by central banks and regulators to understand its full effect on the yield curve.”

People Might Be Underestimating Growth

Though economists and investors have largely resigned themselves to a slowdown in the economy (thinking that the post-crisis expansion has likely run its course), Dimon thinks they might be overly pessimistic.

“There may be too much certainty that growth will be slow and inflation subdued,” he writes in his letter, noting that “employment and wages continue to go up.”

After all, he continues, “This has been a very slow recovery, and it is possible that the ‘normal’ increase of inflation late in the cycle, due to wage demands and limited supply, can still happen. We don’t see it today, but I would not rule it out.” In other words, don’t count out a late-cycle growth spurt just yet.

Market Fears Are Overblown

Dimon spends an entire section of the letter dissecting the stock market plunge at the end of 2018, which rapidly erased all of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gains for the year.

Though he does warn that such investor panic could return and bring more market volatility, Dimon comes to a fairly certain conclusion: It was an “overreaction.”

Indeed, he repeats a laundry list of positive economic indicators—continued growth of employment, wages, and GDP; “healthy” financial markets; “strong” consumer and business confidence (even if below all-time highs); the fact that “the consumer balance sheet and credit are in rather good shape;” and tight housing supply in cities across the U.S. (“which should eventually be a tailwind”).

That’s why Dimon reminds his readers to take stock moves with a grain of salt, and to act rationally: “Market reactions do not always accurately reflect the real economy, and, therefore, policymakers and even companies should not overreact to them.”

China Is Going to Be Just Fine

While companies and investors have been hanging on to every bit of news coming out of the trade talks between the U.S. and China, wondering whether the two sides can come to an agreement, Dimon isn’t sweating it. “We believe the odds are high that a fair trade deal will eventually be worked out,” he writes. Of course, if that fails, there will be “serious repercussions,” he notes—but nothing China can’t handle: “China can deal with many serious situations because, unlike developed democratic nations, it can both macromanage and micromanage its economy and move very fast.”

Dimon also thinks developing nations have become more stable, making their debt loads less of a risk: “The emerging markets, both countries and companies, are much bigger and stronger than they were in the past,” Dimon writes.

Debt Isn’t Too Bad Yet

Dimon also waved off fears about the growing U.S. budget deficit, and its potential to cause a recession: “America’s debt level is rapidly increasing but is not at the danger level.”

He’s more concerned about what he calls “shadow banking,” or an increase in lending by non-banks, particularly mortgages and student loans as well as higher-risk leveraged loans. Still, “we don’t think this is yet of the size or quality to cause systemic issues in the financial system,” Dimon writes. “At this level, it is still a manageable issue.”

The bottom line: “Today is nothing like 2008,” Dimon writes.

For everyone’s sake, let’s hope he’s right.