如果一切順利的話,，今年8月，一列完全由電腦控制的貨運(yùn)列車將在科羅拉多州普韋布洛市附近的一條鐵路上進(jìn)行試運(yùn)行,。這列幾千噸的龐然大物將完全依靠人工智能和傳感器技術(shù)運(yùn)行,，人類列車員只負(fù)責(zé)觀察。

本次試驗(yàn)將在一段48英里長(zhǎng)的試驗(yàn)路段上進(jìn)行,，但它標(biāo)志著無(wú)人列車技術(shù)邁出了重要的一步,，其結(jié)果甚至有可能徹底改變鐵路行業(yè)的格局。

鐵路運(yùn)輸仍然是一項(xiàng)規(guī)模龐大且利潤(rùn)豐厚的業(yè)務(wù),，但跟10年前相比,，鐵路的運(yùn)量明顯有所下降，其最大客戶——煤炭行業(yè)也經(jīng)歷了長(zhǎng)期的衰退,。美國(guó)政府的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，2017年，美國(guó)有價(jià)值約7000億美元的貨物是通過(guò)鐵路運(yùn)輸?shù)?，相比之下,，通過(guò)公路運(yùn)輸?shù)呢浳飫t要多出很多,，其價(jià)值超過(guò)了12萬(wàn)億美元。

為了趕上公路的運(yùn)力,，鐵路公司必須能夠吸引那些增長(zhǎng)速度較快的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén),，比如需要更快更可靠的寄遞服務(wù)的電商行業(yè)。因此,，鐵路公司也對(duì)自動(dòng)化技術(shù)抱以厚望,，因?yàn)樗梢宰尰疖嚺艿酶欤⑶铱s短各個(gè)班次的間隙,，從而降低燃油成本,，提高鐵路運(yùn)力。

投資公司Cowen and Co.的分析師馬特·埃爾科特表示：“我認(rèn)為在這方面并沒(méi)有太多爭(zhēng)議,，這就是鐵路行業(yè)需要走的方向,。”在埃爾科特看來(lái),，鐵路行業(yè)在5至7年內(nèi)就將實(shí)現(xiàn)大規(guī)模的自動(dòng)化,。

在此背景下，各大鐵路公司競(jìng)相發(fā)力,，希望將人工智能,、機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)等高新技術(shù)整合到鐵路系統(tǒng)中。西門(mén)子,、西屋制動(dòng)（Wabtec）和克諾爾（Knorr-Bremse）等老牌鐵路設(shè)備制造商也在積極與英偉達(dá),、微軟、日立等科技公司展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),。

If all goes as planned in August, a freight train will chug down a track near Pueblo, Colo.—entirely controlled by computers. Humans in the locomotive will merely observe, as the latest in artificial intelligence and sensor technology puts thousands of tons of steel through its paces.

The experiment, on 48 miles of track at the railroad industry’s advanced testing ground, is a big step in the push for autonomous train technology. The outcome could fundamentally alter the railroad industry.

While still a huge, highly profitable business, railroads move less freight than they did 10 years ago, and their biggest customer—the coal industry—is in long-term decline. Almost $700 billion in cargo moved by train in 2017, the latest government figures show, but trucks carried far more, over $12 trillion.

To catch up, rail companies must appeal more to faster-growing segments of the economy, like e-commerce, which require speedier and more reliable deliveries. Automation, railroads hope, is the answer because it could reduce fuel costs and increase capacity by enabling trains to run faster and closer together.

“I don’t think there’s much debate: This is where the railroads need to go,” says Cowen and Co. analyst Matt Elkott, who forecasts extensive automation in the industry within five to seven years.

That reinvention effort is setting off a race to add A.I., machine learning, and other high-tech features to the rail system. Age-old railroad equipment makers like Siemens, Wabtec, and Knorr-Bremse are up against tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Hitachi.

無(wú)人列車技術(shù)所需要的大多數(shù)高科技元件,，實(shí)際上早已經(jīng)相繼投入應(yīng)用了——比如用來(lái)降低燃油消耗和控制緊急制動(dòng)系統(tǒng)的元件等。我們需要的只是利用人工智能技術(shù)將它們整合到一起,，并且通過(guò)測(cè)試,，說(shuō)服所有利益相關(guān)方接受列車無(wú)人化的大趨勢(shì)。

不過(guò)即使有關(guān)測(cè)試進(jìn)展順利,，無(wú)人列車也依然面臨一些挑戰(zhàn),。首先是強(qiáng)大的鐵路行業(yè)工會(huì)，他們?cè)诒３謫T工規(guī)模的問(wèn)題上一貫是激烈抗?fàn)幍?。其次,，公眾可能?huì)擔(dān)心無(wú)人列車的安全性問(wèn)題，這也是行業(yè)必須要解決的一個(gè)問(wèn)題,。最后,，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)可能會(huì)對(duì)這項(xiàng)技術(shù)持有懷疑態(tài)度，但無(wú)人列車技術(shù)要想普及,，就必須獲得監(jiān)管部門(mén)的蓋章審批,。

此次將在科羅拉多州試驗(yàn)的技術(shù)來(lái)自于紐約空氣制動(dòng)公司（New York Air Brake）,，該公司的首席執(zhí)行官烏利塞斯·卡米洛表示：“當(dāng)然，我們是有能力做到的,，問(wèn)題是以多快的速度,。”

實(shí)際上,，無(wú)人列車技術(shù)的基礎(chǔ)在美國(guó)已經(jīng)打下了,。這還要?dú)w功于美國(guó)出臺(tái)的一項(xiàng)升級(jí)北美鐵路系統(tǒng)安全性的規(guī)劃。該規(guī)劃耗資100億美元,，歷時(shí)達(dá)12年之久，到明年升級(jí)就應(yīng)該結(jié)束了,。該計(jì)劃是在2008年加州火車相撞事故后啟動(dòng)的,。那一年，有一列通勤列車與一列聯(lián)合太平洋鐵路公司的貨運(yùn)火車迎頭相撞,，導(dǎo)致25人死亡,。事故原因是一名列車駕駛員粗心大意闖了紅燈。

事故發(fā)生后,，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)要求整個(gè)鐵路系統(tǒng)必須對(duì)安全功能進(jìn)行升級(jí),，實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)化安全控制。該項(xiàng)目又被稱作“積極列車控制系統(tǒng)”,，簡(jiǎn)稱PTC,。PTC的任務(wù)之一，便是在鐵軌和道岔上加裝傳感器,，以便向中央服務(wù)器發(fā)送信息,，告訴火車前方的交通和路況。如果列車駕駛員未能減速或停車,，系統(tǒng)可以自動(dòng)進(jìn)行干預(yù),。不過(guò)就其本身而言，PTC只具備處理少數(shù)幾種緊急情況的能力,，比如未按信號(hào)燈行駛,，或者在急轉(zhuǎn)彎時(shí)車速過(guò)快等。

從某些方面看,，鐵路應(yīng)該可以借鑒無(wú)人駕駛汽車的很多技術(shù),，比如攝像頭、雷達(dá)和光探測(cè)技術(shù)等——不過(guò)無(wú)人列車和無(wú)人汽車也有很大的區(qū)別,，比如要讓一輛貨運(yùn)火車停下來(lái),，至少需要1英里長(zhǎng)的剎車距離（一輛快速行駛的汽車大約需要300英尺）。

Most of the tech components—including ones that reduce fuel consumption and control emergency braking systems—have already been deployed in piecemeal fashion. What’s needed is A.I. to tie them together and testing to persuade all the stakeholders to go along for the ride.

But even if the tests go well, autonomous trains face several challenges. The first is powerful railroad unions, which have fought bitterly over crew sizes. Next, the industry would have to overcome public fears that autonomous technology is unsafe. And finally, sometimes-skeptical regulators would have to give their seal of approval.

“Of course we’ll be able to do it,” says Ulisses Camilo, CEO of New York Air Brake, the company whose technology will be tested in Colorado. “The question is how fast.”

The groundwork for autonomous rails was laid as part of a 12-year, $10 billion safety upgrade to North America’s system that should be completed by next year. The overhaul started in 2008, after 25 people died in the head-on collision of a commuter train and a Union Pacific freight train in Chatsworth, Calif. (a distracted engineer blew past a red signal light).

In response, Congress mandated that the entire system be upgraded with automatic safety overrides. Known as Positive Train Control, or PTC, the program includes sensors on tracks and switches that send information to central servers, telling trains about traffic and conditions ahead. If an engineer fails to slow or stop a train, the system can automatically intervene. Still, by itself, PTC is equipped to handle only a few types of emergencies, like a missed signal or a train traveling too fast around a sharp curve.

In some ways, the railroads should be able to adapt or borrow from many of the camera, radar, and lidar technologies used in self-?driving cars and trucks. One big difference: Stopping a freight train can take a mile or more (versus 300 feet for a fast-moving car).

目前,，力拓集團(tuán)（Rio Tinto）在澳大利亞已經(jīng)開(kāi)始使用全自動(dòng)列車,，從16座礦山向數(shù)百英里外的港口運(yùn)送鐵礦石,。截至去年年底，該公司的無(wú)人列車已經(jīng)安全行駛了近300萬(wàn)英里,。

盡管列車自動(dòng)化有很多潛在的好處,，但各大鐵路貨運(yùn)公司都不愿意就這個(gè)問(wèn)題向《財(cái)富》雜志發(fā)表評(píng)論。這也是可以理解的,，畢竟今年秋天的工會(huì)談判在即,，眼下可以說(shuō)是一個(gè)敏感時(shí)期，尤其是一些鐵路公司可能會(huì)提議將列車車組人員從兩人削減到只剩一人,。

鐵路行業(yè)的工會(huì)則認(rèn)為,，自動(dòng)化只不過(guò)是資本家裁員的另一手段。去年,，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦鐵路局曾經(jīng)就鐵路無(wú)人化公開(kāi)征求意見(jiàn),，最后一共收集到3400多條意見(jiàn)，其中99%都是反對(duì)意見(jiàn),。

美國(guó)鐵路工人聯(lián)合會(huì)的特別代表弗里茨·埃德勒表示：“這項(xiàng)技術(shù)確實(shí)很花哨,，但它還沒(méi)有迎來(lái)它的黃金時(shí)代?！彼赋?，將車組人員削減到一人，同時(shí)高度依賴自動(dòng)化,，“無(wú)疑是危險(xiǎn)的,。”

美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府目前尚未推動(dòng)無(wú)人列車計(jì)劃,，不過(guò)它在今年6月貌似就已經(jīng)表明了它在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上的立場(chǎng)——美國(guó)政府否決了奧巴馬時(shí)代的一項(xiàng)關(guān)于將貨運(yùn)列車車組人員固定為2人的立法提議,。

就在鐵路行業(yè)還在就自動(dòng)化展開(kāi)激辯的時(shí)候，與之競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的公路運(yùn)輸行業(yè)仍然在自我革命,，無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)和電動(dòng)汽車的應(yīng)用,，都會(huì)大幅降低公路運(yùn)輸?shù)某杀尽?/p>

對(duì)此，運(yùn)輸行業(yè)的一名獨(dú)立分析師托尼·哈奇表示：“鐵路行業(yè)對(duì)此必須做出反應(yīng),?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文原載于《財(cái)富》雜志2019年8月刊。

譯者：樸成奎

Already, mining giant Rio Tinto is using fully autonomous trains in Australia to deliver iron ore from 16 mines to ports hundreds of miles away. By the end of last year, the company said it had safely completed almost 3 million miles of autonomous travel.

Despite the potential benefits of automation, major freight railroads declined to comment to Fortune on the issue. Union negotiations in the fall make this a sensitive time, particularly because railroads will likely propose reducing train crews to just one person from two.

Railroad unions see automation as yet another effort to reduce their ranks. When the Federal Railroad Administration asked for public feedback last year about autonomous rail, it was flooded with 3,400 comments, 99% of which were in opposition.

“The technology is flashy, but it is not ready for prime time,” warns Fritz Edler, special representative for the Railroad Workers United union. Reducing train crews to one person and depending on automation would be “demonstrably dangerous,” he says.

The federal government hasn’t moved forward with a plan for ?autonomous trains yet, but it may have showed its hand in June when it killed an Obama-era proposal that would have enshrined into law two-person crews.

Even as the railroad industry debates automation, the rival trucking industry is pushing ahead, with both self-driving technology and electric vehicles that may be much cheaper to operate.

Says Tony Hatch, an independent transportation industry analyst: “The railroads have to respond.”

This article originally appeared in the August 2019 issue of Fortune.