這聽起來(lái)像是個(gè)笑話：一家銀行提供負(fù)利率房貸，希望通過(guò)數(shù)量來(lái)彌補(bǔ)損失,。

但這是現(xiàn)實(shí),，至少對(duì)于丹麥第三大銀行日德蘭銀行（Jyske Bank）來(lái)說(shuō)是這樣。該機(jī)構(gòu)提供10年期-0.5%的固定利率按揭貸款,。如果你買了房,，能因此掙到錢。

但是,，先別急,，不用現(xiàn)在就打開學(xué)習(xí)丹麥語(yǔ)的節(jié)目，撣去護(hù)照上的灰塵,。盡管這聽起來(lái)很瘋狂,，但其背后的細(xì)節(jié)卻令人大開眼界，充分說(shuō)明了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)可能的走向,。

負(fù)利率房貸的概念聽上去就不可能成功,。“我從沒(méi)有見過(guò)也沒(méi)有聽說(shuō)過(guò)負(fù)利率貸款,，也不認(rèn)為美國(guó)金融機(jī)構(gòu)會(huì)實(shí)施負(fù)利率,。”Alliant Credit Union負(fù)責(zé)住宅貸款業(yè)務(wù)的副總裁杰瑞·安德森表示,，“這種做法非常極端,，很可能僅限于丹麥,。”

確實(shí)如此,，至少就目前而言,。

丹麥?zhǔn)菤W盟成員國(guó)，但不使用歐元,，而是保留了自己的貨幣克朗（krone,，復(fù)數(shù)為kroner），就像英國(guó)保留了英鎊一樣,。

“我們對(duì)歐元有固定匯率,。”日德蘭銀行的按揭貸款專家米克爾·霍伊表示,。丹麥必須“遵循（歐洲央行）的政策”,。換句話說(shuō)，當(dāng)歐洲央行改變利率時(shí),，丹麥必須同時(shí)改變利率,，以保持貨幣的匯率不變。

歐洲央行目前的存款利率為-0.4%,。因此,，丹麥的基準(zhǔn)利率目前為-0.65%，給養(yǎng)老基金等需要存錢的投資機(jī)構(gòu)帶來(lái)了戰(zhàn)略性難題,。只要把錢放在任何一種形式的儲(chǔ)蓄里,，錢都會(huì)縮水。如果把所有資金都投在股票和其他投資工具里,，一旦市場(chǎng)下跌,，你可能會(huì)缺乏足夠現(xiàn)金來(lái)支付必要的款項(xiàng)。

雖然負(fù)利率房貨看起來(lái)會(huì)讓銀行無(wú)法盈利,，但事實(shí)并不一定如此,。這是因?yàn)榈湏碛歇?dú)特的按揭貸款支持債券，機(jī)構(gòu)投資者又有分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的需求,。

根據(jù)霍伊的說(shuō)法,，這個(gè)國(guó)家有200年抵押債券的歷史。他們的抵押債券與導(dǎo)致次貸危機(jī)的主要因素“擔(dān)保債務(wù)憑證”（CDO）完全不同,。CDO將數(shù)千種次級(jí)抵押貸款組合在一起,，借此推動(dòng)發(fā)行債券，再將這些債券打包在一起,，獲得主要信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)的高評(píng)級(jí),。

然而，這類按揭貸款往往包括通過(guò)不正當(dāng)手段獲取的貸款。結(jié)果是,，高評(píng)級(jí)債券的基礎(chǔ)是大量不穩(wěn)定的貸款,，這些貸款最終一定會(huì)崩盤。

在丹麥,，債券是和投資相匹配的。每筆按揭抵押貸款都有一個(gè)單一的投資人——通常是像養(yǎng)老基金這樣的機(jī)構(gòu),，他們會(huì)在做出同意交易的決定前獲得特定借款人的全部財(cái)務(wù)信息,。

當(dāng)前情況下，丹麥購(gòu)房者通過(guò)銀行向投資者借款,，但不會(huì)獲得全額貸款,。獲得10萬(wàn)美元抵押貸款的人只能夠獲得9.5萬(wàn)美元現(xiàn)金，但仍然需要償還10萬(wàn)美元,。投資者擁有這5000美元的差額,，并在10年的還款期限內(nèi)得到10萬(wàn)美元。

請(qǐng)耐心聽我們解釋,。除了支付10萬(wàn)美元,，購(gòu)房者還需向銀行支付0.3%的利息以及一些初始費(fèi)用，這就是銀行盈利的方式,。但在抵押貸款期間,，投資者需要向購(gòu)房者支付貸款金額的0.5%，也就是說(shuō)他們要賠錢,。但有了投資者提供的0.5%,，購(gòu)房者貸款時(shí)能夠凈得0.2%的利息利潤(rùn)。銀行得到0.3%的利息加上一些費(fèi)用,。唯一沒(méi)有盈利的是投資者,，他們借出的錢損失了0.5%。

為什么機(jī)構(gòu)要投資于那些收益必然為負(fù)的東西呢,？因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心投資在其他領(lǐng)域里可能會(huì)損失更多的錢,。

比如說(shuō)，丹麥的機(jī)構(gòu)可以投資美國(guó)國(guó)債,，而不投資按揭貸款,。8月1日至9日期間，美國(guó)國(guó)債每日的價(jià)格均有所下降,。六個(gè)月期間,，從2.04美元跌到了1.95美元。10年期國(guó)債從1.9美元跌至1.74美元,。與此同時(shí),，丹麥和美國(guó)之間的匯率波動(dòng)一直很大。從7月中旬到8月中旬,，匯率下跌了4%,。隨著美元走強(qiáng),，購(gòu)買同樣的債券需要更多的克朗。

霍伊稱,，丹麥的機(jī)構(gòu)擔(dān)心美元的強(qiáng)勢(shì)不會(huì)持久,。在下跌過(guò)程中，以本幣計(jì)價(jià)的債券價(jià)值會(huì)下跌,，最終可能出現(xiàn)的損失會(huì)超過(guò)支持按揭貸款所需要的0.5%的成本,。

這是在經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)時(shí)期分散潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一種嘗試。盡管目前這種情況只發(fā)生在丹麥,，但這是一個(gè)時(shí)代的標(biāo)志,，而且不是一個(gè)非常好的標(biāo)志。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

It sounds like the wind up for a joke: a bank offers negative interest rates mortgages and hopes to make up the losses with volume.

But it’s a reality, at least for Jyske Bank, the third largest market share bank in Denmark. The institution is offering ten-year -0.5% fixed-interest mortgages. You buy the house and get paid as a result.

But don’t get a Danish language learning program and dust off that passport just yet. As crazy as it sounds, the details behind it are eye-opening and speak volumes about where the global economy might be headed.

The notion of a negative mortgage interest rates sounds like a non-starter. “I have not seen or heard of negative rates on a loan and would not anticipate a U.S. financial institution to engage in negative rates,” said Jerry Anderson, vice president of residential lending at Alliant Credit Union. “This is very extreme and most likely restricted to Denmark.”

Indeed it is—for the time being.

Denmark is an EU member but did not adopt the use of the euro, keeping instead its own currency, the krone (plural is kroner), much as the U.K. kept the pound.

“In Denmark, we have fixed exchange rates to the Euro,” said Mikkel H?egh, a mortgage economist at Jyske. The county must “follow [European Central Bank] policy.” In other words, when the ECB changes its interest rates, Denmark must shift its own interest rates to keep the currency exchange rate fixed.

The ECB currently has depository interest rates at -0.4%. Denmark’s benchmark rate is currently -0.65% as a result, creating strategic problems for investors like pension funds that need to park money. Put money into any form of savings and it literally loses value. Keep everything in stocks and other instruments and if markets turn south you might lack the cash to make necessary payments.

While a negative mortgage rate should make it impossible to see a profit, that’s not necessarily the case. That’s because of Denmark’s approach to mortgage-backed bonds and the risk diversification needs of institutional investors there.

The country has a 200-year history of mortgage bonds, according to H?egh. They are significantly different from the collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, a prominent factor in the Great Recession. CDOs grouped together thousands of subprime mortgages that then fueled bonds, which packaged together together received high ratings from the major credit rating agencies.

The groups of mortgages, however, too often included blocks that has been offered under shady practices. The result was that highly rated bonds could sit on unstable piles of loans that eventually crashed, as ultimately happened.

In Denmark, the bonds are match funded. For every mortgage, there is a single investor—most often an institution like a pension fund—that gets the full financial information on the specific borrower before agreeing to the deal.

Under the current circumstances, the Danish home buyer borrows money from the investor through the bank but doesn’t get the full amount. Someone who gets a $100,000 mortgage only receives $95,000 in cash but is still responsible for paying back $100,000. The investor keeps the $5,000 difference and receives the $100,000 over the ten years.

Now bear with us. In addition to paying the $100,000, the home buyer also pays 0.3% interest to the bank plus some initial fees, which is how the bank makes some profit. But the investor pays 0.5% on the borrowed amount to the home buyer during the mortgage, which means it loses money. But with the 0.5% from the investor, the home buyer nets 0.2% interest profit on taking out the loan. The bank gets its 0.3% in interest plus some fees. The only one that doesn’t profit is the investor, which loses 0.5% on the amount it lent.

Why would institutions invest in something that is guaranteed to offer negative returns? Because they are concerned about potentially losing even more money in other ways.

A Danish institution could invest in U.S. Treasury bonds instead of a mortgage. The daily rates have dropped between Aug. 1 and 9. The six month went from $2.04 to $1.95. The ten-year went from $1.90 to $1.74. In the meantime, fluctuations in the exchange rate between Denmark and the U.S. have been high. The rate dropped 4% between mid-July and mid-August. As the dollar gains strength, it takes more kroner to buy a bond.

According to H?egh, institutions in Denmark are worried that the dollar’s strength won’t last. In a slide, the bond’s value falls in local currency and could end up posting a greater loss than the 0.5% that backing a mortgage costs.

It’s an attempt to spread potential risk in risky economy times. And though for now this is only going on in Denmark, it’s a sign of the times—and not a terribly good one.