別名“豬埃博拉”的非洲豬瘟正在迅速演變成農(nóng)業(yè)巨頭面臨最具破壞性的疾病之一,。豬瘟蔓延擾亂了全球貿(mào)易，推動(dòng)豬肉價(jià)格上升,，還導(dǎo)致數(shù)千萬(wàn)頭家豬和野豬遭屠宰,。這場(chǎng)瘟疫的爆發(fā)點(diǎn)在中國(guó)，也是全球最大的豬肉生產(chǎn)國(guó)和消費(fèi)國(guó),。

從2019年到目前為止,，由于非洲豬瘟導(dǎo)致發(fā)病死亡或采取針對(duì)性宰殺等緊急遏制措施，中國(guó)農(nóng)戶已經(jīng)損失3億至3.5億頭豬,?！澳壳肮罍y(cè)農(nóng)戶已經(jīng)損失40%的豬，到年底損失可能達(dá)到50%以上,?！?荷蘭合作銀行旗下研究部門(mén)RaboResearch的高級(jí)分析師克里斯蒂娜·麥克拉肯向《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō)道,?！皳p失將超過(guò)歐盟和美國(guó)全年飼養(yǎng)的數(shù)量?！?/p>

RaboResearch預(yù)計(jì),，非洲豬瘟今年將導(dǎo)致全球生豬供應(yīng)量減少約四分之一，受影響國(guó)家補(bǔ)充國(guó)內(nèi)庫(kù)存可能需要長(zhǎng)達(dá)五年,。而且有跡象表明,，已經(jīng)開(kāi)始攀升的出口價(jià)格將會(huì)飆漲，可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)都會(huì)保持高位,。

自2018年12月以來(lái),，Rabobank統(tǒng)計(jì)五大進(jìn)出口市場(chǎng)（中國(guó),、加拿大、巴西,、美國(guó)和歐盟）而編制的“五國(guó)生豬價(jià)格指數(shù)”已經(jīng)上漲20%以上,，不過(guò)世界各地對(duì)豬價(jià)上漲的反應(yīng)各異。今年到目前為止,，美國(guó)的生豬和母豬價(jià)格幾乎沒(méi)有變化,，預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)攀升。豬肉是中國(guó)人喜愛(ài)的食物,， RaboResearch數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，今年7月，中國(guó)生豬價(jià)格上漲了40%以上,。

中國(guó)無(wú)疑是受創(chuàng)最嚴(yán)重的市場(chǎng),，不過(guò)瘟疫也在迅速擴(kuò)散到鄰國(guó)。根據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)糧食及農(nóng)業(yè)組織最新的非洲豬瘟熱度圖,，非洲豬瘟已經(jīng)蔓延至朝鮮,、越南和柬埔寨等7個(gè)鄰國(guó)。越南的例子可看出該病傳播速度之快,，2月越南確認(rèn)首例,，糧食及農(nóng)業(yè)組織稱6個(gè)月后越南全境已經(jīng)爆發(fā)62起疫情，農(nóng)業(yè)和農(nóng)村發(fā)展部只得下令宰殺400萬(wàn)頭豬,。

非洲豬瘟是一種高傳染性,、高致命性的病毒，僅在豬之間傳播,，農(nóng)場(chǎng)家豬和野豬都很容易感染,。（不會(huì)危及人類健康。）通過(guò)腌制或烹調(diào)無(wú)法從豬身上根除病毒,，所以該病防治起來(lái)非常困難,。受感染的家豬或野豬很快就會(huì)傳染給其他豬。另外,，獵人和農(nóng)民的衣服如果已經(jīng)遭到病毒污染,，一不小心就會(huì)傳染給健康的豬。

人們認(rèn)為,，疫情始于大約十年前,，從非洲擴(kuò)散到了東歐和亞洲。十個(gè)歐盟國(guó)家都報(bào)告爆發(fā)了非洲豬瘟,，之后采取地區(qū)性農(nóng)場(chǎng)檢疫隔離措施,。歐盟官員下令在疫區(qū)嚴(yán)格管控，有針對(duì)性地宰殺,，并將捕殺野豬的季節(jié)擴(kuò)大至全年,，還在部分地區(qū)設(shè)立了賞金,。在歐盟，遏制戰(zhàn)略似乎對(duì)農(nóng)場(chǎng)養(yǎng)豬有效,。

在亞洲,，特別是中國(guó)，問(wèn)題正在逐漸惡化,。在全球貿(mào)易方面造成各種各樣的影響——不僅僅是豬肉產(chǎn)品,，還有其他來(lái)源的動(dòng)物蛋白。在受非洲豬瘟重創(chuàng)的國(guó)家,，豬肉供應(yīng)受限,，禽類價(jià)格開(kāi)始攀升。由于急需豬肉,，中國(guó)增加了從貿(mào)易伙伴的進(jìn)口,。RaboResearch在最新的豬肉行業(yè)季度報(bào)告中稱：“在2019年前五個(gè)月，歐盟對(duì)中國(guó)的豬肉出口同比增長(zhǎng)41%,?！?/p>

在今夏的貿(mào)易關(guān)稅糾紛里，這甚至成為了美國(guó)農(nóng)戶難得的亮點(diǎn),。盡管中美兩國(guó)之間存在貿(mào)易摩擦,，中國(guó)還是從美國(guó)購(gòu)買(mǎi)一部分動(dòng)物蛋白。

“我不敢確定貿(mào)易摩擦到什么程度,，但估計(jì)中國(guó)會(huì)繼續(xù)購(gòu)買(mǎi)美國(guó)豬肉,。”麥克拉肯說(shuō)道,?！澳壳笆澜缙渌貐^(qū)沒(méi)有足夠的豬肉（或其他蛋白質(zhì)）能滿足中國(guó)的需求。預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)的豬肉,、牛肉和禽肉可以幫忙填補(bǔ)空白,，直到中國(guó)內(nèi)部供應(yīng)恢復(fù)正常?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：艾倫

審校：夏林

Nicknamed “pig ebola,” African swine fever is rapidly becoming one of Big Ag’s most devastating disease outbreaks, upending global trade, driving up pork prices and resulting in the slaughter of tens of millions of pigs and wild boar. And ground zero is China, the world’s biggest producer and consumer of pork.

Chinese farmers have lost 300 million to 350 million pigs to ASF so far in 2019 through either disease-related deaths or such emergency containment efforts as targeted culls. “We currently estimate 40% of the herd has already been lost, and more than 50% of the herd could be eliminated by year-end,” Christine McCracken, a senior analyst at RaboResearch, the research arm of Dutch investment bank Rabobank, told Fortune. “This loss would account for more pigs than are raised in an entire year by the EU and U.S.”

RaboResearch projects that ASF will wipe out roughly one-quarter of the global pig supply this year, and that it could take up to five years for impacted countries to replenish their domestic stocks. And there are signs export prices, which have already begun to climb, will soar and remain high for the foreseeable future.

RaboBank’s “Five Nation Hog Price Index,” which counts the Big 5 export/import markets (China, Canada, Brazil, the United States and European Union) has jumped more than 20 percent since December, 2018. That rise has been felt differently around the world. Hog and sow prices in the U.S. have barely budged year-to-date, but are expected to climb. In China, where pork is a beloved staple of the diet, hog prices jumped more than 40% in July, according to RaboResearch.

China far and away is the most impacted market, but the disease is rapidly spreading to neighboring countries. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ latest ASF heat map, the disease has spread to seven neighboring countries, including North Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia. In a sign of how fast the disease spreads, Vietnam confirmed its first outbreak in February. Six months later there are 62 outbreaks around the country forcing the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to order the cull of 4 million swine, according to FAO.

African swine fever is a highly contagious and highly lethal virus that spreads from pig to pig, impacting both domestic farmyard pigs and feral hogs. (There’s no health risk to humans.) The disease is extremely difficult to eradicate as curing or cooking the meat doesn’t eliminate it from the animal’s system. An infected pig or wild boar passes it quickly to other swine. Hunters and farmers can also easily pass it to pigs via contaminated clothes.

The current outbreak is believed to have started about a decade ago, spreading into Eastern Europe and Asia. Ten EU countries have reported ASF outbreaks, triggering the quarantine of regional farms. EU officials have ordered selective culls of stricken region and the expansion of boar-hunting season year-round with bounties instituted in some places. In the EU, the containment strategy seems to be working for farmyard pigs.

In Asia, and particularly China, the problem is trending in the wrong direction. And that’s triggered all kinds of global trade ramifications—not just for pork products, but other sources of animal protein as well. Poultry prices have begun to climb in ASF-stricken countries where pork supplies are suffering. Desperate for pork, China has upped imports from trade partners. “In the first five months of 2019, EU exports to China were up 41% YOY,” RaboResearch said in its latest quarterly report on the pork industry.

It’s even become a rare bright spot for the American farmer in a summer of trade tariffs. China is a willing buyer of American animal protein despite the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing.

“I am not sure how much more serious the trade war will get, but my expectation is that China will continue to buy U.S. pork,” said McCracken. “There is currently not enough pork (or other protein) available in the rest of the world to fully meet China’s protein needs. We expect U.S. pork, beef, and poultry to help fill the void until China can rebuild its internal supplies.”