挪威的Norsk Hydro是全球的主要鋁生產(chǎn)商，對(duì)其北美分公司而言,，夏季以來(lái)的生意一直不那么紅火,。

Norsk Hydro北美業(yè)務(wù)的年銷(xiāo)售額為30億美元，在北美各地設(shè)有20多家工廠，生產(chǎn)拖車(chē),、卡車(chē),、轎車(chē)和門(mén)窗的“骨骼”。該業(yè)務(wù)總裁查爾斯·斯特拉菲斯說(shuō)：“就像許多行業(yè)一樣,，這8至10年我們一直在增長(zhǎng),。”去年,，經(jīng)營(yíng)情況達(dá)到了2006年以來(lái)的最高點(diǎn),。而今年截至7月的業(yè)績(jī)放慢了3%，但依然“相當(dāng)好”,。

現(xiàn)在情況如何呢,？斯特拉菲斯表示：“過(guò)去兩個(gè)月我們看到了相當(dāng)顯著的減速?！?/p>

卡車(chē)和拖車(chē)訂單分別下降了50%和70%,。代表較小機(jī)械銷(xiāo)售和生產(chǎn)廠家的一般經(jīng)銷(xiāo)業(yè)務(wù)下滑了4%-7%。汽車(chē)業(yè)務(wù)下降了4%,。該項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)的唯一問(wèn)題是2020年的業(yè)績(jī)是會(huì)從前期高點(diǎn)回落5%-10%,，還是會(huì)出現(xiàn)20%-40%的衰退性下跌。斯特拉菲斯說(shuō)：“我還不知道答案,?！?/p>

許多制造商都面臨著類(lèi)似局面。一些公司將渡過(guò)難關(guān),，原因是一段時(shí)間以來(lái)他們一直在準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)行科技創(chuàng)新或制定營(yíng)銷(xiāo)策略,，或者一直在利用行業(yè)的上升勢(shì)頭。其他的則可能發(fā)現(xiàn)來(lái)年會(huì)很困難,。

窺測(cè)未來(lái)

已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了令人不安的跡象,。9月的就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示美國(guó)制造業(yè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)減少了2000個(gè)，而去年9月的數(shù)字是增加1.8萬(wàn)個(gè),。美國(guó)供應(yīng)管理學(xué)會(huì)編制的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）是制造業(yè)的晴雨表,。8月的PMI降至50以下，9月進(jìn)一步滑落到47.8,，創(chuàng)2009年以來(lái)新低,。該指數(shù)低于50即表明行業(yè)處于收縮狀態(tài)。價(jià)格水平連續(xù)第四個(gè)月下降,。受這些經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)影響,，道瓊斯指數(shù)下跌近500點(diǎn)。

許多工廠都出現(xiàn)了明顯的放緩跡象,。向制造企業(yè)銷(xiāo)售金屬制造設(shè)備的CNC Machines的首席執(zhí)行官科特·達(dá)赫迪此前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,，他發(fā)現(xiàn)夏季業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)緩慢,，而秋季銷(xiāo)售增幅只有他通常預(yù)期的一半。這樣的趨勢(shì)一直在延續(xù),。達(dá)赫迪說(shuō)：“我們必須得比以往更有創(chuàng)造性,，以便拉到更多生意?！?/p>

有些領(lǐng)域仍在增長(zhǎng)

許多公司都存在不確定性,，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)也面臨挑戰(zhàn)。

設(shè)在圣路易斯的定制材料處理設(shè)備廠商BHS的首席營(yíng)銷(xiāo)官兼執(zhí)行副總裁吉姆·胡貝爾指出：“更多大型產(chǎn)品的工業(yè)制造放慢了速度,，[比如工程和工業(yè)設(shè)備],。”但北美的應(yīng)用型制造“目前仍處于高水平”,。

和中國(guó)的貿(mào)易關(guān)系依然令人迷惑,。唐納德·特朗普宣稱在最近的談判中獲勝?！吨袊?guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》則表示已經(jīng)取得了進(jìn)展：“基于以往的經(jīng)驗(yàn),，華盛頓總有可能取消協(xié)議，前提是它認(rèn)為這樣做更符合自己的利益,?！惫緹o(wú)法確定應(yīng)該采取怎樣的策略。

美國(guó)全國(guó)制造商協(xié)會(huì)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家查德·穆特雷博士指出：“我們的觀點(diǎn)一直是制造商需要更多的確定性,。美加墨協(xié)定[取代之前的北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定]需要獲得通過(guò),。制造商希望和中國(guó)的貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端畫(huà)上句號(hào),。我們一直在說(shuō)的其他問(wèn)題還包括進(jìn)出口銀行以及我們需要它充分發(fā)揮作用,。”

整體趨勢(shì)一直有利于一些公司的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),。由于汽車(chē)電子和物聯(lián)網(wǎng)快速增長(zhǎng),，有85年歷史的芝加哥電子制造企業(yè)Morey的總裁兼首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官喬治·惠蒂爾表示，該公司預(yù)計(jì)明年將增長(zhǎng)25%,。但中國(guó)的情況讓“[成本]略有上升”,，而且必須將其轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者。

但對(duì)許多公司來(lái)說(shuō),，市場(chǎng)和行業(yè)趨勢(shì)本身的延續(xù)性已經(jīng)不足,，而且已經(jīng)到了需要認(rèn)真重新考量的時(shí)候了。

發(fā)明之母

金屬制造商Quikcut的所有者及首席執(zhí)行官馬克·韋伯說(shuō)：“如果只生產(chǎn)一種產(chǎn)品,，而且這是你的全部業(yè)務(wù),，那你在滑坡時(shí)就會(huì)受到較大的影響,?！彼陂_(kāi)拓新市場(chǎng)并分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！坝行┕ぷ鳜F(xiàn)在就要取得成果了。我覺(jué)得這是一個(gè)在下行市場(chǎng)中實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)的機(jī)會(huì),。如果不出現(xiàn)這樣的局面,，資源就得不到解放,?！?/p>

提升創(chuàng)造性,，無(wú)論是為了改善質(zhì)量和效率,，還是為了鎖定新的機(jī)遇，都已經(jīng)成為創(chuàng)造新的機(jī)會(huì),，從而駕馭較大經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)浪的關(guān)鍵,，至少理論上如此。但另辟蹊徑可能很難,，而且不能保證企業(yè)可以經(jīng)受住此類(lèi)風(fēng)暴的洗禮,。

達(dá)赫迪說(shuō)：“我接觸到的一些年紀(jì)較大的人不喜歡變化。我覺(jué)的這是人的本性,，他們希望堅(jiān)守自己了解的東西,。除非他們每年都有意識(shí)地推動(dòng)自己去學(xué)習(xí)最新科技，否則他們的思維就會(huì)拘泥于20年前管用的那些東西上,。”

紐約州羅徹斯特市門(mén)窗五金件生產(chǎn)商Caldwell Manufacturing也發(fā)現(xiàn)8月的業(yè)務(wù)放緩,。該公司的首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官蓋瑞·米勒說(shuō)：“我們的全年業(yè)績(jī)會(huì)很好，但上個(gè)季度的情況不會(huì)像此前6至7個(gè)季度那么火爆,?！?/p>

Caldwell已經(jīng)開(kāi)始投資于3D打印機(jī)，它將后者用于產(chǎn)品原型,、短期生產(chǎn)以及工廠自動(dòng)化。米勒說(shuō)：“它讓我們得以重新安排人手,，[讓他們從事技術(shù)要求更高的工作]?！边@項(xiàng)投資應(yīng)該有助于2020年的經(jīng)營(yíng)?！拔覀兟晕⑻岣吡嗣髂甑念A(yù)期,，同時(shí)我們正在推出許多新產(chǎn)品，我們覺(jué)得它們會(huì)產(chǎn)生非常好的效果,?！?/p>

但對(duì)Caldwell來(lái)說(shuō)，這依然只是意味著個(gè)位數(shù)增長(zhǎng),。雖然好過(guò)大幅下跌,，但這表明制造商，或者其他任何行業(yè)中的公司無(wú)法單憑創(chuàng)新來(lái)繞開(kāi)強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)因素,?；蛟S不會(huì)有很大的新市場(chǎng)來(lái)改變局勢(shì)，許多新市場(chǎng)甚至?xí)苄　?/p>

制造業(yè)的整體問(wèn)題是公司能否可以等待貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端趨于平靜以及美國(guó)的消費(fèi)支出能否繼續(xù)占GDP的7%,。如果公眾變得緊張并停止消費(fèi)，工廠里的生產(chǎn)線預(yù)計(jì)就會(huì)長(zhǎng)期停擺,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

?

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

For a North American division of Norsk Hydro, a major global aluminum producer, business hasn’t been cheery since the summer.

“Like a lot of industries we’ve been on an 8- to 10-year growth period,” says Charles Straface, president of the $3 billion annual sales business unit that builds the “bones” of such products as trailers, trucks, cars, windows, and doors in more than 20 factories across North America. Last year, business was at a peak it hadn’t seen since 2006. This year things began to slow by 3% through July, which was still “pretty good.”

Now? “In the last two months we’re seeing pretty massive slowing,” Straface says.

Truck and trailer order rates are down between 50% and 70%. General distribution, a proxy for smaller machine shops and fabricators, is off by 4% to 7%. Automotive is down by 4%. The only question the business has is whether 2020 brings a 5% to 10% correction from a previous high or a 20% to 40% recession-type contraction. “I don’t know the answer to that,” Straface says.

Many manufacturers face similar questions. Some will pull through because they’ve been preparing for some time with innovation of technology and marketing strategies or have ridden industry rising industry trends. Others, though, might find the coming year difficult.

Crystal ball

There have been disquieting signs. The September jobs report showed a loss of 2,000 manufacturing jobs versus a gain of 18,000 at the same time last year. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a manufacturing strength indicator from the Institute for Supply Management, dropped below 50 in August—a sign of industry contraction—and last month further fell to 47.8, the lowest number since 2009. Prices contracted for the fourth straight month. The result drove a nearly 500-point drop in the Dow.

A slowdown has been obvious on many factory floors. Curt Doherty, CEO of CNC Machines, a reseller of metal manufacturing equipment to manufacturers, previously told Fortune he saw a slow summer and only half of the fall sales uptick he normally expected. Things have continued along the same trend. “We’re having to get creative to land more deals than we used to,” he says.

Some things keep growing

There’s uncertainty for many companies and challenges in a global economy.

“More industrial manufacturing of certain large volume types of products [like construction and agricultural equipment] are slowing down,” says Jim Huber, COO and executive vice president of BHS, a St. Louis-based manufacturer of custom material handling equipment. But manufacturing for use in North America “for the moment continues to remain at a high level.”

Trade in China remains confusing. Donald Trump claimed victory in recent negotiations. However, China Daily, a news outlet of the country’s government, notes a breakthrough appears to have happened, “based on its past practice, there is always the possibility that Washington may decide to cancel the deal if it thinks that doing so will better serve its interests.” Companies can’t be sure of what their strategies should be.

“What we’ve been saying at the National Association of Manufacturers is manufacturers need more certainty,” says the organization’s chief economist, Dr. Chad Moutray. “We need the USMCA [NAFTA replacement] passed. Manufacturers are looking for a conclusion to the trade war with China. The other issue we’ve all been talking about is the export import bank and the need to get that fully functioning.”

General trends have buoyed the finances of some companies. Rapid growth of electronics in automobiles and of the Internet of Things means 85-year-old Chicago-based electronics manufacturer Morey expects 25% growth next year, according to president and COO George Whittier. But the situation in China has “added a bit [in cost]” that must be passed on to customers.

For many, though, market and industry trends alone haven’t been sufficiently sustaining and some serious rethinking is due.

Mother of invention

“If you’'re only making one product and that’s all you do, you’re going to be affected more in a downturn,” says Mark Webb, CEO and owner of metal fabrication manufacturer Quikcut. He’s pushed to enter new markets and diversify his risk. “Some of those things are coming to fruition now. I look at it as an opportunity to grow in a declining market. It frees up resources to do things you otherwise wouldn’t do.”

The push for creativity, whether in making things better and more efficiently or locating new opportunities, has become critical to open new opportunities that—in theory at least—can surf over some big economic waves. But doing something different can be hard—and no guarantee that a company will weather the storm.

“Some of the older generations I’ve talked to, they don’t like change,” Doherty says. “I think it’s human nature and they want to stick to what they know. Unless they’re consciously making that push every year to learn the newest technology, they’re the ones that seem stuck on mentally what was working 20 years ago.”

Caldwell Manufacturing, which makes door and window hardware, also saw the August slowdown. “We will have a good year, but the last quarter is not going to be as on fire as what we felt for the last six or seven quarters,” says Gary Miller, COO of the Rochester, New York-based company.

Caldwell has invested in 3D printers for prototypes and short-run production as well as plant automation. “It allows us to redeploy our headcount [to higher skilled tasks],” Miller says. The investment should help with prospects for 2020. “We’re forecasting up slightly for the coming year, but we’re launching a lot of new products that we think will have a very good impact.”

But for Caldwell that still only means low single-digit growth. While that’s better than a significant drop, it doesn’t mean innovation alone will let manufacturers—or companies in any other industry—make an end run around big economic forces. There may not be a big new market, or even many little ones, to make up the difference.

The question for manufacturing in general is whether companies can wait out the calming of trade waters and if American consumer spending will continue to be 70% of GDP. If the public gets nervous and stops buying, expect a lot of idle time on the factory line.