大眾集團(tuán)正在進(jìn)軍電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng),，不過(guò)它采取了截然不同的兩個(gè)路線(xiàn)。

今年9月,，大眾旗下的保時(shí)捷終于推出了大家盼望已久的Taycan轎車(chē),，它也是大眾集團(tuán)在高端電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的試水之作。Taycan的命名依然有著濃濃的保時(shí)捷的味道（Taycan這個(gè)單詞來(lái)自于土耳其語(yǔ),，意思是“一匹年輕駿馬的靈魂”）,，它有超強(qiáng)的快充能力，續(xù)航可達(dá)200英里以上,，同時(shí)搭載了大量高新技術(shù)和控制元件,，其起價(jià)超過(guò)了15萬(wàn)美元。與此同時(shí),，在德國(guó)的法蘭克福車(chē)展上，大眾集團(tuán)又推出了一款名為ID.3的小型掀背車(chē),，它的續(xù)航里程為341英里,，外觀(guān)看起來(lái)跟一臺(tái)普通的大眾高爾夫大同小異，只是使用了頗顯洋氣的雙色配色,，以彰顯它的異國(guó)情調(diào)和未來(lái)感,。可惜的是,，該配置的ID.3可能并不會(huì)登陸美國(guó)市場(chǎng),。

ID.3的賣(mài)點(diǎn)，就在于它是一款非常實(shí)惠的買(mǎi)菜車(chē),。它的售價(jià)還算比較親民（起售價(jià)約為3.3萬(wàn)美元）,，而且配了一塊足夠的大的電池，基本能夠緩解車(chē)主的“里程焦慮癥”,。雖然高端電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)是一塊穩(wěn)穩(wěn)當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)拇蟮案饬恕@點(diǎn)我們從特斯拉的崛起,，以及保時(shí)捷Taycan的火爆預(yù)訂就能看出來(lái)（目前已經(jīng)有3萬(wàn)多人交了訂金）。但是對(duì)于我們這些普通人呢,？路面上的這些平價(jià)汽油車(chē)啥時(shí)候才能換成電動(dòng)汽車(chē),？我們的那些跨界SUV、那些作為“油老虎”的皮卡,，以及我們孩子的第一輛車(chē),，什么時(shí)候才能變成電動(dòng)的？

The Volkswagen Group is getting charged up, and doing so in two vastly different ways.

In September, the car conglomerate’s prized Porsche showed off the long-awaited Taycan, its entry into the luxury electric vehicle (EV) space. Taycan has a properly Porsche name (it translates from Turkish origin as “the soul of a spirited young horse”), ultra-fast charging capability, 200-plus miles of range, and a slew of fancy tech features and controls in the cabin. It also starts at a price north of $150,000. Meanwhile, at Germany’s own Frankfurt Auto Show, Volkswagen debuted the ID.3, a little hatchback promising 341 miles of range. The car, which sadly won’t be coming to America in this configuration, looks a bit like a typical Volkswagen Golf, albeit with a jazzy teal two-tone paint job to mark it as exotic and futuristic.

The big deal about the ID.3 is its very ordinariness—and its attempt at an ordinary price tag (starting at about $33,000 USD) combined with a big enough battery to ease range anxiety. We know the luxury EV market is here to stay, as the rise of Tesla and the long line of Porsche Taycan preorders (30,000 deposits so far) have proven it. But how far are we from having a fleet of perfectly plain EVs populating our roads—our standard soccer-dad crossovers, our prized pickups, and our kids’ first car? Where are the mundane, workaday EVs?

閃亮登場(chǎng)

將時(shí)間倒回10年前,，也就是電動(dòng)汽車(chē)剛剛興起的時(shí)候，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),，當(dāng)時(shí)倉(cāng)促上陣的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)在外觀(guān)和功能上還很不成熟,。比如2010年的推出的第一代日產(chǎn)Leaf，看起來(lái)就像一顆圓滾滾的土豆——這是因?yàn)樗耐庑突菊粘巳债a(chǎn)的入門(mén)級(jí)家轎騏達(dá),。這種設(shè)計(jì)顯然是有意為之,，目的是為了分流豐田普銳斯的部分潛在買(mǎi)主。10年前的普銳斯大概是最火爆的新能源車(chē)型了,。

特斯拉的出現(xiàn)改變了這一切,。特斯拉讓電動(dòng)汽車(chē)變成了“高端大氣上檔次”的玩意兒。2012年,，特斯拉的Model S轎跑一經(jīng)推出,，立即讓零排放轎車(chē)的理念深入人心。特斯拉的橫空出世起了一石二鳥(niǎo)的作用,。它不僅成功地將電動(dòng)汽車(chē)包裝成了一種高端產(chǎn)品,，而不只是環(huán)保玩家自嗨的小眾車(chē)型，同時(shí)也掩蓋了在汽車(chē)?yán)锇惭b鋰電池組的高昂成本,。

隨著特斯拉的成功,，在電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的高低兩端，各大廠(chǎng)商仍在持續(xù)發(fā)力,。捷豹公司推出了全電動(dòng)轎跑i-Pace,，奧迪和保時(shí)捷也跟風(fēng)推出了e-Tron和Taycan等高端車(chē)型，試圖從特斯拉的Model S手中分一杯羹,。與此同時(shí),，低端市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也愈發(fā)激烈。雖然雪佛蘭Bolt和寶馬i3銷(xiāo)量平平,，但這并未阻止各大廠(chǎng)商紛紛進(jìn)軍平價(jià)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的步伐,。

目前，美國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)即將進(jìn)入汽車(chē)電動(dòng)化的第三階段：全面電動(dòng)化,。全球多數(shù)汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商都相繼宣布,，要在本世紀(jì)20年代實(shí)現(xiàn)汽車(chē)產(chǎn)品的電動(dòng)化，通過(guò)推出各種混合動(dòng)力或全電動(dòng)車(chē)型,，滿(mǎn)足日益苛刻的環(huán)保要求,。目前，各家電動(dòng)皮卡已經(jīng)紛紛入市,，其中不僅有特斯拉和Rivian等初創(chuàng)公司的產(chǎn)品,，也有很多來(lái)自于老牌汽車(chē)企業(yè)的產(chǎn)品。與此同時(shí)，各大車(chē)企也在紛紛研發(fā)大大小小的跨界車(chē)型,、面包車(chē)和家用轎車(chē),。過(guò)不了多久，所有主流車(chē)型都會(huì)推出混動(dòng)或純電版,。要不了幾年,，我們就能看見(jiàn)純電版的福特野馬跑車(chē)和F-150皮卡了。

不過(guò),，為什么很多人覺(jué)得自己對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的需求并不迫切,？我們可以從銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)中找一下答案。

“平價(jià)”電動(dòng)汽車(chē)并不平價(jià)

加州是美國(guó)最大的汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng),，也是美國(guó)最大的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng),。2019年上半年，加州的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量較上年同期增長(zhǎng)了63%,，達(dá)到51750輛,。不過(guò)這種增長(zhǎng)主要是備受期待的特斯拉Model 3貢獻(xiàn)的。今年上半年,，特斯拉Model 3的銷(xiāo)量達(dá)到了33000輛,，相比之下，雪佛蘭Bolt和日產(chǎn)Leaf的銷(xiāo)量分別只有4482和2034輛,。換句話(huà)說(shuō),，雖說(shuō)大家都覺(jué)得電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的大趨勢(shì)不可避免，可真到用銀子投票的時(shí)候,，多數(shù)人并不鐘情于傳統(tǒng)廠(chǎng)商推出的這些樸實(shí)無(wú)華的車(chē)型。

更流暢的設(shè)計(jì),、更堅(jiān)實(shí)的充電設(shè)施和更好的技術(shù)性能,，無(wú)疑助推了特斯拉的強(qiáng)勁銷(xiāo)量。對(duì)Model 3的一路唱衰也并沒(méi)有影響它的銷(xiāo)路,。跟往常一樣,，最大的影響因素還是價(jià)格。

雖然埃隆·馬斯克曾經(jīng)信誓旦旦地宣稱(chēng),，Model 3的售價(jià)大約在3.5萬(wàn)美元左右,，是一臺(tái)針對(duì)平民百姓的“買(mǎi)菜車(chē)”。不過(guò)一旦算上稅費(fèi),，它的落地價(jià)還是飆過(guò)了4萬(wàn)美元,。（與此同時(shí)，特斯拉的聯(lián)邦稅收抵免已經(jīng)下降到1875美元,，而且很快就會(huì)完全取消,。）當(dāng)然，這個(gè)問(wèn)題對(duì)于特斯拉的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也是存在的。雪佛蘭Bolt的售價(jià)在3.6萬(wàn)美元以上,。日產(chǎn)的第二代Leaf雖然比第一代有了明顯的改進(jìn),，續(xù)航里程也達(dá)到了220英里，但它的售價(jià)也漲到了3萬(wàn)多美元,。作為兩款熱門(mén)小型跨界車(chē)的純電版,，起亞Niro和現(xiàn)代Kona也面臨著同樣的問(wèn)題，

現(xiàn)代就是一個(gè)很好的例子,。Kona的汽油版是一款很受歡迎的小車(chē),，它的汽油版和純電版一同獲得了2019年度北美年度風(fēng)云車(chē)大獎(jiǎng)。Kona電動(dòng)車(chē)的續(xù)航里程達(dá)到258英里,，甚至超過(guò)了240英里的特斯拉Model 3,。《人車(chē)志》雜志也因此稱(chēng)Kona是市面上最好的純電車(chē)之一,。在Kona純電版發(fā)布時(shí),，我個(gè)人曾以為，它標(biāo)志著備受美國(guó)人喜愛(ài)的跨界車(chē)終于迎來(lái)了電動(dòng)化時(shí)代,。不過(guò)Kona雖然在一些海外市場(chǎng)獲得了成功,，但它只在美國(guó)沿海的少數(shù)幾個(gè)州有售。截止到2019年7月,，它在美國(guó)的銷(xiāo)量有1751輛,。

[注：為了方便橫向比較，我省略了大眾高爾夫電動(dòng)版和菲亞特500電動(dòng)版等車(chē)型,，因?yàn)檫@兩款車(chē)的續(xù)航里程非常有限,，因而實(shí)用性堪憂(yōu)。出于同樣原因,，本文將不深入探討插電式混動(dòng)汽車(chē)——也就是充電后只能在純電狀態(tài)跑個(gè)幾十公里,，就要讓汽油發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)介入的汽車(chē)。今年上半年,，插電式混動(dòng)車(chē)型在美國(guó)賣(mài)得并不好,，很大程度上是由于通用汽車(chē)停產(chǎn)了該領(lǐng)域的標(biāo)桿車(chē)型——雪佛蘭Volt。]

Kona電動(dòng)版的最大敵人,，或許就是Kona的汽油版,。后者的經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商建議零售價(jià)只有2.01萬(wàn)美元，才剛過(guò)純電版的一半,。即使買(mǎi)主可以拿到一筆豐厚的聯(lián)邦稅收抵免,，再加上購(gòu)電時(shí)各州或各市給予的退稅，也無(wú)法彌補(bǔ)這么大的差額,。與此同時(shí),，美國(guó)的汽油價(jià)格近來(lái)一直保持疲軟,，司機(jī)們也就更加沒(méi)有購(gòu)買(mǎi)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的動(dòng)力了。

大眾集團(tuán)公布的ID.3的售價(jià)約在3.3萬(wàn)美元左右,，這是一個(gè)正確的方向,，但大眾和其他傳統(tǒng)廠(chǎng)商一樣，也面臨著一個(gè)同樣的問(wèn)題——除非電池的價(jià)格下降了,，使得純電版汽車(chē)真的在價(jià)格上與汽油版有一拼,，否則精打細(xì)算的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者還是不會(huì)選擇電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

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A Flashy Start

Rewind a decade, back to the dawn of our current electric car resurgence, and you’ll see the hasty evolution in how EVs are supposed to look and what they’re allowed to be. The first Nissan Leaf, released in 2010, resembled a bulbous rolling potato. Its signature look stemmed in part from the fact that Nissan based the car on the entry-level Versa. Part of the science-project aesthetic was clearly intentional, though, meant to appeal to the same kind of early adopters who swarmed to the pod-like Toyota Prius during the previous decade, when it was the driving darling of the green set.

That paradigm changed with Tesla. Elon Musk and company made electric driving sexy and attractive, stamping the brand’s vision of a zero-emissions luxury car onto our collective consciousness with the 2012 rollout of the Model S. Tesla pulled a double trick here. Reinventing the electric car as a premium product positioned it for success beyond just eco-focused buyers and helped to mask the steep cost of putting a big lithium-ion battery in a car.

Both of those market trends continue. Jaguar built the all-electric i-Pace, which, along with the likes of the Audi e-Tron and the Taycan, competes with the Tesla Model S in the high-end electric market. And the more affordable future-pods roll on, with the Chevy Bolt and BMW i3 finding modest sales in electric-friendly markets.

Now, though, the U.S. auto market stands at the start of a third phase of electrified driving: EV everything. Most of the world’s major auto companies have pledged to electrify their lineups during the 2020s, selling a wide variety of hybrids and totally electric vehicles to meet increasingly stringent fuel economy targets. Electric pickup trucks are coming, not only from flashy startups like Tesla and Rivian but also from established automakers. So are big crossovers, small crossovers, vans and cars. It won’t be long before every major car model offers a hybrid or all-electric version; EV Ford Mustangs and F-150 full-size trucks are a few years away.

So why does it feel like adoption of everyday EVs isn’t exactly imminent? Take a quick look at sales numbers.

An Affordable EV Is Not Necessarily An Affordable Vehicle

In California, the nation’s largest auto market and biggest EV market by far, electric vehicle sales rose by more than 63 percent to 51,750 EV sales in the first half of 2019. However, the strength of the much-anticipated Tesla Model 3 drove that rise. Tesla sold 33,000 Model 3s against just 4,482 Chevy Bolts and 2,034 for the Nissan Leaf. In other words: the less-flashy electric offerings from traditional automakers aren’t drumming up the sort of EVmania we’ve been lead to believe is inevitable.

A sleeker design, more robust charging infrastructure, and better tech features certainly aided Tesla’s strong sales. The steady drumbeat of Model 3 hype didn’t hurt, either. As usual, though, the prime culprit comes down to price.

While Elon Musk ballyhooed the Model 3 as Tesla’s $35,000 everyman EV, it’s not exactly priced for the masses. Add on any options plus the new car fees and taxes, and the cost of even the base model can slip well over $40,000. (Meanwhile, Tesla’s federal tax credit is now down to $1,875, soon to disappear entirely.) And the competition isn’t doing much better. The Chevy Bolt starts north of $36,000. Nissan’s second-generation Leaf is a marked improvement over the original, but equipped with a 220-mile battery it also reaches the high $30,000s. The same is true of the Kia Niro and Hyundai Kona, fully electrified versions of popular small crossovers.

The Hyundai is a telling case study. The Kona EV is derived from the brand’s popular gasoline-powered car, and together the two versions won the 2019 North American Utility of the Year award. Publications like Car and Driver lauded the Kona EV as one of the best fully electric options on the market, with its 258-mile range outpacing the 240 miles of the Tesla Model 3. Upon the EV’s release, I personally heralded it as a sign of things to come, when electric powertrains finally will enter the anonymous crossovers that Americans just can’t stop buying. But Hyundai, despite some success in friendlier overseas markets, is selling the Kona EV in just a select few coastal states and had moved a paltry 1751 units in the U.S. through July 2019.

[Note: For the sake of apples-to-apples comparison, I’m omitting EVs like the Volkswagen e-Golf and Fiat e500, whose limited range make them impractical and primary autos. For the same reason, this article doesn’t dive into plug-in hybrid vehicles—those that allow drivers to plug into a charger and travel a few dozen miles on electric power before a backup gas engine kicks on. PHEVs cratered in the first half of 2019, largely because GM discontinued the field’s standard-bearer, the Chevrolet Volt.]

The Kona EV’s killer might just be the Kona. Hyundai’s gasoline version starts with an MSRP of $20,100, barely more than half the cost of its electric cousin. Even a buyer who can snag a fat federal tax credit plus a state or local rebate for buying electric can’t make up that kind of gap. Meanwhile, with gas prices more or less stagnant across America, drivers have one less incentive to buy a ride that doesn’t rely on the pump.

Volkswagen’s announced price for the ID.3 comes in at an estimated $33,000. That’s a step in the right direction, but VW stares down the same problem hanging over all the established car companies: Until batteries come down in price, at least enough that electric offerings become truly competitive with their internal combustion counterparts, budget-conscious Americans aren’t shifting into the EV lane.