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????我們選取了一些分析師對(duì)蘋果（Apple）iPad 2發(fā)布會(huì)的反應(yīng),，截至上周四中午，我們共收到了20份報(bào)告,。

????奧本海默（Oppenheimer）的耶爾?瑞內(nèi)：剛剛推出的iPad 2做出了一些小的改進(jìn),，這種改進(jìn)正是消費(fèi)者期望從2代蘋果設(shè)備身上看到的,。盡管iPad 2并沒有增加什么突破性的特點(diǎn)或功能，但這些改進(jìn)和升級(jí)——更薄,、更輕,、更快、更互聯(lián)——加總在一起,，極大的提升了這款設(shè)備總的吸引力,。這次升級(jí)與此前iPhone G2.5到3G那次升級(jí)特別像，當(dāng)時(shí)那一系列小的改進(jìn)使得iPhone的銷量在其誕生第二年增長(zhǎng)了2倍多,。iPad的那些競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性產(chǎn)品這下慘了,，它們還在努力趕上1代iPad的價(jià)格和性能。在2011年,，蘋果將繼續(xù)占據(jù)平板電腦市場(chǎng)75%-85%的份額,。

????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂：盡管今天沒有什么大的驚喜，但在親身試用iPad 2樣機(jī)之后,，我們認(rèn)為其性能有了極大改進(jìn),，而且厚度和重量都大幅減小，從而提升了整個(gè)用戶體驗(yàn)……我在過去一年一直在使用1代iPad,，相比之下,，iPad 2樣機(jī)的網(wǎng)頁下載速度和整體運(yùn)行速度都快得多。在性能提升之外,，iPad 2的厚度和重量的減小也不容小覷,。2代iPad外觀時(shí)尚——比1代iPad薄了33%，輕了15%（與其多款10英寸的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品相比也是如此）,，這對(duì)整個(gè)用戶體驗(yàn)有著重要影響,。

????RBC的麥克?阿布拉姆斯基：在iPad 2發(fā)布會(huì)上，休病假的史蒂夫?喬布斯意外現(xiàn)身,，令大家又驚又喜（盡管他并沒有說明自己會(huì)不會(huì)重返蘋果）,，相比之下，會(huì)上宣布的其他事項(xiàng)以及iPad 2的新增功能基本都在人們的意料之內(nèi)……iPad 2提升了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),，持續(xù)對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者造成壓力,，并繼續(xù)瞄準(zhǔn)尋求絕佳用戶體驗(yàn)、以媒體功能為中心的平板電腦消費(fèi)者,。iPad 2沒有改變即將推出的Android平板電腦或PlayBook的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局,，因?yàn)楹笳哚槍?duì)的是另外的子市場(chǎng)（比如Android/谷歌粉絲、以生產(chǎn)力為中心的消費(fèi)者以及企業(yè)級(jí)市場(chǎng)）,。

????Needham的查理?沃爾夫：在iPad問世一年之后,，各廠商爭(zhēng)相推出媒體平板電腦，然而iPad 2一出,，這些產(chǎn)品馬上將被淘汰,。那些競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性產(chǎn)品可以模仿iPad的硬件特點(diǎn),，但現(xiàn)在沒有,、將來也不會(huì)有誰能夠媲美iPad的軟件。而且它們?cè)趦r(jià)格方面也無法與iPad競(jìng)爭(zhēng),。

????Susquehanna的杰夫?費(fèi)達(dá)卡洛：我們最近發(fā)布的供應(yīng)鏈檢查顯示,，由于一些季節(jié)性因素，在2011年第1季度,，iPad的產(chǎn)量將為690萬到710萬部，其中只有近200萬部為1代iPad,。這與Digitimes的一篇文章不謀而合,，該文章稱蘋果在2011年1季度將生產(chǎn)600萬到650萬部iPad（包括iPad 2在內(nèi)），而在2011年全年將生產(chǎn)4000萬部iPad,。我們預(yù)測(cè)在2011年第2季度，iPad 1的庫存將降低,，而iPad的產(chǎn)量將大幅增長(zhǎng)至1000萬至1200萬部。我們預(yù)計(jì)在3月份和6月份那兩個(gè)季度,，iPad的發(fā)貨量將分別為525萬部和850萬部,。

????巴克萊（Barclay）的本?雷特茲：我們認(rèn)為今天的iPad 2發(fā)布會(huì)非常成功,，而且蘋果3月11日就將開始發(fā)售iPad 2，這對(duì)2011年第1季度的iPad銷量而言,，會(huì)是一個(gè)意外的利好。我們認(rèn)為史蒂夫?喬布斯的現(xiàn)身也是一個(gè)利好,，不過,，長(zhǎng)期來看，我們認(rèn)為更關(guān)鍵的是蘋果強(qiáng)勁的基本面以及iPad供應(yīng)鏈僅今年一年就將生產(chǎn)4000多萬部iPad這一點(diǎn),。iPad 2令人驚艷，其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品將望塵莫及,。

????花旗銀行（Citigroup）的理查德?加德納：僅僅從硬件參數(shù)來看,，蘋果iPad 2就已趕上或超越其它競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手目前的產(chǎn)品。關(guān)于上代iPad,，批評(píng)的焦點(diǎn)集中在其缺少前后攝像頭和雙核處理器，不過現(xiàn)在這些問題都解決了,。iPad 2繼續(xù)在續(xù)航時(shí)間上獨(dú)占鰲頭（超過10小時(shí)），而且還是目前市面上最薄最輕的10英寸平板電腦,。除了出色的硬件，iPad 2還具有以下優(yōu)點(diǎn)：（1）499美元的起價(jià)極具殺傷力,，鑒于蘋果的成本優(yōu)勢(shì)，這一售價(jià)將令其它競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手難以匹敵,；（2）對(duì)開發(fā)者具有強(qiáng)大吸引力（iOS上有65000款專為平板電腦設(shè)計(jì)的應(yīng)用程序，而其它平臺(tái)的軟件數(shù)量則少得可憐）,；（3）蘋果產(chǎn)品的裝機(jī)量極大，有2億多個(gè)賬號(hào)關(guān)聯(lián)了信用卡,；（4）天衣無縫、無以倫比的用戶體驗(yàn),，現(xiàn)在仍然無人能敵。

????德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯?惠特摩爾：我們估計(jì)iOS的裝機(jī)量超過1.85億（iPhone,、iPad和iPod touch），目前為止,，iOS開發(fā)者們從應(yīng)用程序中獲得的收益超過20億美元。除此之外,，iPad擁有超過65000款專門定制的應(yīng)用程序（Android蜂巢的應(yīng)用程序只有可憐巴巴的近100款）。我們預(yù)期蘋果巨大的裝機(jī)量將吸引更多的開發(fā)者,，而開發(fā)者帶來的新應(yīng)用到時(shí)候又會(huì)為蘋果拉來更多用戶，從而使得蘋果的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大,。我們還預(yù)計(jì)蘋果會(huì)獲得來自運(yùn)營商（美國電話電報(bào)公司和威瑞森）的強(qiáng)力支持,，加之其無可匹敵的分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)（蘋果零售店,、在線渠道、百思買,、國際網(wǎng)絡(luò)等），iPad銷量將強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),。

????高盛（Goldman Sachs）的比爾?紹普：我們認(rèn)為iPad 2的上市和6月份iPhone的升級(jí)，將成為市場(chǎng)未來幾個(gè)月的關(guān)鍵催化劑事件,。我們的模型曾保守的假設(shè)蘋果會(huì)降低批發(fā)平均售價(jià)，而現(xiàn)在iPad 2售價(jià)未變,，因此我們需要相應(yīng)的調(diào)整預(yù)期。不過,，我們保持對(duì)iPad 2銷量的預(yù)期，因?yàn)槲覀冋J(rèn)為iPad 2將加劇蘋果在平板電腦領(lǐng)域的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)勢(shì)頭,。

????摩根大通（JP Morgan）的馬克?莫斯科維奇：我們認(rèn)為iPad 2從里到外,，整體獲得了提升，蘋果即使不能因此擴(kuò)大在平板電腦市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì),，也至少能保住現(xiàn)有的地位。在我們看來,，iPad 2發(fā)布會(huì)最大的亮點(diǎn)在于，當(dāng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手接踵而至,，模仿第一代iPad 時(shí)，第二代iPad恰好降臨,，真是適當(dāng)其時(shí),。

????Morgan Keegan的特拉維斯?麥考特：總體而言，iPad 2的技術(shù)參數(shù)并不讓人驚艷,，不過我們?nèi)哉J(rèn)為其它廠商很難做出和iPad 2價(jià)格及功能差不多的10英寸平板電腦。我們同樣看到平板電腦的種類在不斷增加,，幾乎每家智能手機(jī)制造商都進(jìn)入了這塊市場(chǎng)。筆記本價(jià)值鏈看來顯然成了輸家,。

????美林（Merrill Lynch）的斯科特?克雷格：此次發(fā)布會(huì)最大的意外是史蒂夫?喬布斯的露面，自1月份起,，他的健康問題就一直被外界所關(guān)注。我們認(rèn)為這不會(huì)是導(dǎo)致蘋果股價(jià)大幅上升的催化劑事件,，但對(duì)投資者而言它可算是一顆定心丸?；谔O果的毛利率繼續(xù)上升；存在收入增長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì),；并且預(yù)期每股盈余以及估值會(huì)向上調(diào)整，我們認(rèn)為蘋果公司股票的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)率仍然很高,。我們對(duì)其維持“買入”評(píng)級(jí)。

????蒙特利爾銀行（BMO）的基思?巴赫曼：我們注意到iPad 1在上市后大概1個(gè)月里售出了100萬臺(tái)（僅在美國）,，不到2個(gè)月里售出了200萬臺(tái)。我們的檢查顯示,，量產(chǎn)始于2月份，不過產(chǎn)量不算太大,。因此，我們認(rèn)為iPad 2在3月份這一季度的出貨量將是50萬到100萬臺(tái),。

????Gleacher的布賴恩?馬歇爾：當(dāng)看到史蒂夫?喬布斯在iPad 2發(fā)布會(huì)上露面，我們非常驚訝。從我們看來,，比起上次在公開場(chǎng)合露面，他的狀況明顯好了很多（這顯示是件好事）,。重要的是，他并沒有搶走“主角”iPad 2的風(fēng)頭,，而iPad 2也沒讓我們失望。參加發(fā)布會(huì)之前,，我們并沒有升級(jí)第一代iPad 的沖動(dòng),，然而當(dāng)把玩過iPad 2后，我們的想法可能改變了,。

????USB的梅納德?尤姆：鑒于iPad 2的售價(jià)與功能，我們預(yù)計(jì)蘋果將在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益激烈的平板電腦市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)保持領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì),。iPad 2功能得到增強(qiáng)，但售價(jià)仍然維持在500-830美元區(qū)間[摩托羅拉（Motorola）的Xoom售價(jià)為800美元,，而相比之下蘋果iPad 2的售價(jià)僅730美元]。

????JMP的亞歷克斯?古納：雖然人們肯定會(huì)批評(píng)iPad 2不支持4G,，但當(dāng)初第一代iPhone上市時(shí)，蘋果就曾成功打消人們對(duì)其采用2.5G而非3G技術(shù)的疑慮,；況且3G網(wǎng)絡(luò)的數(shù)據(jù)傳輸速度已經(jīng)令人側(cè)目；而且蘋果過去的表現(xiàn)證明,，它總是在適當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)候推出適當(dāng)?shù)募夹g(shù),。我們認(rèn)為其他廠商在2011年不可能拿出能與iPad 2一爭(zhēng)高下的產(chǎn)品，尤其是在應(yīng)用程序領(lǐng)域,。所以我們將2011年iPad銷量的預(yù)測(cè)從2900萬部提高到3500萬部,，并認(rèn)為這一數(shù)字還有可能進(jìn)一步上升至4900萬部,。

????Stifel Nicolaus的道格?里德：總體而言，iPad 2發(fā)布會(huì)使我們確信,，對(duì)絕大部分消費(fèi)者而言,，相對(duì)于與其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的Android設(shè)備,，iPad 2無論在價(jià)格、性能還是外觀上都占據(jù)上風(fēng),。不過話雖如此，我們?nèi)哉J(rèn)為許多投資者都低估了用戶對(duì)平板電腦支持Adobe Flash的需求,，這一需求依然龐大，而iPad 2完全不能滿足它們,。

????Think Equities的拉杰什?蓋伊：雖然iPad 2厚度的減少，有助于其稍稍壓縮材料成本,，不過我們認(rèn)為制造成本的上升會(huì)將其抵消。iPad 2采用了不少新部件,，例如前后攝像頭,、更強(qiáng)勁的芯片和一些未公布的部件,，如擴(kuò)大容量的內(nèi)存等，這將會(huì)使成本增加,，不過采購數(shù)量大幅增長(zhǎng)將使得零部件供應(yīng)協(xié)議價(jià)有所下降,，從而使這些成本增長(zhǎng)被消化掉。我們提醒投資者注意,，蘋果最近與勝華科技（Wintek）和宸鴻科技（TPK）等供應(yīng)商達(dá)成協(xié)議，確?？刂屏巳蚪?0%的觸摸屏產(chǎn)能,。我們認(rèn)為這些新協(xié)議將會(huì)確保iPad 2的產(chǎn)能更好地滿足消費(fèi)者的需求，而且,，當(dāng)其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手想擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)能時(shí)，也會(huì)面對(duì)蘋果帶來的壓力,。

????Canaccord Genuity的T?麥克?沃克勒：我們認(rèn)為蘋果對(duì)iPad 2的定價(jià)（WiFi版499美元、3G版629美元）,，將給摩托羅拉 Xoom（599美元/799美元）和黑莓（BlackBerry）Playbook（預(yù)計(jì)499美元）等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性產(chǎn)品在銷售上造成壓力。由于iPad 2相比其它平板電腦的價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì),，我們相信消費(fèi)者將會(huì)一邊倒地選擇前者。

????Jeffries的皮特?米薩科：盡管許多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也發(fā)布了平板電腦,，不過我們認(rèn)為蘋果的產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位、垂直整合能力和廣闊的全球化布局將會(huì)力助其在平板電腦市場(chǎng)占據(jù)最大的市場(chǎng)份額,，并獲取最多的商業(yè)利益。我們認(rèn)為iPad 2的發(fā)布是個(gè)利好因素,，不過并未超出人們的預(yù)期。

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????A sampling of analysts' reactions to Apple's (AAPL) iPad 2 event. By midday Thursday we'd received 20 reports.

????Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner:The just unveiled iPad 2 offers the kind of incremental improvements consumers have come to expect from a second-generation Apple device. While it doesn't include any new breakthrough features or functionalities, the sum total of its refinements and upgrades—thinner, lighter, faster, more connected—significantly enhance the device's overall appeal. The closest historical parallel would be the iPhone G2.5 to 3G transition, whose slew of relatively minor upgrades allowed sales to more than triple in the product's second year. This is a sad day for the crowd of competitors still struggling to home in on the first iPad's price and performance. We continue to see Apple grabbing 75-85% of the tablet market in 2011.

????Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty:Although there were no big surprises today, following our hands on demo we think that the iPad 2 delivers dramatic performance improvements and an important reduction in thickness/weight improving the overall user experience. ... After using the original iPad over the last year, our iPad 2 demo revealed significantly faster webpage loading speeds and overall performance. Besides the performance improvements, iPad 2's reduction in thickness and weight should not be underestimated. The device is sleek - 33% thinner and 15% lighter than the original iPad (and vs. many 10" competitors) which has an important impact on the overall user experience.

????RBC's Mike Abramsky:Steve Jobs appearance from medical leave was a welcome surprise to the event (although he did not say whether or not he would return to Apple), while other announcements and iPad 2 features were largely inline... iPad 2 raises the bar and sustains pressure on competitors, and continues to target media-centric tablet consumers seeking a premium experience. iPad 2 doesn't alter competitive landscape for pending Android tablets or PlayBook, which may appeal to different market segments (like Android/Google fans, productivity-centric or enterprise segments).

????Needham's Charlie Wolf:Pad 2 immediately obsoletes a flood of media tablets that are finally beginning to appear a year after the iPad's introduction. Competitive tablets can emulate the hardware features of the iPad. But none can or probably never will match its software. Nor can they match its price.

????Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro:Our recently published supply-chain checks suggest total iPad builds of 6.9 mln-7.1 mln for CY1Q11 due to some seasonality and is comprised of only ~2 mln iPad1 units. This corroborates with a Digitimes article suggesting a build of 6 mln-6.5 mln iPads (including iPad2) in CY1Q11 and 40 mln for CY11. We anticipate a workdown of iPad1 inventory and a significant ramp-up in iPad production in CY2Q11 to 10 mln-12 mln units. Our March- and June-quarter iPad estimates call for 5.25 mln and 8.5 mln shipments, respectively.

????Barclay's Ben Reitzes:We view today's announcement as impressive and the early ship date, March 11, as a positive surprise that should provide upside support to C1Q iPad estimates. We also view Steve Jobs' appearance as a positive, but we focus on Apple's strong fundamentals and iPad supply chain builds of over 40 million units this year alone as key to the thesis moving forward. iPad 2 is impressive and should keep competitors at bay.

????Citigroup's Richard Gardner:On purely a hardware spec basis, the iPad 2 allows Apple to catch up or exceed competitors' current features (see fig.1). The most glaring criticisms had been the lack of front and rear facing cameras and a dual core processor, both of which have been resolved. The iPad 2 continues to lead in battery performance (+10 hours), and is now the thinnest and lightest 10" tablet in the market. In addition to the hardware, the iPad will be advantaged due to 1) an aggressive entry price of $499, which will be difficult to match given Apple's cost advantage, 2) its ability to attract developers (65,000 tablet-specific apps on iOS, vs. an insignificant number on other platforms), 3) Apple's impressive installed base of more than 200M accounts linked to credit cards, and 4) a seamless and intuitive user experience, which remains unmatched.

????Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore:We estimate the iOS installed base is 185M+ units (iPhone, iPad and iPod touch) with over $2B of App revenue earned by iOS developers to date. In addition, there are over 65K Apps specifically designed for the iPad (vs. ~100 Android Honeycomb Apps). We expect Apple's lead to extend as this installed base attracts even more developers, whose new Apps will attract even more users. In addition, we expect strong broad support (AT&T and Verizon) coupled with unmatched distribution (Apple retail stores, online, Best Buy, int'l etc) to propel strong growth of this device.

????Goldman Sachs' Bill Shope:We believe the iPad 2 introduction and the June iPhone refresh will serve as critical catalysts in the coming months. Our model had conservatively assumed that the company would lower wholesale ASPs, so we are adjusting our estimates to reflect the unchanged price points. We are maintaining our unit estimates due to our view that the iPad 2 will accelerate Apple's competitive momentum in tablets.

????JP Morgan's Mark Mosckowitz:We think the overall improvements, inside and out, should sustain, if not add to, the company's market leadership in tablets. In our view, what is suitably impressive with today's iPad 2 launch is the arrival of a second-generation iPad just as the competition is rolling out or prototyping their first-generation tablets.

????Morgan Keegan's Travis McCourt:Overall, there was nothing extremely surprising in terms of specs, and still believe that other vendors will have difficulty selling 10 inch tablets at similar price points and functionality as Apple. However, we still view the tablet category as incrementally positive for nearly every smartphone vendor adding this form factor. The laptop value chain appears to be the clear loser.

????Merrill Lynch's Scott Craig:What was not expected was the appearance of Steve Jobs whose health has been the subject of speculation since January. While we don't expect this to be a catalyst for the stock, we believe investors find it reassuring. We believe risk/reward remains favorable predicated on gross margin tailwinds, revenue growth opportunities, anticipated upward revisions to EPS and valuation. Maintain Buy.

????BMO's Keith Bachman:We note that the original iPad sold 1 million units in approximately 1 month of shipment (US only) and 2 million units in less than 2 months. Our checks indicate mass production started in February, but volumes are modest. Hence, we believe iPad 2 unit shipments for the March quarter could be in the 500K to 1 million unit range.

????Gleacher's Brian Marshall:While we were surprised by Steve Jobs' presence at the iPad 2 launch event, his appearance actually improved from his last public event, in our view (obviously a good thing). Importantly, he did not draw focus away from the main event ... the iPad 2 introduction ... which did not disappoint. Heading into the event, we had no intention of upgrading our gen 1 iPads, but after testing the new device, we may have changed our minds.

????USB's Maynard Um:Given price points/features, we expect AAPL to maintain leadership in the increasingly competitive tablet mkt. Note AAPL maintained price points between $500-830 despite improved features (Motorola's Xoom $800 unit compares to AAPL's $730 iPad 2).

????JMP's Alex Gauna:Although there will no doubt be criticism around the lack of 4G, we recall that the original iPhone shrugged off similar concerns over its 2.5G introduction, that 3G data speeds already rate as impressive, and that Apple has a strong track record of pushing the right technology envelops at the right pace. We know of no other, nor expect any other, tablet offering in 2011 to match the value proposition of the iPad2, particularly in the area of Apps, and subsequently we are raising our FY11 iPad estimate from 29M to 35M units while noting the potential for further upside towards 49M...

????Stifel Nicolaus's Doug Reid:Overall, we come away from the iPad 2 event convinced that for most consumers the iPad 2 will offer the most compelling value proposition relative to competing Android devices based on price, performance, and aesthetics. That said, we believe many investors underestimate current demand for Adobe Flash support on tablets which remains massive, and entirely unmet by the iPad 2.

????Think Equities' Rajesh Ghai:While the cost of material may decrease slightly with the slimmer form factor, we expect the increased manufacturing costs to offset the savings. The addition of new components such as the front and rear camera, as well as the more powerful chip and unannounced but likely increased memory will increase the cost of components, but new supply agreements at significantly larger volumes should offset these changes. We remind investors that Apple recently secured close to 60% of the global touch panel capacity through panel makers such as Wintek and TPK. We believe these new agreements will ensure that supply is able to more readily meet demand, as well as placing increased pressure on competitors attempting to ramp to production volumes.

????Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley:We believe that Apple's pricing of the iPad2 ($499 for WiFi-only, $629 for 3G base models) will pressure sales of competing offerings including the Motorola Xoom ($599/$799) and BlackBerry Playbook (expected $499) as we believe consumers will overwhelmingly choose iPad2 versus other tablets at these price points.

????Jeffries' Peter Misek:Despite the launches of many competitive tablets, we believe Apple's product leadership, vertical integration, and vast scale will cause it to win the largest share of the tablet market and the majority of the economic benefits. We believe that the announcement was positive, but broadly inline with expectations.