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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

三大被低估的科技股:谷歌,、蘋果和IBM

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月23日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,,就會相信他所說的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過,,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應該沒錯,。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司,。
同樣采用PEG指標,最被高估的3只科技股是亞馬遜,,思科系統(tǒng)和Netflix

日期: 納斯達克,。圖表:PED

????以下是一位讀者所建議的簡單演算:

????選取一只你感興趣的股票,計算其市盈率相對盈利增長比率,,該指標也常常被稱為PEG比率,。公式如下:

????Here's a simple exercise suggested by one of my readers.

????Take a stock you're interested in and calculate its price/earnings to growth ratio, better known as its PEG ratio. The formula looks like this:

????大力倡導PEG比率的彼得?林奇認為,,任何公司的市盈率如果合理,都會等于其盈利增長率,。換言之,,一只股票的PEG比率若低于1,該股可能被低估,。反之,,如果你購入的股票PEG高于1,你可能多付了錢,。

????那么,,蘋果(Apple)的PEG比率如何呢?根據(jù)納斯達克網(wǎng)站,,其PEG比率為0.73,,顯著低于1.0。該網(wǎng)站采用的是金融分析師們對未來12個月每股收益和盈利增長率預估的平均值,。唯一一只PEG比率更低的大型科技股是谷歌(Google),,為0.59。在估值區(qū)間的另一頭是亞馬遜(Amazon),、思科系統(tǒng)(Cisco)和Netflix,,12個月PEG比率分別為10.65、8.03和6.71,。

????好好想想吧,!

????According to Peter Lynch, who popularized the measure, the P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate. In other words, a stock with a PEG ratio less than one is probably undervalued. Conversely, if you're paying more than a PEG of 1.0 for a stock, you're probably paying too much.

????So what's Apple's (AAPL) PEG Ratio? According to NASDAQ's website, which uses the 12-month forecast earnings and growth rates of a consensus of financial analysts, it's 0.73, considerably less than 1.0. The only major tech stock with a lower PEG ratio is Google (GOOG) at 0.59. On the other end of the spectrum are Amazon (AMZN), Cisco (CSCO) and Netflix (NFLX) with 12-month PEG ratios of 10.65, 8.03 and 6.71, respectively.

????Go figure.

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