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專欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

iPad沖擊高清電視銷售

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月24日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
至少這是一位分析師的看法,,而理由則包括銷量數(shù)據(jù),、平均售價(jià)和高清電視貨架區(qū)的冷清

百思買(Best Buy)的高清電視貨架區(qū),。圖片來(lái)源:The Consumerist

????以蘋(píng)果(Apple) iPad為代表的平板電腦需求強(qiáng)勁,,不僅影響到了筆記本電腦的銷量,,現(xiàn)在還開(kāi)始波及高清電視市場(chǎng)。

????下面是市場(chǎng)研究公司Hudson Square Research的丹尼爾?恩斯特周三發(fā)布的一份研究報(bào)告概要,。證據(jù):

????? 他的每周調(diào)查顯示,,高清電視的單位平方英寸均價(jià)本月同比下降23.4%,跌幅高于2010年6月的18%,。

????? 他在拜訪門店時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)電視機(jī)貨架區(qū)門可羅雀,,而平板電腦和智能手機(jī)貨架區(qū)卻人頭攢動(dòng)。

????? 平面顯示產(chǎn)業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Display Search的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,2011年第一季度全球電視機(jī)總銷量?jī)H增長(zhǎng)0.9%,,大大低于2010年的17.4%。高清電視第一季度銷量同比增加8.9%,,也明顯低于2010年的30.9%,。

????恩斯特承認(rèn)電視機(jī)貨架區(qū)冷清部分原因可能是因?yàn)榈镜年P(guān)系,而日本巨災(zāi)和美國(guó)樓市疲弱也可能是原因之一,。

????這也合情合理,。新產(chǎn)品就是新產(chǎn)品,。如果消費(fèi)者能通過(guò)架在肚子上的一臺(tái)500美元的平板電腦高清觀看《每日秀》(The Daily Show)、《大地驚雷》(True Grit)或溫布爾登網(wǎng)球公開(kāi)賽,,可能就會(huì)覺(jué)得沒(méi)必要花費(fèi)3,000美元為客廳購(gòu)置一臺(tái)55英寸的電視機(jī),。

????Not only has strong demand for tablet computers -- led by Apple's (AAPL) iPad -- cut into notebook PC sales, but it has started to be felt in the market for high-definition televisions.

????That's the thrust of a note issued Wednesday by Hudson Square Research's Daniel Ernst. The evidence:

????? His weekly survey shows the average price per square inch of HDTVs down 23.4% year over year so far this month vs. the 18% decline he recorded in June 2010.

????? He's been checking the stores and observed "thin activity" in the TV aisles, compared with "strong activity" for tablets and smartphones.

????? Total worldwide TV unit sales were up only 0.9% in the first quarter of 2011, according to Display Search, vs. 17.4% in 2010. For HDTVs, first-quarter unit sales were up 8.9% year over year vs. 30.9% in 2010.

????Ernst acknowledges that the lack of activity in the TV aisles could be due in part to the time of year, and that the disaster in Japan and weak housing trends in the U.S. could also be factors.

????But it makes sense. A new gadget is a new gadget. And if you can watch The Daily Show or True Grit or Wimbledon in high-definition on a $500 tablet perched on your belly, you may not feel as compelled to spend $3,000 for a 55-inch TV set in your living room.

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