瞄準(zhǔn)9億中國(guó)手機(jī)用戶，蘋(píng)果有望打造奇跡
庫(kù)克（穿藍(lán)上衣者）出現(xiàn)在中國(guó)移動(dòng)總部,，圖片來(lái)源：M.I.C. Gadget
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????證券公司Ticonderoga Securities的首席蘋(píng)果（Apple）分析師布萊恩?懷特在自己的電腦里存了這樣一段文字： ????“我們認(rèn)為中國(guó)移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展將成為未來(lái)十年科技界的偉大奇跡之一，中國(guó)人顯然對(duì)蘋(píng)果非?？駸?，我們認(rèn)為隨著蘋(píng)果將合作對(duì)象擴(kuò)大到中國(guó)移動(dòng)（China Mobile）和中國(guó)電信（China Telecom），這種熱度一定還會(huì)繼續(xù)上升,?！?/p> ????上周四，懷特兩次引用了上面這段話,。 ????第一次是蘋(píng)果首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官蒂姆?庫(kù)克在中國(guó)移動(dòng)總部露面（照片很不清晰,，只有庫(kù)克的背影），懷特對(duì)此事發(fā)表評(píng)論,。中國(guó)移動(dòng)是世界最大的移動(dòng)電話運(yùn)營(yíng)商,，擁有6.11億無(wú)線用戶。（庫(kù)克的消息見(jiàn)鏈接,。） ????四個(gè)小時(shí)后,，懷特在轉(zhuǎn)載一篇報(bào)道時(shí)又引用了“偉大奇跡”。該報(bào)道稱，中國(guó)移動(dòng)的一名員工通過(guò)微博（即中國(guó)版的Twitter）稱,，中國(guó)移動(dòng)將于9月份發(fā)售iPhone 5,。到周五時(shí)，《上海日?qǐng)?bào)》（Shanghai Daily）和路透社（Reuters）都轉(zhuǎn)載了這篇報(bào)道,。 ????對(duì)于這些報(bào)道在十年后的重要意義,，懷特的判斷也許是正確的。但對(duì)于蘋(píng)果的投資者而言,，現(xiàn)在就開(kāi)始計(jì)算這幾億用戶未免為時(shí)太早,。 ????因?yàn)椋ㄐ艆f(xié)議是個(gè)大問(wèn)題,。 ????雖然蘋(píng)果在大中華區(qū)的業(yè)務(wù)正在蓬勃發(fā)展,，2011年上半年的銷(xiāo)售額已經(jīng)達(dá)到50億美元，而2010年全年才為30億美元,。不過(guò)在中國(guó)8.96億移動(dòng)用戶中,，蘋(píng)果僅僅占據(jù)了很小的份額。 ????首先,，中國(guó)有三家主要的運(yùn)營(yíng)商,，但蘋(píng)果僅和第二大運(yùn)營(yíng)商中國(guó)聯(lián)通（China Unicom）達(dá)成了合作協(xié)議；其次,，中國(guó)擁有近9億移動(dòng)用戶,，但只有7，400萬(wàn)用戶能夠使用3G網(wǎng)絡(luò),；最后,，中國(guó)移動(dòng)的3G網(wǎng)絡(luò)使用的是本土協(xié)議——TD-SCDMA，和蘋(píng)果目前的iPhone并不兼容,。懷特在上周四提議稱,，蘋(píng)果需要專門(mén)制作一款能在中國(guó)移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)上運(yùn)行的iPhone 5，而蘋(píng)果到目前為止還不大情愿這樣做,。 ????中國(guó)移動(dòng)已宣布,，一旦LTE（長(zhǎng)期演技技術(shù)）網(wǎng)絡(luò)準(zhǔn)備就緒，將發(fā)售蘋(píng)果4G iPhone,。不過(guò)具體時(shí)間尚不清楚,。 ????蒂姆?庫(kù)克上周在中國(guó)達(dá)成的一系列協(xié)議有朝一日可能會(huì)成為技術(shù)世界的偉大奇跡，但不大可能會(huì)是9月份,。 ????譯者：項(xiàng)航 |
????Brian White, Ticonderoga Securities' chief Apple (AAPL) analyst, has a boilerplate sentence stored on his computer that goes like this: ????"We believe the ramp of the mobile Internet in China will be one of the great wonders of the tech world over the next decade and the country has clearly caught "Apple fever" that we believe will only accelerate as the company expands it carrier base to include both China Mobile and China Telecom." ????White used his "great wonder of the tech world" sentence twice on Thursday. ????Once when he commented on COO Tim Cook's appearance (and a blurry photograph of his back) in the headquarters of China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest mobile phone company with 611 million wireless subscribers. (See here.) ????And again, four hours later, when he passed along a report that one of China Mobile's employees had posted a weibo message (a Chinese tweet) indicating that China Mobile will begin selling the iPhone 5 in September -- a report that by Friday had made its way to the Shanghai Daily and the Reuters wire. ????White may be right about the significance of these reports over the next decade, but it's too soon for Apple investors to start counting those hundreds of million subscribers. ????It's a question of protocols. ????Although business in greater China has been booming for Apple -- $5 billion in sales in the first six months of fiscal 2011 versus $3 billion in all of 2010 -- the company has access to only a small fraction of China's 896 million mobile wireless subscribers. ????Of China's three largest carriers, Apple has a deal with only one -- China Unicom (CHU), the country's second largest. And of China's nearly 900 million subscribers, only 74 million have access to 3G networks. Finally, China Mobile's 3G network uses a home-grown protocol -- TD-SCDMA -- that is incompatible with Apple's current generation of iPhones. On Thursday, White suggested that Apple would have to build a special version of the iPhone 5 to work on China Mobile's network, something it has so far been reluctant to do. ????China Mobile has already announced that it will carry Apple's 4G iPhones when a LTE (long-term evolution) version is ready. When that happens is anybody's guess. ????So the deals Tim Cook was making in China this week may someday take their place among the great wonders of the tech world. But probably not by September. |
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