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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果第三財季iPhone銷量大猜想

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年07月15日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司,。
蘋果上個季度到底賣出多少臺iPhone?分析人士們的估算各不相同,。保守的認為賣了1,,500萬臺,樂觀的認為賣了2,,025萬臺,。平均估計值為1,690萬臺,。

來源:公司報告,,蘋果2.0

????對于蘋果公司來說,,沒有任何一款產(chǎn)品對公司業(yè)績的貢獻率能超過iPhone。

????在今年三月份結(jié)束的第二財度里,,蘋果共售出1,,865萬臺iPhone,iPhone及其周邊產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)共為蘋果創(chuàng)造了1,,230億美元的營業(yè)收入,,差不多正好占了蘋果公司該季度總銷售額的50%——比Mac、iPod和iPad的總和還要多,。

????蘋果將于下周公布第三季度財報,,每個關(guān)注蘋果公司的人——無論是其最堅定的投資人,還是最直接的競爭對手,,都會格外關(guān)注上季度蘋果究竟賣出了多少臺iPhone.

????我們調(diào)查的39位分析人士的預測值有的高有的低,。其中最高的是羅馬尼亞數(shù)學家尼古拉?米哈拉奇在科技博客Traderhood上發(fā)布的預測,米哈拉奇在巴黎大學執(zhí)教,,他的預測數(shù)據(jù)往往比較樂觀,;最低的預測來自投資和資產(chǎn)管理公司尼達姆(Needham)的分析師查理?沃爾夫,他是一名研究蘋果的老手,,預測往往趨于保守,。

????這39位分析人士的預測平均值為1,690萬臺,,這表明iPhone的銷量相比去年同一季度上漲了101%,,這也預示著在過去四年里,蘋果已經(jīng)總共賣出了超過1.25億臺iPhone,。

????這39位分析師包括14位業(yè)余分析師和25名專業(yè)人士,。本季度他們的平均預測要比上幾個季度更加接近。14位業(yè)余分析師的平均預測值為1,,780萬臺,,而專業(yè)分析師們的平均預測值為1,,640萬臺。蘋果的收入報告下周二就會公布,,屆時我們就能看出誰預測得更準確,。

????以下謹為大家列出到目前為止我們收集到的預測值及期日期?!癚2排名”一欄則顯示了上季度每位分析師的預測值有多準確(數(shù)值越低表示預測越準確),。

????【更新:自從本文發(fā)表后,又有三位分析師公布了本季度iPhone的銷量預測,,他們是:私募投資公司W(wǎng)edbush的斯科特?薩瑟蘭(1,,865萬臺),瑞銀(UBS)的梅納德?烏姆(1,,835萬臺)和花旗銀行的理查德?加德納(1,,800萬臺)。這樣一來,,華爾街專業(yè)分析師們的平均值就被抬高到1,,660萬臺,總體平均預測值也突過了1,,700萬臺大關(guān),。】

????No product contributes more to Apple's (AAPL) bottom line than the iPhone.

????In the 2nd fiscal quarter that ended in March, when the company sold a record 18.65 million units, the iPhone and related products and services generated $12.3 billion in revenue, almost exactly 50% of Apple's total sales for the quarter -- more than the Mac, iPod and iPad combined.

????So when Apple reports its 3rd quarter earnings next week, everybody who follows the company -- from its most steadfast investors to its fiercest competitors -- will be paying particular attention to how many iPhones it sold.

????The estimates of the 39 analysts we polled for our quarterly earnings smackdown were all over the lot, from a high of 20.25 million from Traderhood's Nicolae Mihalache, a Romanian mathematician who teaches at the University of Paris and tends to overestimate, to 15 million from Needham's Charlie Wolf, a veteran Apple hand who tends to come in low.

????The average all the estimates, 16.9 million, represents a 101% increase over the same quarter last year, and would bring the total number of iPhones sold over the past four years to more than 125 million.

????The 39 analysts in our survey included 14 amateurs and 25 professionals. Their average estimates were closer than in past quarters. Among the amateurs it was 17.8 million. Among the pros, 16.4 million. We'll find out whose estimates were closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings next Tuesday.

????Below: The estimates we've gathered so far and the dates they were submitted. The Q2 rank numbers show how accurate each analyst's estimates were last quarter (the lower the better).

????[UPDATE: Three more analysts have come in with iPhone numbers since this was posted: Wedbush's Scott Sutherland (18.65 million), UBS's Maynard Um (18.35) and CitiGroup's Richard Gardner (18 million). That brings the Wall Street consensus up to 16.6 million and puts the overall average above the 17 million mark.]

Analyst, affiliation

iPhones (millions)

Date of est.

Q2 rank

Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood

20.25

6/24/11

16

Dennis Hildebrand, Apple's Gold

18.90

6/24/11

12

Chas McKenna, Apple Finance Board

18.40

6/17/11

9

Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board

18.10

5/9/11

13

Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board

18.06

7/2/11

10

Corey Forsberg, Apple Finance Board

18.00

7/2/11

NA

Robert Paul Leitao, Posts At Eventide

18.00

6/25/11

6

Ralph Schackart, William Blair

18.00

6/7/11

44

Luke Kittell, Apple Finance Board

17.80

6/24/11

8

Daniel Tello, Deagol's AAPL Model

17.60

7/1/11

4

Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan

17.58

7/5/11

23

Brian White, Ticonderoga

17.53

7/12/11

39

Navin Nagrani, Apple Finance Board

17.50

6/26/11

NA

Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist

17.15

6/17/11

7

Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.

17.10

4/21/11

22

Adam Thompson, Apple Finance Board

17.03

7/3/11

11

Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross

17.00

6/22/11

2

Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank

17.00

7/5/11

37

Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan

17.00

6/28/11

20

Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee

17.00

7/6/11

29

Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square

17.00

7/11/11

46

Keith Bachman, BMO Capital

16.70

7/11/11

NA

T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity

16.50

7/5/11

35

Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.

16.50

7/5/11

26

Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley

16.50

6/26/11

34

Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna

16.44

6/7/11

21

Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital

16.40

6/28/11

41

Peter Misek, Jeffries

16.30

7/7/11

27

Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch

16.15

6/7/11

24

Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs

16.05

7/6/11

48

James Cordwell, Atlantic Equities

16.00

7/6/11

NA

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray

16.00

7/5/11

40

Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.

15.96

7/8/11

33

Robert Cihra, Caris

15.80

7/11/11

17

Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research

15.70

6/28/11

15

Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital

15.50

6/29/11

18

Horace Dediu, Asymco

15.10

6/26/11

5

Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights

15.10

7/7/11

14

Charlie Wolf, Needham

15.00

6/28/11

36

????譯者:樸成奎

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