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專欄 - 從華爾街到硅谷

美國信用評(píng)級(jí)標(biāo)普穆迪有分歧

Dan Primack 2011年08月10日

Dan Primack專注于報(bào)道交易和交易撮合者,,從美國金融業(yè)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資業(yè)均有涉及。此前,,Dan是湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由編輯,,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire郵件服務(wù)。作為一名新聞工作者,,Dan還曾在美國馬薩諸塞州羅克斯伯里經(jīng)營(yíng)一份社區(qū)報(bào)紙,。目前他居住在波士頓附近。
標(biāo)普和穆迪在美國信用評(píng)級(jí)上產(chǎn)生了分歧,。這次分歧是否反常,?

????標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor's)上周五猛烈抨擊了美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治體系,有史以來首次降低了美國的AAA評(píng)級(jí),。標(biāo)普的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手穆迪(Moody’s)對(duì)此持有異議,,它仍堅(jiān)持美國的Aaa評(píng)級(jí),不過同時(shí)也把美國的信用展望下調(diào)至“負(fù)面”,。

????兩大評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)在美債評(píng)級(jí)上產(chǎn)生分歧后,,一些分析師迅速跳出來大做文章,,許多人更試圖否定標(biāo)普的結(jié)論。但《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)經(jīng)回顧發(fā)現(xiàn),,標(biāo)普和穆迪其實(shí)經(jīng)常在主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí)上產(chǎn)生分歧,。

????在對(duì)全球GDP最高的15個(gè)國家的評(píng)級(jí)上,標(biāo)普和穆迪只對(duì)10個(gè)國家的評(píng)級(jí)保持一致,,而在其余五國的評(píng)級(jí)上存在分歧(包括美國),。

????其中,他們對(duì)日本,、巴西和墨西哥三國的評(píng)級(jí)只是稍有分歧,。例如標(biāo)普對(duì)日本的評(píng)級(jí)是AA-,而穆迪的評(píng)級(jí)則是Aa2,。正常來說,,按照兩家評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)各自的評(píng)級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),如果他們的評(píng)級(jí)一致,,結(jié)果應(yīng)該顯示為AA-對(duì)Aa3,,或是AA對(duì)Aa2.

????除了美國之外,意大利是另一個(gè)讓標(biāo)普和穆迪產(chǎn)生重大分歧的國家,,兩機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)該國的評(píng)級(jí)整整差了一級(jí),。標(biāo)普將意大利評(píng)為A+,而穆迪將其評(píng)為Aa2,。穆迪現(xiàn)在正在對(duì)日本和意大利進(jìn)行審查,,有可能對(duì)他們進(jìn)行信用降級(jí)。

????譯者:樸成奎

????Standard & Poor's on Friday night slammed the U.S. economy and its political system, lowering the nation's AAA credit rating for the first time in history. Rival credit rating agency Moody's dissented, reaffirming its Aaa rating while placing the country on negative credit watch.

????Some analysts have been making hay of the discrepancy, particularly as a way to delegitimize S&P's decision. But a review by Fortune shows that the two agencies regularly disagree over sovereign credit ratings.

????When it comes to rating the 15 nations with the highest GDP, S&P and Moody's only sync up 66% of the time. For five countries, including the U.S., they do not.

????Three of the disputed sovereigns -- Japan, Brasil and Mexico -- differ only slightly. Japan, for example, is rated AA- by S&P and Aa2 by Moody's. A perfect match would be AA- and Aa3, or AA and Aa2.

????Italy is the only country other than the U.S. to have an entire category differential, with S&P rating it A+ and Moody's rating it Aa2. Both Japan and Italy currently are under review by Moody's for possible credit rating downgrades.

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