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????如今,，蘋果（Apple）和谷歌（Google）Android系統(tǒng)專利大戰(zhàn)的戰(zhàn)火已經(jīng)在世界各地點(diǎn)燃，德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯?惠特莫爾在周一發(fā)布的致客戶報(bào)告中對(duì)這場(chǎng)紛爭的戰(zhàn)果給出了四種預(yù)測(cè)。

????1) 雙方和解,，蘋果獲得單位許可費(fèi),；

????2) （對(duì)蘋果）更有利的結(jié)果是，蘋果得以遏制Android的各項(xiàng)功能以及/或分銷能力,，并搶占Android未來市場(chǎng)份額的25%,；

????3) 雙方打成平手；以及

????4) 蘋果敗訴,，必須支付反索賠費(fèi)用

????惠特莫爾肯定認(rèn)為出現(xiàn)第3種與第4種結(jié)果的可能性很小,，因?yàn)樗S后通篇都在計(jì)算第1種和第2種結(jié)果能為蘋果公司股東帶來的價(jià)值。

????結(jié)果1——雙方和解,，蘋果出售知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán),，每部Android設(shè)備收取大約10美元。根據(jù)惠特莫爾的計(jì)算,，這個(gè)方案大概能使蘋果的股價(jià)上漲35美元,。

????結(jié)果2——Android大量功能或分銷能力遭到削弱，這比第1種結(jié)果的可能性要低得多,，但它可能給蘋果帶來巨大的回報(bào),。比如說，若蘋果獲得未來預(yù)期Android市場(chǎng)的25%,，惠特莫爾預(yù)計(jì)蘋果的股價(jià)可能上漲260美元之多,。

????因此，他總結(jié)說：“我們懷疑蘋果不可能輕易和解,?！?/p>

????惠特莫爾表示，與此同時(shí),，蘋果投資者應(yīng)該按兵不動(dòng),。他們“幾乎不用投入什么成本，就可能從這場(chǎng)專利戰(zhàn)中收獲非常豐厚的戰(zhàn)果,，可謂坐享其成,。”

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????In a note to clients issued Monday, Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore lists four possible outcomes of the patent wars being fought in courts around the world between Apple (AAPL) and the Google (GOOG) Android ecosystem:

????1) settlement with per unit license fee paid to Apple;

????2) a more favorable outcome where Apple handicaps Android's feature set and/or distribution and captures 25% of Android's future market share;

????3) neutral with no winner; and

????4) Apple loses and must pay a counter claim

????Whitmore must not consider outcomes 3 and 4 very likely because he spends the rest of the note trying to calculate the value to Apple shareholders of outcomes 1 and 2.

????Outcome 1 -- a settlement where Apple licenses its intellectual property for about $10 per Android device sold --could add, according to Whitmore's calculations, roughly $35 to Apple's share price.

????Outcome 2 -- where Android's feature set or ability to distribute is diminished -- is considerably less likely, but the payoff could be enormous. If Apple were to capture 25% of the future anticipated Android market, for example, Whitmore estimates that Apple's share price could grow by roughly $260 per share.

????"As a result," he concludes, "we suspect Apple is unlikely to settle cheaply."

????Apple investors, meanwhile, should sit tight, according to Whitmore. They are "gaining exposure to a potentially very lucrative favorable IP outcome for little or no cost."