蘋(píng)果是曇花一現(xiàn)還是商界常青樹(shù),？
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????數(shù)周來(lái),，投資者、分析師和商業(yè)歷史學(xué)者們一直“掙扎”于蘋(píng)果（Apple）的最新財(cái)報(bào),。他們都試圖解開(kāi)一個(gè)謎題：一家巨無(wú)霸企業(yè)（市值4,871億美元）為什么還能像新創(chuàng)企業(yè)一樣繼續(xù)保持飛速成長(zhǎng)（蘋(píng)果第一季度營(yíng)收同比增長(zhǎng)115.7%）,。 ????去年11月，蘋(píng)果果斷拋開(kāi)?？松梨冢‥xxon Mobil）,，登上世界市值最高公司的寶座,。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾分析師霍華德?希爾沃布拉特稱，蘋(píng)果是自1926年以來(lái),，第11家有幸坐上這一寶座的公司,。 ????希爾沃布拉特的本能反應(yīng)和許多跟進(jìn)蘋(píng)果的分析師一樣：將蘋(píng)果看成一個(gè)特例、一個(gè)暫時(shí)扭曲了現(xiàn)有金融模式的異類,。所以他在巴倫周刊（Barron's）的數(shù)據(jù)表中,，選擇將蘋(píng)果排除在外： ????? 去年，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)上漲1.55%,，不過(guò)去掉蘋(píng)果后,，漲幅僅為0.47%。 ????? 從年初至今,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)上漲了8.24%,，但去掉蘋(píng)果后，漲幅僅為7.7%,。 ????? 從2007年10月至今,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500科技股指數(shù)上漲了9.81%，但在去掉蘋(píng)果后,，竟然下跌了4.1%,。 ????希爾沃布拉特的觀點(diǎn)是：如果剔除蘋(píng)果，整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇實(shí)際并不樂(lè)觀,。 ????不過(guò),，如果希爾沃布拉特之流反過(guò)來(lái)想想呢？蘋(píng)果,，也許并不是個(gè)例外，它可能預(yù)示著商業(yè)世界一個(gè)新王朝的開(kāi)始,。 ????上周,，科技博客Asymco的作者賀拉斯?德迪歐在《關(guān)鍵路徑》（The Critical Path）播客上發(fā)布了新內(nèi)容，其中三分之二的篇幅都在談?wù)撋鲜鰡?wèn)題,。 ????德迪歐表示,，之前的市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，比如通用汽車（GM）和IBM,，沒(méi)有彌補(bǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中其它（公司）的不足,。他們是他們那個(gè)時(shí)代的增長(zhǎng)引擎，他們重塑了我們對(duì)營(yíng)銷和生產(chǎn)率的看法,，改變了整個(gè)行業(yè)的業(yè)務(wù)流程,。他說(shuō)，蘋(píng)果正在發(fā)揮類似的影響…… ????蘋(píng)果正在告訴整個(gè)世界,，怎樣才能打造一家出色的公司,，而且蘋(píng)果用了一種引人注目,、甚至是令人眩目的方式來(lái)做這件事。 ????一旦他們衰退,，我們會(huì)回到老樣子,，這話說(shuō)來(lái)輕松。但我們?cè)僖不夭蝗チ恕?/p> ????蘋(píng)果今天教給我們的東西,，幾年內(nèi)人人都會(huì)學(xué)到手,。這些東西包括我提到的制造方面，生態(tài)系統(tǒng)方面,，品牌方面,，創(chuàng)新方面，以及自我吞噬的過(guò)程…… ????蘋(píng)果并不是規(guī)則之外的特例,，它是在重新定義規(guī)則,。 ????這個(gè)論點(diǎn)很吸引人，值得全面跟進(jìn),。讀者朋友可以登錄丹?本杰明的5by5播客網(wǎng)絡(luò),，收聽(tīng)他的觀點(diǎn)。《關(guān)鍵路徑》,，第26集：時(shí)代精神——從41:15秒開(kāi)始,。 ????譯者: 項(xiàng)航 |
????Investors, analysts and business historians have been struggling in the weeks since Apple's (AAPL) most recent earnings report to make sense of this corporate oddity: a mega-cap company ($487.1 billion) that grows like a start-up (first quarter earnings up 115.7%). ????Since November, when it pulled decisively away from Exxon Mobil (XOM), Apple has been the world's biggest company by market capitalization -- only the 11th since 1926 to achieve the top spot, according to Howard Silverblatt of Standard & Poor's. ????Silverblatt's first instinct -- like that of many analysts who follow the company -- is to treat Apple as an exception, an anomaly that has temporarily distorted their financial models. So he pulls Apple out of his spreadsheets to point out via Barron's that: ????? The S&P 500 is up 1.55% over the last year, but would only be up 0.47% without Apple. ????? The S&P 500 is up 8.24% year-to-date, but would be up 7.7% without it. ????? The S&P 500 technology sector is up 9.81% since October 2007, but without Apple it is actually down 4.1%. ????Silverblatt's point is that without Apple, the economic recovery wouldn't look so rosy. ????But what if Silverblatt and the others have it backward? What if Apple, rather than being the exception, is the rule that defines a new era in business? ????That's the question Asymco's Horace Dediu tackles about two thirds of the way through last week's episode of his The Critical Path podcast. ????Previous market leaders, like GM (GM) and IBM (IBM), he argues, were not there to make up for the deficiencies of the rest of the economy. They were the engines of growth for their era, redefining our ideas about marketing and productivity and changing business processes across whole industries. Similarly, he says... ????Apple is teaching the world how to be a good company, and they're doing it in a spectacular way -- it's almost blinding. ????It's easy to say well, once they fade, we'll go back. But we'll never go back. ????What Apple teaches us today, everyone will do the same thing in a few years. And that includes what I talked about in terms of manufacturing, in terms of ecosystems, in terms of brands, in terms of innovation and the process of self-cannibalization... ????It's not that Apple is the exception to the rule, it's that Apple is redefining what the rule is. ????It's a fascinating argument, worth following in full. You can get it on Dan Benjamin's 5by5 podcast network -- The Critical Path, Episode 26: Zeitgeist -- starting at the 41:15 mark. |
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