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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

華爾街90天內(nèi)調(diào)高蘋果收益估值24.4%

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年03月31日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
即使每股高達(dá)600美元,,但蘋果公司的股價(jià)似乎依然不正常,。

????蘋果公司(Apple)的第二財(cái)季截止到周六,,雖然其股價(jià)的銳氣在周五早上遭到市場(chǎng)打壓(蘋果股價(jià)在早上十點(diǎn)左右回落到600美元以下),但華爾街仍然看好這家由蒂姆?庫(kù)克執(zhí)掌的公司,。

????我們?nèi)绾蔚贸鲞@一判斷,?因?yàn)楦鶕?jù)我們的觀察,過(guò)去的90天里,分析師對(duì)蘋果公司第二財(cái)季收益的估值調(diào)高了逾24%,。分析人士對(duì)其每股收益的估值從3個(gè)月前的7.86美元調(diào)高至了如今的9.78美元(然而,,在我們的獨(dú)立分析師小組看來(lái),這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)依然偏低,。他們一致認(rèn)為,,蘋果第二財(cái)季的每股收益將超過(guò)12.50美元)。

????相比之下,,華爾街在同一時(shí)期對(duì)于包括亞馬遜(Amazon)到谷歌(Google)在內(nèi)的其他技術(shù)股的收益估值卻一直在下降,。他們對(duì)亞馬遜公司每股收益的估值下調(diào)得尤為劇烈,在過(guò)去3個(gè)月間下調(diào)了80%以上,。

????然而,,在古怪的股市世界里,亞馬遜公司依然被授予近150倍的歷史市盈率(蘋果公司的歷史市盈率僅為17倍),,意味著市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為亞馬遜公司的價(jià)值比蘋果公司高出8倍以上,。見(jiàn)下圖。

??? 譯者:任文科

????Apple's (AAPL) second fiscal quarter ends Saturday, and although the market spent Friday morning knocking the stuffing out of its share price (Apple fell back below $600 in mid-morning trading), Wall Street remains bullish on Tim Cook's company.

????How do we know? We've watched the analysts' Q2 estimates for Apple climb more than 24% in the past 90 days -- from an EPS of $7.86 three months ago to $9.78 today. (Even that's low, according to our panel of independent analysts; their consensus is calling for Q2 earnings of more than $12.50.)

????By contrast, the Street's estimates for the rest of the stocks in the tech sector -- from Amazon (AMZN) to Google (GOOG) -- have been falling over the same period. Amazon's EPS estimates have been particularly hard hit, down more than 80% over the the past three months.

????In the bizzarro world of the equities market, however, Amazon is still rewarded with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 150 to Apple's 17, meaning AMZN is perceived as more than eight times more valuable than AAPL. See chart below.

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