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專(zhuān)欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

中國(guó)移動(dòng)用戶(hù)能不能用上iPhone 5

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年09月11日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周?chē)且黄艾F(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶(hù)中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿(mǎn)缽滿(mǎn),。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
6.55億中國(guó)移動(dòng)用戶(hù)拭目以待,。新一代iPhone能否兼容中國(guó)移動(dòng)的LTE網(wǎng)絡(luò),?這個(gè)問(wèn)題至關(guān)重要,因?yàn)樗苯記Q定蘋(píng)果能否打破持續(xù)四年之久的僵局,,和中國(guó)移動(dòng)成功牽手。而答案取決于蘋(píng)果將采用哪種芯片,。

????
中國(guó)用戶(hù)瘋狂追求iPhone 4S,。
圖片來(lái)源:Photo: MIC Gadget
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????上周五,《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)一如往常,,援引來(lái)自匿名“消息靈通人士”的說(shuō)法稱(chēng),,蘋(píng)果(Apple)將于下周發(fā)布的新款iPhone有望支持歐洲和亞洲制式的最高速無(wú)線4G LTE網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

????這確實(shí)是個(gè)新聞,,因?yàn)槟壳暗腖TE(長(zhǎng)期演進(jìn)技術(shù))網(wǎng)絡(luò)至少有40種之多,,第一款支持LTE的蘋(píng)果設(shè)備是去年3月發(fā)布的全新iPad,不過(guò)它僅支持美國(guó)和加拿大運(yùn)營(yíng)商的LTE網(wǎng)絡(luò),。

????不過(guò),,《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》的線人并未透露iPhone 5的LTE解調(diào)器是否兼容世界最大的運(yùn)營(yíng)商——中國(guó)移動(dòng)(China Mobile)。中國(guó)移動(dòng)擁有6.55億移動(dòng)用戶(hù),,是威瑞森無(wú)線(Verizon Wireless)和美國(guó)電話電報(bào)移動(dòng)公司(AT&T Mobility)兩者用戶(hù)數(shù)之和的三倍,。這個(gè)問(wèn)題至關(guān)重要,,因?yàn)樗苯記Q定蘋(píng)果能否打破持續(xù)四年之久的僵局,和中國(guó)移動(dòng)成功牽手,。

????答案取決于蘋(píng)果將采用哪種芯片,。目前市面上已有數(shù)款芯片能夠做到這點(diǎn),而高通(Qualcomm)也已制造該產(chǎn)品一年有余,。如果新款iPhone選擇其中一款芯片,,那么它在全球最大手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的目標(biāo)用戶(hù)群可以一舉擴(kuò)大兩倍。

????但這并不意味著6.55億中國(guó)移動(dòng)用戶(hù)都可以享受到高速4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)——至少不是馬上就可以,。雖然中國(guó)移動(dòng)擁有中國(guó)70%的市場(chǎng)份額,,但其高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建設(shè)速度非常緩慢。大部分用戶(hù)仍在使用2G網(wǎng)絡(luò),,只有不到20%的用戶(hù)升級(jí)到了3G,。盡管中國(guó)移動(dòng)已開(kāi)始試點(diǎn)4G,不過(guò)截止到今年5月,,參與試點(diǎn)的城市只有6個(gè),。

????不過(guò)這一切都無(wú)關(guān)緊要。中國(guó)用戶(hù)非常喜歡手機(jī),,他們總是迫不及待地更新?lián)Q代,,拿到最新款。今年1月,,iPhone 4S在北京首發(fā)時(shí),,壓倒性的需求曾迫使蘋(píng)果不得不終止銷(xiāo)售,而這種需求主要是受到了黃牛黨的推動(dòng),,他們忙著搶購(gòu)iPhone,,然后轉(zhuǎn)手賣(mài)給中國(guó)移動(dòng)的用戶(hù)。今年初,,中國(guó)移動(dòng)宣布,,其iPhone用戶(hù)數(shù)已達(dá)到1,200萬(wàn)。雖然蘋(píng)果并未和中國(guó)移動(dòng)簽約,,而iPhone也不支持中移動(dòng)的3G網(wǎng)絡(luò),,但眾多用戶(hù)仍心甘情愿地使用蝸牛般的2G網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????The Wall Street Journal, quoting the usual unnamed "people familiar with the matter," reported Friday that the new iPhone that Apple (AAPL) is expected to unveil next week will work on the fastest wireless 4G LTE networks in Europe and Asia.

????That's news because there are at least three dozen flavors of LTE (for long-term evolution), and the first Apple device to support the technology, the new iPad introduced last March, was only compatible with the bands used by U.S. and Canadian carriers.

????What the Journal's sources didn't say is whether the iPhone 5's LTE modem is compatible with the biggest carrier of them all: China Mobile (CHL), with 655 million wireless subscribers -- three times as many as Verizon Wireless (VZ) and AT&T Mobility (T) combined.

????It's a critical question -- one that could break the impasse that has prevented Apple from signing a contract with China Mobile for more than four years.

????The answer depends on which chipset Apple has decided to use. There are several on the market that will do the trick; Qualcomm (QCOM) has been making them for more than a year (seehere). If the new iPhone uses one of them, it could triple its addressable user base in the world's largest mobile phone market.

????Not that those 655 million subscribers will get to enjoy those 4G speeds -- at least not at first. Although China Mobile controls 70% of the Chinese mobile market, it has been slow to deploy the faster network protocols. The lion's share of its network is still running at 2G speeds; less than 20% has been upgraded to 3G. And although it has begun testing 4G hotspots, as of last May they were up and running in only six Chinese cities.

????But it almost doesn't matter. The Chinese love their cell phones, and they like to have the latest model. The crushing demand for the iPhone 4S that forced Apple to shut down sales in Beijing last January was fueled largely by scalpers snapping them up for resale to China Mobile users. Earlier this year, the carrier announced that even without a contract with Apple -- or an iPhone that could communicate with its home-grown 3G protocol -- there were already 12 million iPhones on its network running at sluggish 2G speeds.

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