業(yè)界熱議iPhone 5中國(guó)首發(fā)銷(xiāo)量破紀(jì)錄
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????上周五,，瑞銀集團(tuán)（UBS）的史蒂芬·米盧諾維奇寫(xiě)道：“（他的）一些中國(guó)線人認(rèn)為，iPhone 5的銷(xiāo)量將不及iPhone 4S,?！眱商旌螅ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)（Citigroup）的格倫·楊寫(xiě)道,，供應(yīng)鏈訂單削減的報(bào)道“令人質(zhì)疑iPhone 5的實(shí)力”,。 ????在此之后，蘋(píng)果（Apple）宣布上周末在中國(guó)大陸售出超過(guò)200萬(wàn)部iPhone 5,，超過(guò)此前iPhone在中國(guó)上市的銷(xiāo)量——包括2012年1月在中國(guó)首發(fā)當(dāng)日引發(fā)騷亂的iPhone 4S,。 ????本周一，大多數(shù)跟蹤蘋(píng)果公司的分析師都改變了論調(diào),。他們發(fā)給客戶的報(bào)告摘錄如下：（最新的排在上面） ????加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）的阿米特·德萊納里：iPhone 5售出200萬(wàn)部,。“這個(gè)數(shù)字創(chuàng)下了在中國(guó)首發(fā)周末的銷(xiāo)量記錄，而蘋(píng)果公司在今年年底前還將陸續(xù)登陸100個(gè)國(guó)家,。在我看來(lái),，這是一個(gè)利好,，因?yàn)樵摴纠^續(xù)超過(guò)此前的iPhone 4S發(fā)售業(yè)績(jī)，為第四季度的出色表現(xiàn)蓄勢(shì)……鑒于中國(guó)的智能手機(jī)銷(xiāo)售基礎(chǔ)較小,，我們認(rèn)為這次創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的銷(xiāo)量對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司而言是個(gè)利好,。特別是此增長(zhǎng)不包括擁有約7億用戶、7,560萬(wàn)3G客戶的世界第一大移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商中國(guó)移動(dòng)（China Mobile）,。我們此前曾經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè),，若與中國(guó)移動(dòng)達(dá)成合作，中國(guó)移動(dòng)頭一年將售出1,000萬(wàn)到16,00萬(wàn)部iPhone,，這將使蘋(píng)果的每股利潤(rùn)增加約3美元,，股價(jià)上漲約45美元?！?/p> ????投資銀行Piper Jaffray的吉恩·蒙斯特：需求依然強(qiáng)勁,，推出低價(jià)機(jī)型不可避免。“鑒于過(guò)去一周?chē)@蘋(píng)果的種種消息,，我們認(rèn)為主要有三點(diǎn)需注意,。首先，根據(jù)我們?cè)诿绹?guó)的研究,，以及上周末iPhone 5在中國(guó)售出200萬(wàn)部這一事實(shí),，我們相信對(duì)iPhone的需求依然強(qiáng)勁。其次,，對(duì)于iPhone在2013年的表現(xiàn),，我們無(wú)意修改此前的預(yù)測(cè)。在新款iPhone發(fā)布后的一個(gè)季度里,，供應(yīng)商削減產(chǎn)量乃是常事,。盡管有些供應(yīng)商稱(chēng)三月份季度產(chǎn)量環(huán)比將下降20-30%，很難判斷渠道中本身有多少庫(kù)存,，因此難以對(duì)三月份的產(chǎn)量做出假設(shè),。第三，我們最獨(dú)特的看法在于,，我們認(rèn)為圍繞iPhone產(chǎn)量的種種猜測(cè)恰恰表明蘋(píng)果需要推出針對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的,、定價(jià)較低的機(jī)型。我們預(yù)計(jì)該設(shè)備最遲將在2014年面世,。 |
????On Friday, UBS's Steven Milunovich wrote that "some of [his] Chinese sources do not expect the iPhone 5 to do as well as the iPhone 4S." Two days later,?Citigroup's Glen Yeung wrote that reports of supply-chain order cuts "bring into question the strength of iPhone 5." ????That was before Apple (AAPL) announced that it sold more than 2 million iPhone 5s in mainland China last weekend, beating?its previous Chinese iPhone releases -- including?the iPhone 4S that triggered launch-day riots last January. ????On Monday, most of the analysts who cover the company were singing a different tune. Excerpts from their notes to clients below: (New ones on top) ????RBC's?Amit Daryanani:?Two Million iPhone 5 Sales. "This marks a record setting sales weekend in China and the Company remains on track to launch in 100 countries by the end of the year. In our view, this is a positive as the company continues to outpace the previous iPhone 4S launch setting up for a positive Dec-qtr...?With a smaller Smartphone selling base in China we believe the record sales are a positive for the company. Notably, this growth excludes China Mobile which is the largest mobile operator in the world with ~700M subscribers and 75.6M 3G customers. We previously estimated that the addition of China Mobile could add ~$3 to Apple's EPS or ~$45 to its stock price with sales of 10-16M units in its first 12 months of availability." ????Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster:?Demand Remains Strong, Lower Priced Phone Inevitable. "Given the recent noise around Apple over the past week, we believe there are three core points to take away. First, based on our work in the US and the 2 million iPhone 5s sold in China this past weekend, we believe demand for iPhone remains strong. Second, for iPhone in 2013, we remain comfortable with our iPhone estimates. Typically, suppliers reduce production in the quarter following a new iPhone release. While some suppliers suggest a 20-30% q/q step down in March, it is difficult to say what inventory already exists in the channel to make an assumption on March units. Third, and most uniquely to our point of view, we believe the bigger picture around all of the iPhone unit speculation points to the fact that Apple needs to introduce a lower priced device for emerging markets. We expect the device by 2014 or potentially earlier." |
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