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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

圖解智能手機(jī)雙雄大戰(zhàn)

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年02月18日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
最新市場調(diào)查統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字顯示,,蘋果iOS與谷歌Android目前占據(jù)了全球智能手機(jī)市場90%的份額,。數(shù)字同時(shí)顯示,雖然Android的市場份額在絕對數(shù)字上遙遙領(lǐng)先,,但它的增速已經(jīng)開始進(jìn)入平臺(tái)期,;而iOS的市場份額則隨著iPhone 5 的上市和iPhone 4以及iPhone 4s價(jià)格的下調(diào),再次出現(xiàn)增長趨勢,。

來源:IDC(上)以及康姆斯科(下)

????美國咨詢公司高德納(Gartner)于上周三發(fā)布了《全球手機(jī)銷量》報(bào)告,,IDC和康姆斯科(comScore)緊隨其后,雙雙于上周四發(fā)布了彩色柱狀圖,,表明各自對智能手機(jī)大戰(zhàn)當(dāng)前戰(zhàn)況的看法——IDC(上)分析了全球市場,,而康姆斯科(下)則分析了美國國內(nèi)市場的狀況。

????筆者的見解是:

????? 以上兩張圖表都清晰地表明,,智能手機(jī)市場已呈兩虎相爭之勢,,不論是在美國國內(nèi)還是全球市場,蘋果(Apple)iOS和谷歌(Google)Android都占據(jù)了90%以上的市場份額,。落敗者們看來唯有期盼奇跡才有可能追上,。

????? 雖然Android的全球市場份額在2012年增至約70%,但據(jù)IDC和高德納(參見下方統(tǒng)計(jì))的數(shù)據(jù),,Android的增速在第三季度趨于平穩(wěn),。關(guān)于這點(diǎn),IDC的季度圖(上)比康姆斯科的3個(gè)月平均變化圖(下)更明顯,。

????? 雖然蘋果在2012年底的全球市場份額(約21%)小于它在2011年年底的份額(約23%),,但從IDC的柱狀圖中可以看出,上個(gè)季度,,隨著iPhone5發(fā)布,、iPhone 4和iPhone 4S降價(jià),,蘋果的市場份額再度呈現(xiàn)上升態(tài)勢。

????IDC和高德納的數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)如下所示:

????Hard on the heels of Gartner's Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales report Wednesday, IDC and comScore both released colorful bar graphs Thursday representing their view of the current state of the smartphone wars -- the world war (top) from IDC, and U.S. war (bottom) from comScore.

????A few observations:

????? The extent to which the smartphone wars have become a two-man race is clear in both charts, with Apple's (AAPL) iOS and Google's (GOOG) Android controlling more than 90% of both the U.S. and the worldwide markets. The also-rans would have to execute sharp uphill sprints to catch up.

????? Although Android's worldwide market share grew to approximately 70% in 2012 according to both IDC and Gartner (see spreadsheets below the fold), Android's rate of growth leveled off in the third quarter. That's easier to see in IDC's quarter-by-quarter chart (top) than in comScore's three-month moving average (bottom).

????? Although Apple finished 2012 with a smaller global market share than it enjoyed at the end of 2011 (about 21% vs. about 23%), you can see in IDC's bar graph that it was re-gaining share last quarter, after the release of the iPhone 5 and the price cuts on the iPhone 4 and 4S.

????Below: IDC's and Gartner's spreadsheets.

IDC:發(fā)貨量

高德納:終端用戶銷量

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

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