分析師：2000元迷你iPhone能讓蘋果中國份額翻三番
|
????蘋果（Apple）正面臨著市值跳水的窘境,，蘋果股價從去年9月至今已下跌了35%。眾多賣方分析師紛紛獻(xiàn)計(jì)獻(xiàn)策,，現(xiàn)在甚至有人建議蘋果推出廉價iPhone,。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）公司的凱蒂?休伯蒂對中國這一全球最大的智能手機(jī)市場進(jìn)行了分析，并給大家算了一筆賬,。 ????周二,，她在給客戶的一封信里提出了下面幾個觀點(diǎn)，令我耳目一新： ????? 人們大多認(rèn)為,，中國的智能手機(jī)只會越來越便宜,。與此相反,，她援引一些研究結(jié)果,，表明去年中國智能手機(jī)的平均售價趨于穩(wěn)定。同時隨著中國用戶開始購買品質(zhì)更好的智能手機(jī),，售價實(shí)際上已開始走高,。 ????? 蘋果公司可以推出一款售價2,000元人民幣（330美元）的迷你iPhone，這樣就能和聯(lián)想（Lenovo）,、華為（Huawei）,、中興（ZTE）和酷派（Coolpad）的旗艦產(chǎn)品相抗衡了。 ????? 就算利潤率更低（比如40%）,，并且替代率為1/3（即全價iPhone的客戶流失三分之一）,，低價iPhone也能提高蘋果的營收和毛利潤（見上表）。 ????? 推出迷你iPhone后,，加上中國今年或明年頒發(fā)LTE執(zhí)照,，就能最終說服擁有7億用戶的中國移動（China Mobile）和蘋果簽約。 ????? 如果上述情況都變成現(xiàn)實(shí),，休伯蒂估計(jì)蘋果在中國智能手機(jī)市場上已跌至10%的份額將會提高三倍,，達(dá)到近30%。 ????當(dāng)然，這得取決于蘋果是否能設(shè)法用更便宜的零部件,、更慢的處理器,、分辨率更低的屏幕、以及也許是塑料機(jī)身來造出一部330美元的iPhone,。而用蒂姆?庫克上周在高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）一次會議上的話說,，它決不能是個“低劣產(chǎn)品”。 ????譯者：清遠(yuǎn) |
????Adding to the growing literature of sell-side analysts who think the answer to Apple's (AAPL) market valuation woes (down 35% since September) is a low-cost iPhone, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has looked at China, the world's largest smartphone market, and done the math. ????She made several points in a note to clients Tuesday that struck me as new: ????? Contrary to the consensus view -- which assumes that smartphones in China will only get cheaper -- she cites research showing that the average selling price stablized last year and has actually started to increase as Chinese users trade up to higher-quality smartphones. ????? That Apple could launch a 2,000 yuan ($330) iPhone mini and be competitive with flagship products from Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad. ????? That even at a lower profit margin (say, 40%) and a 1/3 cannibalization rate (i.e. customers buy one third fewer full-priced iPhones), the cheaper iPhone would increase Apple's revenue and gross profits (see her spreadsheet above). ????? That an iPhone mini and a LTE license from the Chinese government this year or next could finally persuade China Mobile (CHL), with 700 million subscribers, to cut a deal with Apple. ????? If all this comes to pass, Huberty estimates that Apple's addressable smartphone market in China, which had dwindled to 10%, could triple to nearly 30%. ????This assumes, of course, that Apple can find a way to build a $330 iPhone with cheaper parts, a slower processor, a lower resolution screen and perhaps a plastic body, that isn't, in the phrase Tim Cook used at a Goldman Sachs conference last week, "a crappy product." |
最新文章