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專欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

蘋(píng)果能否奪回智能手機(jī)霸主地位,?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月19日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話,。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò),。要知道,,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司,。
曾經(jīng)有兩個(gè)季度,,蘋(píng)果在智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)獨(dú)占鰲頭,但隨著三星異軍突起,,這樣的好光景恐怕已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了,。

????

????就三星(Samsung)Galaxy S4對(duì)蘋(píng)果(Apple)造成的影響,瑞士報(bào)紙《時(shí)報(bào)》(Le Temps)財(cái)經(jīng)版副主編阿諾和?賽德塔基采訪了美國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪烏,,而且問(wèn)了一個(gè)似乎非常合理的問(wèn)題:

????問(wèn):蘋(píng)果能否奪回在智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)先地位,?怎樣做才有可能,?

????秉承一貫風(fēng)格,德迪烏用一幅圖表給出了回答:

????答:蘋(píng)果曾領(lǐng)導(dǎo)手機(jī)市場(chǎng)兩個(gè)季度(見(jiàn)圖表),。

????認(rèn)為蘋(píng)果曾長(zhǎng)期主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)不過(guò)是錯(cuò)覺(jué),。除非某家公司的產(chǎn)品陣容龐大,而且在所有市場(chǎng)銷售,,否則要想登上頭把交椅相當(dāng)困難,。蘋(píng)果手機(jī)的運(yùn)營(yíng)商銷售網(wǎng)絡(luò)尚不足三星的一半,而且蘋(píng)果每年僅推出一款新產(chǎn)品,。

????此外,,蘋(píng)果采用的分銷模式使得iPhone的價(jià)格極高。它的主要買家是幾年前做出大批量購(gòu)買承諾的運(yùn)營(yíng)商,。iPhone的定價(jià)戰(zhàn)略可概括為“撇脂法”,,只瞄準(zhǔn)最能帶來(lái)盈利的客戶,而不是注重市場(chǎng)占有率的“滲透法”,。因此,,蘋(píng)果能有如今這樣的出貨量已經(jīng)很令人驚訝了。

????閱讀采訪全文可登錄Asymco.com,。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????In an interview about the impact of Samsung's Galaxy S4 on Apple (AAPL), Anouch Seydtaghi, deputy economics editor for the Swiss newspaper Le Temps, asked Asymco's Horace Dediu what seemed like a perfectly reasonable question:

????Q: Can Apple regain the lead in the smartphone market? If yes, how?

????Dediu responded, characteristically, with a chart:

????A: Apple had leadership in the phone market for two quarters (see graphic).

????It's a myth to think that Apple was dominant for any extended period of time. The top spot is very difficult to obtain unless a company has a large portfolio of products which are sold in all markets. Apple has less than half the operator distribution of Samsung and keeps only one new product in the market each year.

????Apple also has a very high price due to the distribution model it uses for the iPhone. The primary buyers are operators who made large volume purchase commitments a few years ago. The iPhone strategy can be summarized as "skimming" where they pick the most profitable customers rather than "penetration" where there is a focus on market share. It's therefore very surprising that Apple was able to ship as many phones as it did.

????You can read the rest of the interview at Asymco.com.

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