今日圖表：蘋果應(yīng)該抓住低端手機市場商機
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????上周四,，蘇格蘭皇家銀行（RBC）的阿米特?達萊納尼在一份發(fā)給客戶的報告中運用Strategy Analytics的市場研究,，對售價300美元的iPhone 5C可能為蘋果（Apple）貢獻多少利潤進行了估算,。 ????即便考慮到大幅折扣的iPhone 4，迄今為止,，蘋果的銷量也只有2%來自于售價低于300美元的iPhone手機,。【相比之下,，三星（Samsung）有60%的智能手機銷量來自價格不超過300美元的手機,。】 ????達萊納尼認(rèn)為,，這種狀況可能在本周蘋果新品發(fā)布會后發(fā)生改變：
????“我們相信蘋果將推出一款新手機,，開拓低端智能手機市場。我們預(yù)計到2014日歷年,，這個市場的規(guī)模將達到5億美元左右,。在我們看來，蘋果應(yīng)能迅速滲透這個市場,，中期內(nèi)將滲透率提升至15%及之上（我們預(yù)計蘋果在高端市場擁有超過40%的市場份額）,。 ????“從每股收益角度來看，我們認(rèn)為,，成功推出廉價手機將使得蘋果每股收益在我們預(yù)計的2014年日歷年度39.74美元的基礎(chǔ)上增加4.00美元多,。以12倍的市盈率計算，這應(yīng)當(dāng)使蘋果股價上漲約50美元,。我們相信，我們給出的5,600萬部預(yù)測是保守的,，因為這只相當(dāng)于低端智能手機市場總銷量的12%,。”?（財富中文網(wǎng)） |
????In a note to clients Thursday, RBC's Amit Daryanani used Strategy Analytics' market research to estimate what a $300 iPhone 5C might do to Apple's (AAPL) bottom line. ????Even with the heavily discounted iPhone 4 in the mix, only 2% of Apple's unit sales so far have come from iPhones selling for less than $300. (Samsung, by contrast, gets 60% of its smartphone sales from devices that cost $300 or less.) ????Daryanani thinks that could change after next week's special event: ????"We believe Apple is going to capitalize on the low-end smartphone market by launching a new phone that will address what we consider to be a ~500M total addressable market in CY14E. In our view, AAPL should be able to quickly penetrate this market up to and beyond the 15% mark in the medium-term (we estimate AAPL has 40%+ share in the premium market). ????"From an EPS perspective we believe the Company can add $4.00+ in EPS to our CY14E estimate of $39.74, with a successful launch of an affordable iPhone. On a 12x multiple, this would add roughly $50 to Apple's stock-price. We believe our ~56M unit estimate is conservative given that it represents 12% of the total low-end Smartphone market."? |
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