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??? 摩根士丹利的分析師凱蒂?休伯蒂剛從中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)了一圈，她帶來(lái)了來(lái)自全球最重要的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的新鮮情報(bào),。

????在給客戶(hù)的一系列三份報(bào)告中,，休伯蒂稱(chēng)目前中國(guó)市場(chǎng)：

????? 庫(kù)存堆積：中國(guó)政府稱(chēng)上季度國(guó)內(nèi)新智能手機(jī)的需求同比下降了9％，而IDC報(bào)告稱(chēng),，中國(guó)地區(qū)的手機(jī)出貨量上升了37％,。休伯蒂表示,，中國(guó)運(yùn)營(yíng)商正削減市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)費(fèi)用和手機(jī)補(bǔ)貼,，等待政府發(fā)放4G牌照。

????? iPhone 6蓄勢(shì)待發(fā)：休伯蒂接觸到的大部分蘋(píng)果分包商,，都預(yù)期到12月,，iPhone 6的需求將比去年圣誕期間的熱賣(mài)機(jī)型iPhone 5S高出20％,。休伯蒂個(gè)人預(yù)計(jì)需求漲幅為12％。

????? 大屏效應(yīng)：同時(shí),，AlphaWise四月為摩根士丹利進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查表明,，大屏iPhone——傳聞iPhone 6將是一款大屏手機(jī)——將幫助蘋(píng)果在美國(guó)多獲得11％的市場(chǎng)份額。

????買(mǎi)家請(qǐng)注意了：去年夏天摩根士丹利進(jìn)行的預(yù)測(cè)不太準(zhǔn)：

????下圖：休伯蒂根據(jù)上述發(fā)現(xiàn)調(diào)整了其智能手機(jī)模型,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????Katy Huberty is back from a trip abroad with fresh intelligence from the world's most important smartphone market: China.

????In a series of three "takeaway" notes to clients, she reports:

????? Inventory pile-up: The Chinese government is saying demand for new smartphones fell 9% year-over-year last quarter even as IDC reports shipments of phones into the region rising 37%. Huberty says the Chinese carriers are spending less on marketing and subsidies as they wait for the government to issue 4G licenses.

????? iPhone 6 build-up: Most of the Apple subcontractors she spoke to expect demand for the new iPhone 6 by December will be 20% better than demand was for last year's big Christmas seller, the iPhone 5S. Huberty was only expecting 12% growth.

????? Big-screen boost: Meanwhile, an April survey for Morgan Stanley by AlphaWise suggests that a larger-screen iPhone -- as the iPhone 6 is rumored to be -- could buy Apple 11 points of market share in the U.S.

????Buyer beware: This Morgan Stanley prediction from last summer didn't quite pan out:

????Below: How Huberty's findings have changed her smartphone model.