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????《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（WSJ）上周五報(bào)道稱,，雅虎（Yahoo）正與閱后即焚應(yīng)用公司Snapchat洽談投資事宜。我隨后指出,，該交易將與雅虎最近的聲明背道而馳,，該公司曾表示，企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本投資是一項(xiàng)令人分心的“業(yè)余愛(ài)好”,。

????當(dāng)時(shí),，有些讀者給我發(fā)電子郵件，稱我未得要領(lǐng),，其中頗具代表性的看法來(lái)自一位名為賴安的讀者,。賴安簡(jiǎn)明扼要的寫道：“雅虎有能力投資Snapchat，是因?yàn)樗鼘?duì)阿里巴巴的早期投資帶來(lái)了巨大回報(bào),。雅虎可能將Snapchat視為自己獲得超高回報(bào)的又一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì),。”

????不,，雅虎不這么看,，因?yàn)檫@是不可能的。

????說(shuō)實(shí)話,，我無(wú)意給Snapchat的未來(lái)下定論,，但我下面的分析只要具備小學(xué)四年級(jí)的數(shù)學(xué)水平就能看明白。

????雅虎原本向阿里巴巴投資了10億美元,，如果將以下三個(gè)因素考慮在內(nèi),，如今這筆投資已增值至約511億美元：（1）2012年的股票回購(gòu)計(jì)劃，其中包括了63億美元現(xiàn)金,；（2）本次IPO,，雅虎出售阿里持股狂賺約94億美元；以及（3）雅虎仍然持有的阿里巴巴股份,，目前價(jià)值約354億美元,。換言之，雅虎這筆投資的回報(bào)率約為51倍,。

????據(jù)報(bào)道雅虎將對(duì)Snapchat投資約2000萬(wàn)美元,，對(duì)Snapchat的估值為100億美元。這筆投資要產(chǎn)生高達(dá)51倍的回報(bào)率，Snapchat的估值將需要達(dá)到5010億美元左右,。若果真如此,，Snapchat將成為在美國(guó)交易所掛牌的第二大企業(yè)，市值僅低于蘋果（Apple）,。如此一來(lái),，Snapchat的市值將比目前排在第二位的能源巨頭埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）高出1000億美元,，更別提微軟（Microsoft）,、強(qiáng)生（Johnson & Johnson）、富國(guó)銀行（Wells Fargo）,、通用電氣（General Electric）,、沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）之流了。阿里巴巴就更不用提了,，該公司的市值僅約2160億美元,。

????而事實(shí)上，Snapchat至今尚未產(chǎn)生收益,，即便該公司莫名成為了蘋果公司那樣的異類,，雅虎也不會(huì)獲得投資阿里那樣的巨額回報(bào)，因?yàn)樗鼘?duì)Snapchat投資的金額要小得多,。即便Snapchat能為雅虎帶來(lái)51倍的回報(bào)率,，雅虎的投資也不過(guò)將增值到剛剛超過(guò)10億美元。該投資將是相對(duì)較小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)帶來(lái)驚人回報(bào)的典范,，但它遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)給未來(lái)的雅虎帶來(lái)如今從投資阿里那兒獲得的巨大財(cái)務(wù)靈活性,。

????雅虎對(duì)Snapchat的預(yù)期投資引出許多問(wèn)題。但有一點(diǎn)可以肯定,，那就是這筆投資難以續(xù)寫“阿里巴巴投資神話”,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Hunter

????After the WSJ reported last Friday that Yahoo YHOO -1.42% is in talks to invest in messaging company Snapchat, I pointed out that the deal would contradict a senior Yahoo’s recent statements about how corporate venture capital investing is a distracting “hobby.”

????A few readers emailed to suggest I missed the boat, mostly echoing the succinct Ryan: “Yahoo is able to invest in Snapchat because of the money it made from its earlier investment in Alibaba. It probably views this as its next Alibaba.”

????No, it doesn’t. Because it can’t.

????To be clear, I’m not saying this as an indictment of Snapchat. I’m saying it as someone who passed fourth-grade math.

????Yahoo’s original $1 billion investment in Alibaba BABA -0.72% is currently valued at around $51.1 billion, if you include three things: (1) The 2012 share buyback, which included $6.3 billion in cash; (2) The IPO, which generated around $9.4 billion for Alibaba; and (3) Yahoo’s remaining stock holdings in Alibaba, which are valued at around $35.4 billion. Or, put another way, a return of around 51x.

????Yahoo’s reported deal for Snapchat would be an investment of around $20 million at a $10 billion valuation. To get the same multiple, Snapchat would need to be valued at around $501 billion. For context, that would make it the second-largest company traded on a U.S. exchange, behind only Apple AAPL -0.87% . It would be more than $100 billion larger than current second-place company Exxon Mobil, and not to mention such companies as Microsoft MSFT -1.22% , Johnson & Johnson JNJ -2.36% , Wells Fargo WFC -1.83% , General Electric GE -1.63% and Wal-Mart WMT -0.06% . Not to mention Alibaba, which only is valued at around $216 billion.

????But even if Snapchat — a company that so far has yet to generate revenue — somehow becomes an Apple-like outlier, Yahoo still would not get the same bang because it’s putting in fewer bucks. Were Snapchat to hit the 51x mark, its investment would be worth just over $1 billion. That’s a phenomenal return on relatively little risk, but wouldn’t give future Yahoo anywhere near the financial flexibility that current Yahoo received from Alibaba.

????Yahoo’s anticipated investment in Snapchat raises a lot of questions. But one certain answer is that it will not be Alibaba, The Sequel.