????分析師有責(zé)任根據(jù)蘋(píng)果公司的指標(biāo)設(shè)定合理的估算參數(shù),。眾所周知,，蘋(píng)果公司非常保守，而且一貫如此,。公司確實(shí)給出了明確的范圍,，分析師應(yīng)該參照公司在相關(guān)季度的實(shí)際表現(xiàn)表現(xiàn)，將這一范圍視為上下浮動(dòng)的參數(shù),。蘋(píng)果公司不斷重申,，第4季度是一個(gè)過(guò)渡季。但分析師卻似乎并未理解這種暗示,。

????據(jù)湯姆森金融公司（Thomson Financial）報(bào)道,，分析人士普遍希望該季度蘋(píng)果公司能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)營(yíng)收297億美元。這比蘋(píng)果公司250億美元的季度指標(biāo)高出47億美元,。

????但有意思的是,，這一預(yù)測(cè)比蘋(píng)果公司的營(yíng)收指標(biāo)高出18.8%。這意味著,，如果分析人士對(duì)每個(gè)季度的預(yù)測(cè)均超出公司指標(biāo)18.8%,，那么除了第3財(cái)季，自金融危機(jī)以來(lái),，公司每個(gè)季度的營(yíng)收均低于預(yù)期,。

????這說(shuō)明什么問(wèn)題？蘋(píng)果本季度的表現(xiàn)超出平均水平,，但華爾街卻給出了一個(gè)不現(xiàn)實(shí)的數(shù)字,，完全背離了近期的歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。簡(jiǎn)直是不可理喻,。

????當(dāng)然分析人士也有自己的理由,。蘋(píng)果公司第3財(cái)季的表現(xiàn)確實(shí)超過(guò)正常的12% - 18%的范圍,，超出指標(biāo)24.22%。但蘋(píng)果之所以能在第3季度實(shí)現(xiàn)這么高地營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng),，很大程度上是由于公司iPad產(chǎn)品運(yùn)營(yíng)速度大大超過(guò)了蘋(píng)果公司自身的預(yù)期,。剛剛進(jìn)入第3財(cái)季時(shí)，蘋(píng)果公司是否會(huì)突破iPad 2的產(chǎn)量限制,，公司并無(wú)明確預(yù)期。而且當(dāng)時(shí)iPhone手機(jī)的表現(xiàn)也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出預(yù)期,。

????我們有時(shí)確實(shí)會(huì)遇到這樣的財(cái)季,，但這種情況極為罕見(jiàn)。而且,，在進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)建模時(shí),，最好是堅(jiān)持保守的立場(chǎng)。從這一角度而言,，分析師本應(yīng)領(lǐng)會(huì)蘋(píng)果的暗示,，根據(jù)蘋(píng)果公司過(guò)去的平均表現(xiàn)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。

????其實(shí),，蘋(píng)果公司此次的營(yíng)收下降根本不值得大驚小怪,。之所以引發(fā)如此關(guān)注，很大程度上是由于分析師們對(duì)自己的估算過(guò)分熱衷,。蘋(píng)果公司營(yíng)收下降的原因只不過(guò)是分析師的錯(cuò)誤,。如果這種說(shuō)法無(wú)法讓你信服，或許蘋(píng)果公司第1財(cái)季的指標(biāo)能讓你相信,，這種“增長(zhǎng)神話”還在上演,。

????蘋(píng)果公司給出的370億美元收入指標(biāo)顯示，公司同比營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)幅度將達(dá)到60%,，每股利潤(rùn)率達(dá)77.7%,。而且，為了實(shí)現(xiàn)420億美元的營(yíng)收指標(biāo),，iPhone手機(jī)的銷(xiāo)量必須比去年同期翻一番,，達(dá)到3,300萬(wàn)臺(tái)。去年同期iPhone手機(jī)的銷(xiāo)量為1,623.5萬(wàn)臺(tái),。

????不論是營(yíng)收還是每股利潤(rùn),，蘋(píng)果公司均遙遙領(lǐng)先于微軟（Microsoft）。對(duì)于這樣一家公司而言,，如果說(shuō)第1財(cái)季的每股利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)到77.7%,，這是否有些滑稽？如果收回現(xiàn)金,，明年公司的市盈率為5倍,；反之,，則為8倍，這豈不是更加滑稽,？

????本文作者安迪?M?扎克為Bullish Cross資產(chǎn)管理公司基金經(jīng)理,，并負(fù)責(zé)運(yùn)營(yíng)財(cái)務(wù)網(wǎng)站Bullish Cross。

????譯者：阿龍/汪皓

????It's the job of analysts to make sure that they set reasonable parameters to their estimates based on how Apple guides. Everyone knows that Apple is conservative, but they are consistently conservative. They do offer a clear-cut range, which should be the upper and lower parameters based on the quality of the quarter. This quarter, Apple harped on the fact that this would be a transition quarter. Yet, analysts didn't seem to take the hint.

????The analyst consensus for the quarter was calling for Apple to report revenue of $29.7 billion according to Thomson Financial. That is $4.7 billion above Apple's $25 billion guidance on the quarter.

????Now what's interesting about this revenue consensus is that it was 18.8% above Apple's revenue guidance. That means if you exclude fiscal Q3, Apple would have missed in every single quarter since the financial crisis if analysts had modeled for that same 18.8% revenue beat in each of those quarters.

????What does that say about analyst expectations this quarter? Apple beat by its usual number, but Wall Street modeled for a number that was simply unrealistic by recent historical standard. This is completely insane.

????Now in defense of the analysts, Apple did report a number that was beyond the normal 12%-18% range we've seen in the past in fiscal Q3. In fiscal Q3, Apple reported a 24.22% beat. But a huge part of that beat had to do with Apple being able to get its iPad production up and running a lot faster than even Apple expected. Going into fiscal Q3, there wasn't a whole lot of clarity as to whether Apple would be able to get any traction with iPad 2 production constraints. We also had a much stronger than expected iPhone number.

????We tend to see quarters like this from time to time but they tend to be the rarity. Moreover, when it comes to modeling, it's always better to be conservative and to take the conservative stance. In this sense, analysts really should have taken a hint from Apple and modeled for the same type of earnings beat that Apple has typically delivered in the past.

????In the end, this miss is just a minor blip largely due to analysts simply getting a little overzealous with their estimates. If you're not convinced that Apple's miss was due to nothing more than a mistake by analysts, perhaps Apple's fiscal Q1 guidance can convince you that the growth story is still in tact.

????Apple's $37 billion revenue guidance suggests that the company is going to report 60% year-over-year revenue growth and 77.7% EPS growth. Moreover, in order for Apple to report $42 billion in revenue as indicated by its guidance, the company would have to report sales of about 33 million iPhones. That is a 100% growth rate for the iPhone above the 16.235 million iPhones Apple sold in the same quarter last year.

????For a company that has far eclipsed Microsoft in both revenue and EPS, doesn't it seem a little ludicrous that Apple is going to produce 77.7% EPS growth in fiscal Q1? Doesn't it seem even more ludicrous that the company trades at only five time next year's earnings if you back out cash and only eight times next year's earnings if you don't back out the cash?

????Andy M. Zaky is a fund manager at Bullish Cross Asset Management and runs the financial newsletter, Bullish Cross.