????雖然有這些結(jié)構(gòu)性變化,，美國(guó)大銀行依然聲稱(chēng),，將能把股東權(quán)益回報(bào)率重新提升至兩位數(shù)，接近危機(jī)前的水平,。投資者和分析師們姑且信之,，但迄今失望透頂。人們普遍認(rèn)為是這些銀行的員工聰明,，富有創(chuàng)新意識(shí),，人脈又廣，他們總會(huì)找到辦法,，能解決自己制造的麻煩,，回避新的監(jiān)管限制，再度大賺其錢(qián),。

????但現(xiàn)在看來(lái),，這似乎永遠(yuǎn)也不會(huì)出現(xiàn)了。誠(chéng)然,，銀行們會(huì)盈利,，但30%以上的股東權(quán)益回報(bào)率已遠(yuǎn)去。剝離風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性自營(yíng)交易和附屬投資資金后,，這些銀行的經(jīng)紀(jì)-交易業(yè)務(wù)和零售銀行業(yè)務(wù)的利潤(rùn)率都非常低,。

????目前，這些銀行致力于通過(guò)削減支出來(lái)提高股東權(quán)益回報(bào)率,。它們?cè)跍p少浪費(fèi)方面大多較為成功,，但再砍下去就會(huì)抑制其業(yè)務(wù)模式。展望未來(lái),，如果它們對(duì)提高權(quán)益回報(bào)率是認(rèn)真的,，就必須要提高客戶的服務(wù)費(fèi)用或大幅削減員工薪酬,。

????提高客戶的服務(wù)費(fèi)用，目前來(lái)看似乎對(duì)經(jīng)紀(jì)和零售銀行業(yè)務(wù)打擊沉重,。薪酬是銀行有直接控制力的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域,。雖然銀行支付給員工的實(shí)際金額呈現(xiàn)下降，但相比銀行總營(yíng)收,，薪酬變化不大,，有些個(gè)案反而是上升。事實(shí)上,，今年高盛將薪酬比率從39%提高到了42%,，即便營(yíng)收下降了26%。

????毫不遜色的是摩根士丹利,，51%的薪酬比率是大銀行中最高的,，與去年水平差不多。摩根大通的投行薪酬比率則顯著低于高盛和摩根士丹利,，僅為34%,。這或許一定程度上可以解釋為何摩根大通的股東權(quán)益回報(bào)率高于高盛和摩根士丹利之和。

????今年將是銀行業(yè)的關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)折年,。要想提高股東權(quán)益回報(bào)率,，它們所需做的不僅僅是恢復(fù)正常的經(jīng)營(yíng)情況，還要大幅上調(diào)收費(fèi),、削減薪酬,。與此同時(shí)，投資者和分析師們則需要重新思考在二十一世紀(jì)銀行意味著什么,，并對(duì)銀行的賺錢(qián)能力持更現(xiàn)實(shí)的態(tài)度,。

????但也不是毫無(wú)希望。雖然在不遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)這些銀行可能不會(huì)再有30%以上的股東權(quán)益回報(bào)率,，但如果它們與時(shí)俱進(jìn),，仍有望實(shí)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁的盈利。

????Despite the structural changes, the banks still maintain that they will be able to boost their returns on equity back up to double-digits, close to where they were before the crisis. Investors and analysts have been giving the banks the benefit of the doubt, but have since been sorely disappointed. The common view is that the employees at these firms are so smart, innovative and connected that they will find some way to get out of the mess they created, dodge the new regulatory constraints and eventually return to minting money.

????But it's now looking as if that will never happen. Sure, the banks will make a profit, but gone are the days where it could make ROE's north of 30%. Stripping out the risky proprietary trading and ancillary investing silos, the banks' broker-dealer and retail banking businesses are pretty low margin.

????For now, the banks are focusing on cutting spending to boost their ROE. They have largely been successful in cutting waste, but there is only so much they can cut without jeopardizing their business models. Going forward, the banks will need to either force their clients to pay more for the services they offer or cut employee compensation dramatically if they are serious about upping their ROE.

????Getting customers to pay more for services seems to have been a bust so far on both the brokerage and retail banking ends. Compensation is the one area that the banks have direct control over. While the amount the banks pay their employees has fallen in real terms, it has not budged relative to the firm's overall revenues and in some cases, it's actually gone up. Goldman actually increased its compensation ratio this year to 42% from 39%, even though revenues at the firm were down by 26%.

????Not to be upstaged, Morgan Stanley had the highest compensation ratio of the big banks at 51%, which is roughly where it was last year. Meanwhile, JP Morgan's investment bank had a compensation ratio that was significantly lower than that of Goldman or Morgan Stanley at just 34%. That might explain in part why JP Morgan's ROE was higher than that of both Goldman and Morgan Stanley, combined.

????This year will be a critical turning point for the banks. They will need more than just a return to normal business conditions to boost their ROE -- they will need to raise fees and cut compensation aggressively. At the same time, investors and analysts need to rethink what it means to be a bank in the 21st century and be more realistic about the industry's ability to make money.

????But it isn't all doom and gloom. While the banks probably won't report an ROE above 30% in the near future, they can still post some pretty strong profits if they roll with the times.